Inseason Bonneville Dam Chinook salmon passage predictions

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Last updated 09/02/2025.

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spring

The cumulative spring season adult Chinook passage at Bonneville Dam through June 15, 2025 is 146,061. The 10-year (2015–2024) average proportion of the count that has occurred at Bonneville Dam through June 15 is 100%. Based on the cumulative counts to date and this proportion, the expected total spring (Mar 1–Jun 15) season dam count would be 146,134 (95% prediction interval = 146,134 – 146,134 and 50% prediction interval = 146,134 – 146,134) adult Chinook.

Current year

Daily adult chinook salmon counts, flow, and temperature measurements taken at Bonneville Dam.

Percent complete

Percent of the run complete by date in 2010–2024. Lower and upper hinges correspond to the first and third quartiles (the 25th and 75th percentiles).The upper whisker extends from the hinge to the largest value no further than 1.5 * IQR from the hinge (where IQR is the inter-quartile range, or distance between the first and third quartiles). The lower whisker extends from the hinge to the smallest value at most 1.5 * IQR of the hinge. Data beyond the end of the whiskers are called "outlying" points and are plotted individually.

Prediction error

Mean absolute percent error (over 15 year retrospectiv) of predictions based on cumulative counts and 10-year average run timing, by day of year.

Run size predictions

Prediction table

Predictions of the fall season (Mar 1–Jun 15) total adult Chinook salmon count with prediction intervals (50% and 95%) and the mean absolute percent error (MAPE) of predictions made with counts through June 15 in a 15-year retrospective assesment.

Model	Pred	Lo 951	Lo 501	Hi 501	Hi 951	MAPE
10-year ave. timing	146,134	146,134	146,134	146,134	146,134	0%
1 Prediction intervals for different model types are calculated using different methods, which complicates comparison somewhat. See Methods Description for more detail.

Prediction plot

Daily predictions of total counts at Bonneville from different models.

Prediction interval plot

Daily predictions and prediction intervals (95% and 50%). Prediction intervals for different model types are calculated using different methods, so may not be directly comparable. See Methods Description for more details.

Methods description

DLM

This is a penalized dynamic linear model fit with the Sibregresr package. The coefficients are the:

1. log-transformed total count of jacks at Bonneville Dam in the previous year,
2. log-transformed cumulative adult count at Bonneville Dam in the current year,
3. and interaction between an exponential moving average of river discharge and the cumulative adult count.

The prediction interval is based on the standard deviation (in log-space) of forecasts from a 15-year retrospective. In other words, the root mean square error of the forecast error in log space from a 15-year retrospective is used as the standard deviation in a lognormal prediction interval.

ARIMA

This is an ensemble of ARIMA models fit with the SalmonForecasting package (see README at the linked page for details). The covariates are the same as those described above for the DLM. Prediction intervals are the weighted average of the prediction intervals provided by the forecast::forecast() function in R.

Joint likelihood

This is a version of a model that has been used for this purpose of in-season forecasting for several years. The proportion of the run that is complete on a given day is modeled with autoregressive (order 1) errors and an effect of the river discharge covariate. The pre-season forecast is generated using an age-specific sibling regression. I have not yet implemented a retrospective assessment of performance because, in this version, the pre-season forecasts and prediction uncertainty need to be provided, and I have not pulled in the past 15 years’ forecasts.

10 year average run timing

This method takes the 10-year average of the proportion of the run that was complete on a given day and uses it to expand the cumulative counts to date. Performance and prediction intervals are based on a 15-year retrospective as described above for the DLM but assuming a normal prediction distribution for the proportion complete in logit space.

Average timing info

10-year average

Prediction

Date	Daily counts	Cumulative count	10 Days Early	9 Days Early	8 Days Early	7 Days Early	6 Days Early	5 Days Early	4 Days Early	3 Days Early	2 Days Early	1 Days Early	10yr Average	1 Days Late	2 Days Late	3 Days Late	4 Days Late	5 Days Late	6 Days Late	7 Days Late	8 Days Late	9 Days Late	10 Days Late
15-Jun	1,432	146,061	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	146,134	148,644	151,146	153,570	156,031	158,447	161,076	163,673	166,200	168,976	171,422
14-Jun	1,670	144,629	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	144,701	147,187	149,664	152,064	154,502	156,893	159,496	162,069	164,571	167,319	169,741	172,267
13-Jun	1,533	142,959	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	143,031	145,487	147,936	150,308	152,718	155,082	157,655	160,197	162,670	165,387	167,781	170,278	172,866
12-Jun	1,894	141,426	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	141,497	143,927	146,350	148,697	151,080	153,419	155,964	158,479	160,926	163,613	165,982	168,452	171,013	173,466
11-Jun	1,956	139,532	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	139,602	142,000	144,390	146,705	149,057	151,364	153,875	156,357	158,771	161,422	163,759	166,196	168,722	171,143	173,603
10-Jun	2,290	137,576	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	137,645	140,009	142,366	144,649	146,967	149,242	151,718	154,165	156,545	159,159	161,463	163,866	166,357	168,744	171,169	173,690
09-Jun	2,215	135,286	NA	NA	NA	NA	135,354	137,678	139,996	142,241	144,521	146,758	149,193	151,599	153,940	156,510	158,776	161,139	163,588	165,935	168,320	170,799	173,075
08-Jun	1,838	133,071	NA	NA	NA	133,138	135,424	137,704	139,912	142,155	144,355	146,750	149,117	151,419	153,948	156,176	158,500	160,910	163,218	165,564	168,002	170,241	172,731
07-Jun	2,010	131,233	NA	NA	131,299	133,554	135,802	137,980	140,191	142,361	144,723	147,057	149,328	151,821	154,019	156,311	158,687	160,964	163,277	165,682	167,889	170,345	172,993
06-Jun	2,054	129,223	NA	129,288	131,508	133,722	135,866	138,044	140,181	142,507	144,805	147,041	149,496	151,660	153,917	156,257	158,498	160,777	163,144	165,318	167,736	170,343	172,907
05-Jun	1,457	127,169	127,233	129,418	131,596	133,707	135,850	137,953	140,242	142,503	144,703	147,120	149,249	151,471	153,773	155,979	158,221	160,551	162,690	165,070	167,635	170,159	173,065
04-Jun	1,367	125,712	127,935	130,089	132,175	134,293	136,372	138,635	140,871	143,045	145,434	147,539	149,735	152,011	154,192	156,408	158,711	160,826	163,179	165,715	168,209	171,083	173,996
03-Jun	1,172	124,345	128,674	130,738	132,833	134,889	137,127	139,339	141,490	143,853	145,935	148,107	150,358	152,515	154,707	156,986	159,078	161,405	163,913	166,380	169,222	172,104	175,016
02-Jun	1,131	123,173	129,505	131,581	133,618	135,835	138,025	140,156	142,497	144,560	146,711	148,941	151,078	153,249	155,506	157,578	159,883	162,368	164,812	167,627	170,481	173,367	177,156
01-Jun	1,413	122,042	130,373	132,391	134,587	136,758	138,869	141,188	143,232	145,364	147,573	149,691	151,842	154,078	156,131	158,415	160,877	163,298	166,088	168,916	171,775	175,529	179,758
31-May	1,523	120,629	130,858	133,029	135,175	137,262	139,554	141,574	143,681	145,865	147,958	150,084	152,294	154,324	156,581	159,014	161,408	164,165	166,960	169,786	173,497	177,677	181,869
30-May	1,076	119,106	131,350	133,468	135,529	137,792	139,786	141,867	144,023	146,089	148,189	150,371	152,375	154,604	157,007	159,370	162,092	164,852	167,642	171,307	175,434	179,573	184,351
29-May	1,113	118,030	132,262	134,304	136,547	138,524	140,585	142,722	144,770	146,850	149,013	150,999	153,207	155,588	157,930	160,628	163,363	166,128	169,759	173,849	177,951	182,686	187,136
28-May	1,166	116,917	133,038	135,259	137,217	139,259	141,376	143,405	145,466	147,608	149,575	151,763	154,121	156,441	159,113	161,823	164,561	168,158	172,209	176,273	180,963	185,372	189,211
27-May	1,216	115,751	133,910	135,849	137,871	139,966	141,974	144,015	146,136	148,083	150,249	152,584	154,881	157,527	160,209	162,920	166,481	170,492	174,515	179,158	183,523	187,324	191,668
26-May	1,678	114,535	134,422	136,422	138,496	140,483	142,502	144,600	146,527	148,671	150,981	153,254	155,872	158,526	161,209	164,732	168,701	172,681	177,276	181,595	185,356	189,655	195,249
25-May	1,332	112,857	134,424	136,467	138,425	140,414	142,482	144,381	146,493	148,769	151,008	153,588	156,203	158,847	162,319	166,229	170,151	174,679	178,934	182,641	186,876	192,388	199,427
24-May	1,292	111,525	134,856	136,791	138,757	140,800	142,677	144,764	147,013	149,226	151,775	154,360	156,972	160,403	164,267	168,143	172,617	176,823	180,485	184,670	190,118	197,073	204,207
23-May	1,125	110,233	135,206	137,150	139,169	141,024	143,087	145,310	147,497	150,017	152,571	155,153	158,545	162,364	166,195	170,617	174,774	178,394	182,531	187,915	194,790	201,841	208,928
22-May	1,261	109,108	135,750	137,749	139,584	141,626	143,827	145,992	148,486	151,014	153,570	156,927	160,707	164,499	168,876	172,990	176,574	180,668	185,997	192,802	199,781	206,796	214,755
21-May	1,389	107,847	136,157	137,971	139,990	142,165	144,305	146,770	149,269	151,795	155,113	158,850	162,598	166,924	170,991	174,533	178,580	183,848	190,574	197,473	204,406	212,273	222,224
20-May	1,629	106,458	136,194	138,187	140,334	142,446	144,880	147,347	149,840	153,115	156,804	160,504	164,775	168,789	172,285	176,280	181,480	188,119	194,929	201,773	209,539	219,362	232,178
19-May	2,804	104,829	136,072	138,187	140,267	142,663	145,092	147,547	150,772	154,405	158,048	162,253	166,206	169,649	173,583	178,703	185,240	191,946	198,686	206,332	216,005	228,626	242,321
18-May	2,169	102,025	134,490	136,515	138,847	141,211	143,601	146,740	150,275	153,820	157,913	161,760	165,111	168,940	173,923	180,286	186,812	193,371	200,813	210,228	222,510	235,840	250,591
17-May	2,522	99,856	133,612	135,895	138,209	140,548	143,620	147,080	150,550	154,556	158,321	161,601	165,348	170,225	176,453	182,841	189,260	196,544	205,758	217,780	230,826	245,263	261,723
16-May	2,234	97,334	132,463	134,718	136,998	139,993	143,365	146,748	150,653	154,323	157,519	161,172	165,926	171,996	178,223	184,480	191,580	200,562	212,280	224,996	239,069	255,113	275,776
15-May	2,271	95,100	131,626	133,854	136,780	140,075	143,380	147,195	150,781	153,904	157,473	162,118	168,049	174,132	180,246	187,183	195,958	207,407	219,832	233,582	249,258	269,447	292,438
14-May	1,562	92,829	130,657	133,513	136,730	139,956	143,680	147,180	150,229	153,712	158,246	164,036	169,974	175,942	182,713	191,279	202,454	214,582	228,004	243,305	263,012	285,454	315,253
13-May	1,367	91,267	131,267	134,429	137,601	141,262	144,704	147,701	151,126	155,584	161,275	167,114	172,981	179,639	188,060	199,048	210,972	224,167	239,211	258,587	280,651	309,948	345,558
12-May	2,030	89,900	132,416	135,540	139,146	142,536	145,489	148,862	153,253	158,860	164,611	170,390	176,948	185,244	196,066	207,812	220,810	235,629	254,714	276,448	305,306	340,383	389,509
11-May	2,958	87,870	132,479	136,004	139,318	142,203	145,501	149,793	155,273	160,894	166,543	172,952	181,061	191,639	203,119	215,824	230,308	248,962	270,205	298,412	332,697	380,713	440,487
10-May	4,275	84,912	131,426	134,628	137,416	140,603	144,750	150,046	155,478	160,936	167,130	174,965	185,188	196,281	208,558	222,555	240,581	261,109	288,366	321,497	367,897	425,658	492,251
09-May	4,579	80,637	127,850	130,498	133,524	137,463	142,491	147,650	152,834	158,716	166,157	175,864	186,399	198,058	211,350	228,469	247,963	273,848	305,311	349,375	404,228	467,468	549,633
08-May	5,804	76,058	123,088	125,942	129,657	134,400	139,265	144,155	149,703	156,721	165,878	175,815	186,811	199,349	215,495	233,883	258,297	287,974	329,536	381,274	440,922	518,422	621,539
07-May	6,690	70,254	116,331	119,763	124,144	128,638	133,155	138,279	144,762	153,220	162,398	172,556	184,136	199,051	216,035	238,587	265,998	304,389	352,179	407,275	478,861	574,110	702,917
06-May	5,287	63,564	108,358	112,322	116,388	120,475	125,111	130,977	138,629	146,934	156,124	166,602	180,096	195,463	215,867	240,668	275,403	318,642	368,492	433,261	519,440	635,981	731,317
05-May	5,481	58,277	102,980	106,708	110,454	114,705	120,083	127,099	134,712	143,138	152,744	165,116	179,205	197,912	220,650	252,496	292,139	337,843	397,224	476,235	583,083	670,489	773,223
04-May	6,975	52,796	96,672	100,066	103,917	108,789	115,145	122,042	129,676	138,379	149,587	162,351	179,298	199,898	228,749	264,663	306,068	359,865	431,444	528,243	607,429	700,500	784,172
03-May	7,706	45,821	86,846	90,188	94,416	99,933	105,919	112,544	120,097	129,825	140,902	155,611	173,489	198,528	229,698	265,633	312,322	374,445	458,456	527,180	607,956	680,573	770,707
02-May	5,085	38,115	75,021	78,538	83,127	88,106	93,617	99,900	107,991	117,206	129,441	144,312	165,140	191,068	220,960	259,797	311,472	381,354	438,521	505,712	566,117	641,093	734,667
01-May	4,182	33,030	68,060	72,036	76,352	81,127	86,572	93,584	101,569	112,172	125,059	143,109	165,577	191,481	225,137	269,918	330,477	380,017	438,244	490,590	555,563	636,654	767,755
30-Apr	4,689	28,848	62,916	66,685	70,856	75,611	81,735	88,709	97,969	109,225	124,989	144,613	167,237	196,632	235,743	288,635	331,902	382,757	428,475	485,222	556,046	670,548	793,579
29-Apr	2,635	24,159	55,846	59,339	63,321	68,450	74,290	82,045	91,472	104,673	121,108	140,054	164,671	197,425	241,720	277,954	320,543	358,830	406,353	465,665	561,556	664,590	835,338
28-Apr	2,927	21,524	52,867	56,415	60,984	66,188	73,097	81,495	93,257	107,898	124,779	146,711	175,892	215,355	247,638	285,582	319,693	362,033	414,876	500,308	592,103	744,229	950,176
27-Apr	3,737	18,597	48,743	52,691	57,187	63,156	70,413	80,575	93,226	107,810	126,760	151,973	186,070	213,962	246,746	276,219	312,801	358,458	432,272	511,585	643,023	820,963	1,027,909
26-Apr	3,165	14,860	42,103	45,695	50,465	56,263	64,384	74,492	86,146	101,288	121,435	148,680	170,967	197,163	220,714	249,945	286,427	345,409	408,783	513,810	655,994	821,354	1,007,434
25-Apr	2,106	11,695	35,963	39,717	44,280	50,671	58,626	67,798	79,715	95,571	117,013	134,553	155,170	173,704	196,709	225,421	271,841	321,718	404,374	516,275	646,416	792,863	943,895
24-Apr	1,906	9,589	32,565	36,306	41,546	48,069	55,589	65,360	78,360	95,941	110,323	127,227	142,424	161,287	184,828	222,888	263,784	331,556	423,306	530,011	650,087	773,921	930,933
23-Apr	1,826	7,683	29,090	33,288	38,514	44,540	52,368	62,785	76,871	88,394	101,938	114,115	129,228	148,090	178,585	211,352	265,653	339,166	424,661	520,869	620,090	745,892	823,604
22-Apr	1,088	5,857	25,377	29,361	33,954	39,922	47,863	58,601	67,386	77,711	86,993	98,515	112,894	136,141	161,120	202,516	258,557	323,733	397,076	472,714	568,618	627,860	702,942
21-Apr	677	4,769	23,907	27,647	32,506	38,972	47,716	54,868	63,275	70,833	80,214	91,923	110,852	131,190	164,896	210,527	263,596	323,315	384,903	462,991	511,228	572,363	683,820
20-Apr	858	4,092	23,722	27,892	33,439	40,942	47,079	54,293	60,778	68,827	78,873	95,115	112,567	141,488	180,641	226,176	277,417	330,262	397,265	438,655	491,111	586,746	688,157
19-Apr	536	3,234	22,043	26,428	32,357	37,208	42,909	48,034	54,396	62,335	75,172	88,964	111,821	142,765	178,752	219,249	261,014	313,968	346,679	388,136	463,718	543,866	638,166
18-Apr	431	2,698	22,048	26,994	31,041	35,797	40,073	45,380	52,004	62,713	74,219	93,288	119,103	149,126	182,911	217,754	261,931	289,221	323,807	386,862	453,726	532,397	623,225
17-Apr	431	2,267	22,682	26,082	30,079	33,671	38,131	43,696	52,695	62,363	78,385	100,077	125,304	153,691	182,968	220,088	243,018	272,079	325,062	381,245	447,347	523,666	604,258
16-Apr	219	1,836	21,124	24,360	27,270	30,881	35,389	42,676	50,506	63,483	81,050	101,481	124,472	148,182	178,245	196,816	220,352	263,261	308,763	362,298	424,107	489,377	547,859
15-Apr	164	1,617	21,454	24,017	27,198	31,168	37,586	44,482	55,911	71,382	89,376	109,625	130,507	156,984	173,340	194,068	231,859	271,933	319,083	373,519	431,004	482,509	531,831
14-Apr	117	1,453	21,581	24,439	28,007	33,774	39,971	50,240	64,143	80,311	98,506	117,271	141,062	155,759	174,385	208,343	244,353	286,721	335,636	387,290	433,572	477,892	533,827
13-Apr	130	1,336	22,471	25,751	31,054	36,752	46,194	58,978	73,844	90,574	107,828	129,703	143,217	160,343	191,567	224,677	263,633	308,610	356,104	398,660	439,411	490,842	550,547
12-Apr	208	1,206	23,246	28,032	33,176	41,699	53,239	66,659	81,761	97,335	117,083	129,281	144,741	172,926	202,815	237,980	278,580	321,454	359,868	396,654	443,080	496,976	562,050
11-Apr	191	998	23,198	27,454	34,508	44,057	55,162	67,659	80,548	96,889	106,984	119,777	143,102	167,835	196,935	230,533	266,012	297,801	328,242	366,662	411,262	465,113	521,510
10-Apr	96	807	22,200	27,903	35,625	44,605	54,711	65,132	78,346	86,509	96,854	115,714	135,714	159,245	186,413	215,102	240,807	265,422	296,489	332,553	376,098	421,702	481,343
09-Apr	128	711	24,584	31,387	39,299	48,202	57,384	69,026	76,218	85,332	101,949	119,570	140,302	164,238	189,514	212,161	233,848	261,219	292,993	331,358	371,537	424,083	490,260
08-Apr	62	583	25,736	32,224	39,525	47,054	56,600	62,497	69,970	83,595	98,044	115,043	134,670	155,396	173,966	191,749	214,192	240,246	271,704	304,650	347,736	402,000	445,155
07-Apr	41	521	28,797	35,321	42,050	50,580	55,850	62,529	74,705	87,617	102,809	120,348	138,870	155,465	171,357	191,414	214,697	242,809	272,251	310,756	359,248	397,815	480,958
06-Apr	35	480	32,542	38,740	46,600	51,455	57,608	68,826	80,722	94,718	110,878	127,942	143,231	157,872	176,350	197,801	223,702	250,826	286,301	330,977	366,509	443,109	520,662
05-Apr	53	445	35,916	43,202	47,703	53,408	63,808	74,836	87,812	102,793	118,613	132,787	146,361	163,491	183,378	207,390	232,537	265,425	306,844	339,784	410,799	482,697	560,141
04-Apr	52	392	38,057	42,022	47,047	56,208	65,923	77,353	90,550	104,486	116,972	128,929	144,019	161,538	182,690	204,842	233,812	270,298	299,315	361,873	425,208	493,428	548,226
03-Apr	52	340	36,447	40,806	48,752	57,178	67,092	78,538	90,625	101,455	111,826	124,915	140,109	158,455	177,669	202,796	234,442	259,610	313,869	368,802	427,973	475,502	513,501
02-Apr	49	288	34,565	41,296	48,433	56,831	66,527	76,765	85,939	94,723	105,810	118,681	134,221	150,496	171,781	198,586	219,905	265,866	312,397	362,518	402,778	434,965	474,359
01-Apr	69	239	34,270	40,193	47,162	55,208	63,704	71,317	78,607	87,808	98,489	111,385	124,891	142,554	164,799	182,491	220,632	259,246	300,840	334,250	360,961	393,652	420,836
31-Mar	29	170	28,589	33,546	39,269	45,313	50,728	55,913	62,457	70,055	79,228	88,834	101,398	117,221	129,805	156,935	184,401	213,986	237,751	256,750	280,004	299,339	315,589
30-Mar	31	141	27,824	32,570	37,583	42,074	46,375	51,803	58,104	65,712	73,680	84,101	97,225	107,662	130,163	152,945	177,483	197,193	212,952	232,238	248,275	261,753	275,114
29-Mar	25	110	25,409	29,320	32,824	36,179	40,414	45,329	51,265	57,481	65,611	75,849	83,992	101,546	119,318	138,462	153,839	166,133	181,179	193,690	204,205	214,628	222,475
28-Mar	29	85	22,656	25,364	27,957	31,229	35,027	39,614	44,417	50,699	58,611	64,903	78,467	92,201	106,993	118,875	128,375	140,002	149,670	157,794	165,849	171,912	176,897
27-Mar	6	56	16,710	18,418	20,574	23,077	26,099	29,263	33,402	38,614	42,759	51,696	60,744	70,490	78,318	84,577	92,236	98,606	103,959	109,265	113,260	116,544	119,928
26-Mar	18	50	16,445	18,370	20,604	23,302	26,128	29,823	34,477	38,178	46,157	54,236	62,937	69,927	75,515	82,354	88,041	92,820	97,558	101,125	104,057	107,078	107,774
25-Mar	21	32	11,757	13,187	14,913	16,722	19,087	22,065	24,434	29,541	34,711	40,280	44,753	48,329	52,707	56,346	59,405	62,437	64,720	66,597	68,530	68,975	71,170
24-Mar	2	11	4,533	5,126	5,748	6,561	7,585	8,399	10,155	11,932	13,846	15,384	16,613	18,118	19,369	20,420	21,463	22,247	22,893	23,557	23,710	24,465	24,818
23-Mar	1	9	4,194	4,703	5,368	6,206	6,872	8,308	9,762	11,329	12,587	13,593	14,824	15,847	16,708	17,560	18,202	18,730	19,274	19,399	20,017	20,306	20,550
22-Mar	4	8	4,180	4,772	5,516	6,108	7,385	8,678	10,070	11,188	12,082	13,177	14,087	14,851	15,609	16,180	16,649	17,133	17,244	17,793	18,050	18,267	18,473
21-Mar	0	4	2,386	2,758	3,054	3,693	4,339	5,035	5,594	6,041	6,588	7,043	7,426	7,805	8,090	8,325	8,566	8,622	8,896	9,025	9,133	9,237	9,510
20-Mar	0	4	2,758	3,054	3,693	4,339	5,035	5,594	6,041	6,588	7,043	7,426	7,805	8,090	8,325	8,566	8,622	8,896	9,025	9,133	9,237	9,510	9,790
19-Mar	2	4	3,054	3,693	4,339	5,035	5,594	6,041	6,588	7,043	7,426	7,805	8,090	8,325	8,566	8,622	8,896	9,025	9,133	9,237	9,510	9,790	10,000
18-Mar	0	2	1,846	2,169	2,517	2,797	3,021	3,294	3,522	3,713	3,902	4,045	4,162	4,283	4,311	4,448	4,512	4,567	4,618	4,755	4,895	5,000	5,000
17-Mar	0	2	2,169	2,517	2,797	3,021	3,294	3,522	3,713	3,902	4,045	4,162	4,283	4,311	4,448	4,512	4,567	4,618	4,755	4,895	5,000	5,000	5,000
16-Mar	1	2	2,517	2,797	3,021	3,294	3,522	3,713	3,902	4,045	4,162	4,283	4,311	4,448	4,512	4,567	4,618	4,755	4,895	5,000	5,000	5,000	5,000
15-Mar	1	1	1,399	1,510	1,647	1,761	1,856	1,951	2,022	2,081	2,142	2,155	2,224	2,256	2,283	2,309	2,377	2,448	2,500	2,500	2,500	2,500	2,500
14-Mar	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
13-Mar	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
12-Mar	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
11-Mar	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
10-Mar	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	NA
09-Mar	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	NA	NA
08-Mar	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	NA	NA	NA
07-Mar	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	NA	NA	NA	NA
06-Mar	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA
05-Mar	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA
04-Mar	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA
03-Mar	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA
02-Mar	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA
01-Mar	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA

Proportion complete

Date	10 Days Early	9 Days Early	8 Days Early	7 Days Early	6 Days Early	5 Days Early	4 Days Early	3 Days Early	2 Days Early	1 Days Early	10yr Average	1 Days Late	2 Days Late	3 Days Late	4 Days Late	5 Days Late	6 Days Late	7 Days Late	8 Days Late	9 Days Late	10 Days Late
15-Jun	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	1.00	0.98	0.97	0.95	0.94	0.92	0.91	0.89	0.88	0.86	0.85
14-Jun	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	1.00	0.98	0.97	0.95	0.94	0.92	0.91	0.89	0.88	0.86	0.85	0.84
13-Jun	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	1.00	0.98	0.97	0.95	0.94	0.92	0.91	0.89	0.88	0.86	0.85	0.84	0.83
12-Jun	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	1.00	0.98	0.97	0.95	0.94	0.92	0.91	0.89	0.88	0.86	0.85	0.84	0.83	0.82
11-Jun	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	1.00	0.98	0.97	0.95	0.94	0.92	0.91	0.89	0.88	0.86	0.85	0.84	0.83	0.82	0.80
10-Jun	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	1.00	0.98	0.97	0.95	0.94	0.92	0.91	0.89	0.88	0.86	0.85	0.84	0.83	0.82	0.80	0.79
09-Jun	NA	NA	NA	NA	1.00	0.98	0.97	0.95	0.94	0.92	0.91	0.89	0.88	0.86	0.85	0.84	0.83	0.82	0.80	0.79	0.78
08-Jun	NA	NA	NA	1.00	0.98	0.97	0.95	0.94	0.92	0.91	0.89	0.88	0.86	0.85	0.84	0.83	0.82	0.80	0.79	0.78	0.77
07-Jun	NA	NA	1.00	0.98	0.97	0.95	0.94	0.92	0.91	0.89	0.88	0.86	0.85	0.84	0.83	0.82	0.80	0.79	0.78	0.77	0.76
06-Jun	NA	1.00	0.98	0.97	0.95	0.94	0.92	0.91	0.89	0.88	0.86	0.85	0.84	0.83	0.82	0.80	0.79	0.78	0.77	0.76	0.75
05-Jun	1.00	0.98	0.97	0.95	0.94	0.92	0.91	0.89	0.88	0.86	0.85	0.84	0.83	0.82	0.80	0.79	0.78	0.77	0.76	0.75	0.73
04-Jun	0.98	0.97	0.95	0.94	0.92	0.91	0.89	0.88	0.86	0.85	0.84	0.83	0.82	0.80	0.79	0.78	0.77	0.76	0.75	0.73	0.72
03-Jun	0.97	0.95	0.94	0.92	0.91	0.89	0.88	0.86	0.85	0.84	0.83	0.82	0.80	0.79	0.78	0.77	0.76	0.75	0.73	0.72	0.71
02-Jun	0.95	0.94	0.92	0.91	0.89	0.88	0.86	0.85	0.84	0.83	0.82	0.80	0.79	0.78	0.77	0.76	0.75	0.73	0.72	0.71	0.70
01-Jun	0.94	0.92	0.91	0.89	0.88	0.86	0.85	0.84	0.83	0.82	0.80	0.79	0.78	0.77	0.76	0.75	0.73	0.72	0.71	0.70	0.68
31-May	0.92	0.91	0.89	0.88	0.86	0.85	0.84	0.83	0.82	0.80	0.79	0.78	0.77	0.76	0.75	0.73	0.72	0.71	0.70	0.68	0.66
30-May	0.91	0.89	0.88	0.86	0.85	0.84	0.83	0.82	0.80	0.79	0.78	0.77	0.76	0.75	0.73	0.72	0.71	0.70	0.68	0.66	0.65
29-May	0.89	0.88	0.86	0.85	0.84	0.83	0.82	0.80	0.79	0.78	0.77	0.76	0.75	0.73	0.72	0.71	0.70	0.68	0.66	0.65	0.63
28-May	0.88	0.86	0.85	0.84	0.83	0.82	0.80	0.79	0.78	0.77	0.76	0.75	0.73	0.72	0.71	0.70	0.68	0.66	0.65	0.63	0.62
27-May	0.86	0.85	0.84	0.83	0.82	0.80	0.79	0.78	0.77	0.76	0.75	0.73	0.72	0.71	0.70	0.68	0.66	0.65	0.63	0.62	0.60
26-May	0.85	0.84	0.83	0.82	0.80	0.79	0.78	0.77	0.76	0.75	0.73	0.72	0.71	0.70	0.68	0.66	0.65	0.63	0.62	0.60	0.59
25-May	0.84	0.83	0.82	0.80	0.79	0.78	0.77	0.76	0.75	0.73	0.72	0.71	0.70	0.68	0.66	0.65	0.63	0.62	0.60	0.59	0.57
24-May	0.83	0.82	0.80	0.79	0.78	0.77	0.76	0.75	0.73	0.72	0.71	0.70	0.68	0.66	0.65	0.63	0.62	0.60	0.59	0.57	0.55
23-May	0.82	0.80	0.79	0.78	0.77	0.76	0.75	0.73	0.72	0.71	0.70	0.68	0.66	0.65	0.63	0.62	0.60	0.59	0.57	0.55	0.53
22-May	0.80	0.79	0.78	0.77	0.76	0.75	0.73	0.72	0.71	0.70	0.68	0.66	0.65	0.63	0.62	0.60	0.59	0.57	0.55	0.53	0.51
21-May	0.79	0.78	0.77	0.76	0.75	0.73	0.72	0.71	0.70	0.68	0.66	0.65	0.63	0.62	0.60	0.59	0.57	0.55	0.53	0.51	0.49
20-May	0.78	0.77	0.76	0.75	0.73	0.72	0.71	0.70	0.68	0.66	0.65	0.63	0.62	0.60	0.59	0.57	0.55	0.53	0.51	0.49	0.46
19-May	0.77	0.76	0.75	0.73	0.72	0.71	0.70	0.68	0.66	0.65	0.63	0.62	0.60	0.59	0.57	0.55	0.53	0.51	0.49	0.46	0.43
18-May	0.76	0.75	0.73	0.72	0.71	0.70	0.68	0.66	0.65	0.63	0.62	0.60	0.59	0.57	0.55	0.53	0.51	0.49	0.46	0.43	0.41
17-May	0.75	0.73	0.72	0.71	0.70	0.68	0.66	0.65	0.63	0.62	0.60	0.59	0.57	0.55	0.53	0.51	0.49	0.46	0.43	0.41	0.38
16-May	0.73	0.72	0.71	0.70	0.68	0.66	0.65	0.63	0.62	0.60	0.59	0.57	0.55	0.53	0.51	0.49	0.46	0.43	0.41	0.38	0.35
15-May	0.72	0.71	0.70	0.68	0.66	0.65	0.63	0.62	0.60	0.59	0.57	0.55	0.53	0.51	0.49	0.46	0.43	0.41	0.38	0.35	0.33
14-May	0.71	0.70	0.68	0.66	0.65	0.63	0.62	0.60	0.59	0.57	0.55	0.53	0.51	0.49	0.46	0.43	0.41	0.38	0.35	0.33	0.29
13-May	0.70	0.68	0.66	0.65	0.63	0.62	0.60	0.59	0.57	0.55	0.53	0.51	0.49	0.46	0.43	0.41	0.38	0.35	0.33	0.29	0.26
12-May	0.68	0.66	0.65	0.63	0.62	0.60	0.59	0.57	0.55	0.53	0.51	0.49	0.46	0.43	0.41	0.38	0.35	0.33	0.29	0.26	0.23
11-May	0.66	0.65	0.63	0.62	0.60	0.59	0.57	0.55	0.53	0.51	0.49	0.46	0.43	0.41	0.38	0.35	0.33	0.29	0.26	0.23	0.20
10-May	0.65	0.63	0.62	0.60	0.59	0.57	0.55	0.53	0.51	0.49	0.46	0.43	0.41	0.38	0.35	0.33	0.29	0.26	0.23	0.20	0.17
09-May	0.63	0.62	0.60	0.59	0.57	0.55	0.53	0.51	0.49	0.46	0.43	0.41	0.38	0.35	0.33	0.29	0.26	0.23	0.20	0.17	0.15
08-May	0.62	0.60	0.59	0.57	0.55	0.53	0.51	0.49	0.46	0.43	0.41	0.38	0.35	0.33	0.29	0.26	0.23	0.20	0.17	0.15	0.12
07-May	0.60	0.59	0.57	0.55	0.53	0.51	0.49	0.46	0.43	0.41	0.38	0.35	0.33	0.29	0.26	0.23	0.20	0.17	0.15	0.12	0.10
06-May	0.59	0.57	0.55	0.53	0.51	0.49	0.46	0.43	0.41	0.38	0.35	0.33	0.29	0.26	0.23	0.20	0.17	0.15	0.12	0.10	0.09
05-May	0.57	0.55	0.53	0.51	0.49	0.46	0.43	0.41	0.38	0.35	0.33	0.29	0.26	0.23	0.20	0.17	0.15	0.12	0.10	0.09	0.08
04-May	0.55	0.53	0.51	0.49	0.46	0.43	0.41	0.38	0.35	0.33	0.29	0.26	0.23	0.20	0.17	0.15	0.12	0.10	0.09	0.08	0.07
03-May	0.53	0.51	0.49	0.46	0.43	0.41	0.38	0.35	0.33	0.29	0.26	0.23	0.20	0.17	0.15	0.12	0.10	0.09	0.08	0.07	0.06
02-May	0.51	0.49	0.46	0.43	0.41	0.38	0.35	0.33	0.29	0.26	0.23	0.20	0.17	0.15	0.12	0.10	0.09	0.08	0.07	0.06	0.05
01-May	0.49	0.46	0.43	0.41	0.38	0.35	0.33	0.29	0.26	0.23	0.20	0.17	0.15	0.12	0.10	0.09	0.08	0.07	0.06	0.05	0.04
30-Apr	0.46	0.43	0.41	0.38	0.35	0.33	0.29	0.26	0.23	0.20	0.17	0.15	0.12	0.10	0.09	0.08	0.07	0.06	0.05	0.04	0.04
29-Apr	0.43	0.41	0.38	0.35	0.33	0.29	0.26	0.23	0.20	0.17	0.15	0.12	0.10	0.09	0.08	0.07	0.06	0.05	0.04	0.04	0.03
28-Apr	0.41	0.38	0.35	0.33	0.29	0.26	0.23	0.20	0.17	0.15	0.12	0.10	0.09	0.08	0.07	0.06	0.05	0.04	0.04	0.03	0.02
27-Apr	0.38	0.35	0.33	0.29	0.26	0.23	0.20	0.17	0.15	0.12	0.10	0.09	0.08	0.07	0.06	0.05	0.04	0.04	0.03	0.02	0.02
26-Apr	0.35	0.33	0.29	0.26	0.23	0.20	0.17	0.15	0.12	0.10	0.09	0.08	0.07	0.06	0.05	0.04	0.04	0.03	0.02	0.02	0.01
25-Apr	0.33	0.29	0.26	0.23	0.20	0.17	0.15	0.12	0.10	0.09	0.08	0.07	0.06	0.05	0.04	0.04	0.03	0.02	0.02	0.01	0.01
24-Apr	0.29	0.26	0.23	0.20	0.17	0.15	0.12	0.10	0.09	0.08	0.07	0.06	0.05	0.04	0.04	0.03	0.02	0.02	0.01	0.01	0.01
23-Apr	0.26	0.23	0.20	0.17	0.15	0.12	0.10	0.09	0.08	0.07	0.06	0.05	0.04	0.04	0.03	0.02	0.02	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01
22-Apr	0.23	0.20	0.17	0.15	0.12	0.10	0.09	0.08	0.07	0.06	0.05	0.04	0.04	0.03	0.02	0.02	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01
21-Apr	0.20	0.17	0.15	0.12	0.10	0.09	0.08	0.07	0.06	0.05	0.04	0.04	0.03	0.02	0.02	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01
20-Apr	0.17	0.15	0.12	0.10	0.09	0.08	0.07	0.06	0.05	0.04	0.04	0.03	0.02	0.02	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01
19-Apr	0.15	0.12	0.10	0.09	0.08	0.07	0.06	0.05	0.04	0.04	0.03	0.02	0.02	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01
18-Apr	0.12	0.10	0.09	0.08	0.07	0.06	0.05	0.04	0.04	0.03	0.02	0.02	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00
17-Apr	0.10	0.09	0.08	0.07	0.06	0.05	0.04	0.04	0.03	0.02	0.02	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00
16-Apr	0.09	0.08	0.07	0.06	0.05	0.04	0.04	0.03	0.02	0.02	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00
15-Apr	0.08	0.07	0.06	0.05	0.04	0.04	0.03	0.02	0.02	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
14-Apr	0.07	0.06	0.05	0.04	0.04	0.03	0.02	0.02	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
13-Apr	0.06	0.05	0.04	0.04	0.03	0.02	0.02	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
12-Apr	0.05	0.04	0.04	0.03	0.02	0.02	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
11-Apr	0.04	0.04	0.03	0.02	0.02	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
10-Apr	0.04	0.03	0.02	0.02	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
09-Apr	0.03	0.02	0.02	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
08-Apr	0.02	0.02	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
07-Apr	0.02	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
06-Apr	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
05-Apr	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
04-Apr	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
03-Apr	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
02-Apr	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
01-Apr	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
31-Mar	0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
30-Mar	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
29-Mar	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
28-Mar	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
27-Mar	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
26-Mar	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
25-Mar	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
24-Mar	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
23-Mar	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
22-Mar	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
21-Mar	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
20-Mar	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
19-Mar	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
18-Mar	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
17-Mar	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
16-Mar	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
15-Mar	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
14-Mar	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
13-Mar	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
12-Mar	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
11-Mar	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
10-Mar	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	NA
09-Mar	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	NA	NA
08-Mar	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	NA	NA	NA
07-Mar	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	NA	NA	NA	NA
06-Mar	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA
05-Mar	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA
04-Mar	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA
03-Mar	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA
02-Mar	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA
01-Mar	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA

5-year average

Prediction

Date	Daily counts	Cumulative count	10 Days Early	9 Days Early	8 Days Early	7 Days Early	6 Days Early	5 Days Early	4 Days Early	3 Days Early	2 Days Early	1 Days Early	5yr Average	1 Days Late	2 Days Late	3 Days Late	4 Days Late	5 Days Late	6 Days Late	7 Days Late	8 Days Late	9 Days Late	10 Days Late
15-Jun	1,432	146,061	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	146,134	148,667	151,280	153,893	156,481	158,734	161,387	164,048	166,630	169,634	172,242
14-Jun	1,670	144,629	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	144,701	147,209	149,797	152,385	154,947	157,178	159,805	162,440	164,996	167,971	170,554	173,438
13-Jun	1,533	142,959	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	143,031	145,509	148,068	150,625	153,158	155,363	157,959	160,564	163,091	166,032	168,584	171,436	174,117
12-Jun	1,894	141,426	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	141,497	143,949	146,480	149,010	151,516	153,697	156,266	158,842	161,342	164,251	166,776	169,597	172,250	174,647
11-Jun	1,956	139,532	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	139,602	142,021	144,518	147,014	149,486	151,638	154,173	156,715	159,181	162,052	164,543	167,326	169,943	172,308	174,766
10-Jun	2,290	137,576	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	137,645	140,030	142,492	144,953	147,391	149,513	152,012	154,518	156,950	159,780	162,236	164,980	167,560	169,892	172,316	174,715
09-Jun	2,215	135,286	NA	NA	NA	NA	135,354	137,699	140,120	142,541	144,938	147,024	149,481	151,946	154,338	157,120	159,536	162,234	164,771	167,064	169,448	171,807	174,061
08-Jun	1,838	133,071	NA	NA	NA	133,138	135,445	137,826	140,207	142,565	144,617	147,034	149,458	151,811	154,548	156,924	159,578	162,074	164,329	166,674	168,994	171,211	173,668
07-Jun	2,010	131,233	NA	NA	131,299	133,574	135,923	138,270	140,595	142,619	145,003	147,394	149,714	152,413	154,756	157,374	159,835	162,059	164,371	166,660	168,847	171,270	173,693
06-Jun	2,054	129,223	NA	129,288	131,528	133,841	136,152	138,442	140,435	142,782	145,136	147,421	150,079	152,386	154,963	157,387	159,577	161,854	164,108	166,260	168,647	171,033	173,239
05-Jun	1,457	127,169	127,233	129,438	131,713	133,988	136,241	138,203	140,513	142,829	145,077	147,693	149,964	152,500	154,885	157,041	159,281	161,499	163,618	165,966	168,314	170,486	173,065
04-Jun	1,367	125,712	127,955	130,204	132,453	134,681	136,619	138,903	141,193	143,415	146,001	148,246	150,753	153,111	155,241	157,456	159,649	161,743	164,064	166,386	168,532	171,082	173,586
03-Jun	1,172	124,345	128,788	131,013	133,216	135,134	137,392	139,658	141,856	144,414	146,634	149,114	151,446	153,553	155,744	157,913	159,984	162,280	164,577	166,700	169,222	171,698	174,043
02-Jun	1,131	123,173	129,778	131,960	133,860	136,097	138,341	140,519	143,052	145,252	147,708	150,018	152,106	154,276	156,424	158,476	160,751	163,025	165,129	167,627	170,080	172,402	175,664
01-Jun	1,413	122,042	130,749	132,631	134,848	137,071	139,228	141,739	143,918	146,352	148,641	150,709	152,860	154,988	157,021	159,275	161,528	163,612	166,088	168,518	170,819	174,051	176,677
31-May	1,523	120,629	131,095	133,286	135,484	137,616	140,098	142,252	144,658	146,920	148,964	151,090	153,194	155,203	157,431	159,658	161,718	164,165	166,567	168,842	172,036	174,632	177,038
30-May	1,076	119,106	131,604	133,774	135,879	138,329	140,456	142,831	145,065	147,084	149,182	151,259	153,244	155,443	157,643	159,676	162,092	164,464	166,710	169,864	172,427	174,803	177,591
29-May	1,113	118,030	132,565	134,651	137,079	139,187	141,541	143,754	145,755	147,834	149,893	151,859	154,039	156,218	158,234	160,628	162,978	165,204	168,330	170,869	173,224	175,987	178,789
28-May	1,166	116,917	133,382	135,787	137,874	140,206	142,399	144,381	146,440	148,479	150,427	152,586	154,745	156,742	159,113	161,442	163,646	166,742	169,258	171,590	174,328	177,103	180,288
27-May	1,216	115,751	134,433	136,499	138,808	140,979	142,941	144,980	146,999	148,927	151,064	153,202	155,178	157,526	159,832	162,014	165,079	167,570	169,879	172,589	175,337	178,490	182,444
26-May	1,678	114,535	135,065	137,350	139,498	141,439	143,457	145,454	147,363	149,477	151,593	153,548	155,871	158,152	160,312	163,345	165,810	168,094	170,776	173,495	176,615	180,527	185,647
25-May	1,332	112,857	135,337	137,454	139,367	141,355	143,323	145,204	147,288	149,372	151,299	153,588	155,835	157,963	160,952	163,380	165,632	168,274	170,953	174,027	177,882	182,927	189,909
24-May	1,292	111,525	135,832	137,722	139,687	141,632	143,490	145,549	147,609	149,513	151,775	153,996	156,099	159,053	161,452	163,677	166,288	168,935	171,973	175,783	180,768	187,668	195,193
23-May	1,125	110,233	136,126	138,069	139,991	141,828	143,863	145,899	147,781	150,017	152,212	154,291	157,210	159,582	161,781	164,361	166,978	169,981	173,747	178,674	185,494	192,931	201,115
22-May	1,261	109,108	136,659	138,562	140,380	142,395	144,410	146,273	148,486	150,659	152,716	155,605	157,953	160,130	162,684	165,274	168,246	171,973	176,850	183,601	190,962	199,063	208,881
21-May	1,389	107,847	136,961	138,758	140,749	142,741	144,582	146,770	148,917	150,951	153,807	156,128	158,279	160,804	163,364	166,302	169,986	174,806	181,479	188,755	196,762	206,467	219,184
20-May	1,629	106,458	136,971	138,936	140,902	142,720	144,879	147,000	149,007	151,826	154,117	156,240	158,733	161,260	164,160	167,796	172,555	179,141	186,324	194,228	203,808	216,361	233,672
19-May	2,804	104,829	136,810	138,746	140,536	142,662	144,750	146,727	149,503	151,758	153,850	156,304	158,792	161,648	165,229	169,915	176,400	183,473	191,256	200,689	213,050	230,096	249,325
18-May	2,169	102,025	135,035	136,777	138,846	140,878	142,802	145,504	147,699	149,734	152,123	154,545	157,324	160,809	165,370	171,682	178,566	186,140	195,321	207,351	223,941	242,656	263,215
17-May	2,522	99,856	133,869	135,895	137,883	139,766	142,411	144,559	146,551	148,889	151,259	153,980	157,391	161,854	168,032	174,770	182,183	191,169	202,943	219,180	237,497	257,619	274,443
16-May	2,234	97,334	132,462	134,401	136,236	138,814	140,908	142,850	145,129	147,439	150,091	153,415	157,766	163,788	170,355	177,581	186,340	197,817	213,645	231,499	251,113	267,511	281,650
15-May	2,271	95,100	131,316	133,109	135,628	137,674	139,571	141,798	144,055	146,646	149,894	154,145	160,029	166,445	173,506	182,063	193,277	208,741	226,186	245,349	261,371	275,185	296,115
14-May	1,562	92,829	129,931	132,389	134,386	136,238	138,411	140,615	143,144	146,315	150,464	156,207	162,471	169,362	177,716	188,662	203,756	220,784	239,490	255,130	268,614	289,044	317,166
13-May	1,367	91,267	130,161	132,125	133,946	136,082	138,249	140,735	143,853	147,932	153,579	159,737	166,512	174,725	185,487	200,328	217,069	235,460	250,837	264,094	284,180	311,829	346,645
12-May	2,030	89,900	130,146	131,940	134,044	136,178	138,627	141,698	145,716	151,278	157,344	164,018	172,108	182,709	197,327	213,818	231,934	247,080	260,139	279,924	307,158	341,453	399,456
11-May	2,958	87,870	128,960	131,017	133,103	135,497	138,499	142,426	147,863	153,791	160,315	168,222	178,583	192,872	208,990	226,696	241,501	254,264	273,603	300,223	333,743	390,436	444,368
10-May	4,275	84,912	126,607	128,622	130,936	133,836	137,632	142,885	148,614	154,918	162,559	172,571	186,379	201,955	219,065	233,371	245,705	264,393	290,116	322,508	377,292	429,409	501,875
09-May	4,579	80,637	122,147	124,344	127,098	130,702	135,691	141,132	147,119	154,375	163,883	176,995	191,787	208,036	221,622	233,335	251,081	275,510	306,271	358,297	407,790	476,607	567,543
08-May	5,804	76,058	117,283	119,881	123,280	127,986	133,118	138,764	145,609	154,577	166,945	180,896	196,223	209,037	220,085	236,824	259,865	288,879	337,951	384,633	449,543	535,315	658,256
07-May	6,690	70,254	110,733	113,873	118,219	122,960	128,175	134,497	142,781	154,205	167,092	181,249	193,085	203,290	218,752	240,035	266,835	312,162	355,282	415,238	494,465	608,025	768,517
06-May	5,287	63,564	103,029	106,962	111,251	115,970	121,690	129,185	139,521	151,181	163,989	174,698	183,932	197,921	217,177	241,425	282,436	321,450	375,697	447,379	550,125	695,334	828,129
05-May	5,481	58,277	98,065	101,997	106,324	111,568	118,440	127,916	138,606	150,349	160,168	168,633	181,459	199,113	221,344	258,944	294,713	344,448	410,168	504,368	637,499	759,248	969,463
04-May	6,975	52,796	92,404	96,324	101,075	107,300	115,885	125,570	136,209	145,104	152,773	164,392	180,386	200,527	234,590	266,995	312,052	371,592	456,932	577,542	687,840	878,284	1,050,852
03-May	7,706	45,821	83,598	87,722	93,125	100,575	108,981	118,214	125,934	132,590	142,674	156,555	174,035	203,598	231,722	270,826	322,500	396,565	501,241	596,968	762,252	912,022	1,136,888
02-May	5,085	38,115	72,969	77,463	83,661	90,653	98,333	104,755	110,291	118,680	130,226	144,766	169,358	192,751	225,280	268,263	329,872	416,944	496,572	634,059	758,641	945,690	1,211,029
01-May	4,182	33,030	67,129	72,500	78,559	85,214	90,779	95,577	102,846	112,853	125,453	146,763	167,036	195,225	232,473	285,863	361,319	430,324	549,468	657,429	819,524	1,049,463	1,341,907
30-Apr	4,689	28,848	63,320	68,612	74,425	79,285	83,476	89,825	98,564	109,569	128,181	145,887	170,507	203,039	249,670	315,572	375,839	479,899	574,191	715,762	916,588	1,172,005	1,442,102
29-Apr	2,635	24,159	57,460	62,328	66,398	69,908	75,224	82,543	91,759	107,346	122,175	142,792	170,037	209,088	264,278	314,750	401,895	480,861	599,421	767,605	981,506	1,207,700	1,445,334
28-Apr	2,927	21,524	55,530	59,156	62,283	67,020	73,540	81,751	95,638	108,849	127,218	151,491	186,283	235,454	280,420	358,061	428,414	534,043	683,883	874,454	1,075,977	1,287,692	1,550,786
27-Apr	3,737	18,597	51,112	53,813	57,906	63,540	70,634	82,633	94,047	109,918	130,890	160,951	203,435	242,287	309,369	370,155	461,420	590,883	755,539	929,658	1,112,582	1,339,898	1,570,125
26-Apr	3,165	14,860	43,000	46,270	50,772	56,440	66,028	75,149	87,830	104,588	128,608	162,555	193,600	247,202	295,774	368,699	472,147	603,716	742,846	889,013	1,070,650	1,254,614	1,496,047
25-Apr	2,106	11,695	36,415	39,958	44,419	51,965	59,143	69,124	82,312	101,216	127,933	152,366	194,551	232,777	290,171	371,586	475,132	584,629	699,664	842,615	987,396	1,177,407	1,433,788
24-Apr	1,906	9,589	32,762	36,420	42,607	48,493	56,676	67,490	82,990	104,895	124,928	159,517	190,860	237,917	304,672	389,571	479,351	573,670	690,879	809,589	965,383	1,175,596	1,384,000
23-Apr	1,826	7,683	29,181	34,138	38,854	45,411	54,075	66,494	84,045	100,096	127,810	152,923	190,627	244,112	312,137	384,071	459,642	553,554	648,667	773,495	941,924	1,108,903	1,254,130
22-Apr	1,088	5,857	26,025	29,619	34,618	41,223	50,690	64,070	76,307	97,434	116,578	145,321	186,095	237,952	292,789	350,400	421,992	494,500	589,660	718,059	845,353	956,064	1,077,898
21-Apr	677	4,769	24,117	28,187	33,565	41,274	52,169	62,132	79,334	94,922	118,326	151,526	193,750	238,401	285,310	343,602	402,642	480,124	584,672	688,319	778,465	877,667	999,322
20-Apr	858	4,092	24,186	28,801	35,415	44,763	53,312	68,072	81,447	101,529	130,015	166,245	204,558	244,808	294,825	345,483	411,967	501,673	590,607	667,955	753,075	857,460	941,754
19-Apr	536	3,234	22,762	27,989	35,377	42,133	53,799	64,370	80,240	102,754	131,387	161,667	193,477	233,007	273,043	325,587	396,483	466,770	527,900	595,172	677,670	744,289	841,208
18-Apr	431	2,698	23,350	29,514	35,150	44,882	53,701	66,941	85,724	109,611	134,872	161,410	194,389	227,789	271,624	330,771	389,408	440,407	496,529	565,354	620,931	701,787	777,607
17-Apr	431	2,267	24,799	29,535	37,713	45,122	56,248	72,029	92,101	113,327	135,625	163,335	191,400	228,233	277,931	327,201	370,052	417,209	475,040	521,739	589,678	653,386	721,631
16-Apr	219	1,836	23,920	30,543	36,544	45,554	58,335	74,591	91,781	109,840	132,282	155,011	184,841	225,091	264,994	299,698	337,890	384,725	422,546	477,569	529,165	584,435	633,786
15-Apr	164	1,617	26,899	32,185	40,120	51,377	65,694	80,833	96,738	116,503	136,522	162,793	198,242	233,385	263,950	297,586	338,835	372,145	420,604	466,045	514,723	558,187	614,583
14-Apr	117	1,453	28,921	36,051	46,166	59,031	72,635	86,927	104,687	122,675	146,282	178,135	209,714	237,180	267,404	304,470	334,401	377,945	418,778	462,519	501,575	552,251	621,281
13-Apr	130	1,336	33,148	42,449	54,278	66,786	79,927	96,258	112,797	134,503	163,791	192,828	218,081	245,872	279,953	307,474	347,512	385,057	425,275	461,186	507,782	571,253	649,099
12-Apr	208	1,206	38,318	48,996	60,288	72,150	86,891	101,821	121,415	147,854	174,064	196,861	221,947	252,712	277,555	313,697	347,589	383,894	416,310	458,372	515,667	585,938	641,900
11-Apr	191	998	40,546	49,890	59,706	71,905	84,260	100,475	122,353	144,043	162,908	183,668	209,126	229,685	259,593	287,640	317,683	344,509	379,316	426,730	484,881	531,191	572,494
10-Apr	96	807	40,342	48,279	58,144	68,134	81,246	98,937	116,476	131,730	148,517	169,103	185,727	209,912	232,590	256,884	278,576	306,721	345,061	392,083	429,530	462,928	521,935
09-Apr	128	711	42,536	51,227	60,029	71,581	87,167	102,620	116,060	130,849	148,987	163,633	184,941	204,922	226,325	245,437	270,234	304,013	345,441	378,434	407,859	459,846	513,336
08-Apr	62	583	42,005	49,222	58,694	71,475	84,146	95,166	107,293	122,165	134,175	151,646	168,030	185,580	201,251	221,584	249,282	283,252	310,305	334,433	377,061	420,921	464,900
07-Apr	41	521	43,987	52,452	63,874	75,197	85,045	95,883	109,173	119,906	135,519	150,161	165,845	179,849	198,020	222,772	253,129	277,305	298,867	336,962	376,157	415,460	509,514
06-Apr	35	480	48,325	58,847	69,279	78,353	88,337	100,582	110,470	124,855	138,344	152,793	165,696	182,437	205,241	233,209	255,483	275,348	310,444	346,556	382,765	469,418	551,433
05-Apr	53	445	54,556	64,228	72,639	81,896	93,248	102,415	115,751	128,256	141,652	153,614	169,134	190,275	216,204	236,854	255,270	287,808	321,286	354,855	435,190	511,224	631,420
04-Apr	52	392	56,578	63,988	72,142	82,142	90,217	101,965	112,981	124,781	135,318	148,990	167,613	190,454	208,644	224,867	253,530	283,021	312,592	383,358	450,337	556,217	636,377
03-Apr	52	340	55,500	62,572	71,245	78,249	88,439	97,993	108,229	117,368	129,226	145,379	165,190	180,967	195,038	219,898	245,477	271,125	332,505	390,598	482,433	551,960	605,278
02-Apr	49	288	53,002	60,349	66,282	74,913	83,006	91,676	99,417	109,462	123,144	139,926	153,290	165,209	186,267	207,933	229,659	281,651	330,860	408,650	467,542	512,706	579,061
01-Apr	69	239	50,081	55,005	62,167	68,884	76,078	82,503	90,838	102,193	116,119	127,209	137,100	154,575	172,556	190,585	233,731	274,568	339,122	387,995	425,475	480,540	537,648
31-Mar	29	170	39,125	44,219	48,997	54,114	58,684	64,613	72,689	82,595	90,483	97,519	109,949	122,739	135,563	166,252	195,299	241,217	275,980	302,639	341,807	382,427	416,014
30-Mar	31	141	36,676	40,638	44,883	48,673	53,591	60,289	68,505	75,048	80,883	91,193	101,801	112,437	137,892	161,983	200,068	228,901	251,013	283,499	317,190	345,047	352,500
29-Mar	25	110	31,704	35,015	37,972	41,808	47,034	53,444	58,548	63,101	71,144	79,419	87,717	107,575	126,370	156,081	178,575	195,825	221,169	247,453	269,186	275,000	275,000
28-Mar	29	85	27,057	29,342	32,306	36,345	41,297	45,242	48,760	54,975	61,369	67,781	83,126	97,650	120,608	137,990	151,320	170,904	191,214	208,007	212,500	212,500	212,500
27-Mar	6	56	19,331	21,284	23,945	27,208	29,806	32,124	36,219	40,432	44,656	54,765	64,334	79,460	90,911	99,693	112,595	125,976	137,040	140,000	140,000	140,000	140,000
26-Mar	18	50	19,004	21,379	24,293	26,613	28,682	32,338	36,100	39,871	48,898	57,441	70,946	81,171	89,012	100,531	112,479	122,357	125,000	125,000	125,000	125,000	125,000
25-Mar	21	32	13,683	15,547	17,032	18,357	20,696	23,104	25,518	31,295	36,762	45,406	51,949	56,967	64,340	71,986	78,309	80,000	80,000	80,000	80,000	80,000	80,000
24-Mar	2	11	5,344	5,855	6,310	7,114	7,942	8,772	10,758	12,637	15,608	17,858	19,583	22,117	24,745	26,919	27,500	27,500	27,500	27,500	27,500	27,500	27,500
23-Mar	1	9	4,790	5,163	5,821	6,498	7,177	8,802	10,339	12,770	14,611	16,022	18,096	20,246	22,024	22,500	22,500	22,500	22,500	22,500	22,500	22,500	22,500
22-Mar	4	8	4,589	5,174	5,776	6,379	7,824	9,191	11,351	12,987	14,242	16,085	17,997	19,577	20,000	20,000	20,000	20,000	20,000	20,000	20,000	20,000	20,000
21-Mar	0	4	2,587	2,888	3,190	3,912	4,595	5,676	6,494	7,121	8,043	8,998	9,789	10,000	10,000	10,000	10,000	10,000	10,000	10,000	10,000	10,000	10,000
20-Mar	0	4	2,888	3,190	3,912	4,595	5,676	6,494	7,121	8,043	8,998	9,789	10,000	10,000	10,000	10,000	10,000	10,000	10,000	10,000	10,000	10,000	10,000
19-Mar	2	4	3,190	3,912	4,595	5,676	6,494	7,121	8,043	8,998	9,789	10,000	10,000	10,000	10,000	10,000	10,000	10,000	10,000	10,000	10,000	10,000	10,000
18-Mar	0	2	1,956	2,298	2,838	3,247	3,560	4,021	4,499	4,894	5,000	5,000	5,000	5,000	5,000	5,000	5,000	5,000	5,000	5,000	5,000	5,000	5,000
17-Mar	0	2	2,298	2,838	3,247	3,560	4,021	4,499	4,894	5,000	5,000	5,000	5,000	5,000	5,000	5,000	5,000	5,000	5,000	5,000	5,000	5,000	5,000
16-Mar	1	2	2,838	3,247	3,560	4,021	4,499	4,894	5,000	5,000	5,000	5,000	5,000	5,000	5,000	5,000	5,000	5,000	5,000	5,000	5,000	5,000	5,000
15-Mar	1	1	1,623	1,780	2,011	2,250	2,447	2,500	2,500	2,500	2,500	2,500	2,500	2,500	2,500	2,500	2,500	2,500	2,500	2,500	2,500	2,500	2,500
14-Mar	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
13-Mar	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
12-Mar	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
11-Mar	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
10-Mar	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	NA
09-Mar	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	NA	NA
08-Mar	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	NA	NA	NA
07-Mar	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	NA	NA	NA	NA
06-Mar	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA
05-Mar	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA
04-Mar	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA
03-Mar	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA
02-Mar	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA
01-Mar	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA

Proportion complete

Date	10 Days Early	9 Days Early	8 Days Early	7 Days Early	6 Days Early	5 Days Early	4 Days Early	3 Days Early	2 Days Early	1 Days Early	5yr Average	1 Days Late	2 Days Late	3 Days Late	4 Days Late	5 Days Late	6 Days Late	7 Days Late	8 Days Late	9 Days Late	10 Days Late
15-Jun	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	1.00	0.98	0.97	0.95	0.93	0.92	0.91	0.89	0.88	0.86	0.85
14-Jun	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	1.00	0.98	0.97	0.95	0.93	0.92	0.91	0.89	0.88	0.86	0.85	0.83
13-Jun	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	1.00	0.98	0.97	0.95	0.93	0.92	0.91	0.89	0.88	0.86	0.85	0.83	0.82
12-Jun	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	1.00	0.98	0.97	0.95	0.93	0.92	0.91	0.89	0.88	0.86	0.85	0.83	0.82	0.81
11-Jun	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	1.00	0.98	0.97	0.95	0.93	0.92	0.91	0.89	0.88	0.86	0.85	0.83	0.82	0.81	0.80
10-Jun	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	1.00	0.98	0.97	0.95	0.93	0.92	0.91	0.89	0.88	0.86	0.85	0.83	0.82	0.81	0.80	0.79
09-Jun	NA	NA	NA	NA	1.00	0.98	0.97	0.95	0.93	0.92	0.91	0.89	0.88	0.86	0.85	0.83	0.82	0.81	0.80	0.79	0.78
08-Jun	NA	NA	NA	1.00	0.98	0.97	0.95	0.93	0.92	0.91	0.89	0.88	0.86	0.85	0.83	0.82	0.81	0.80	0.79	0.78	0.77
07-Jun	NA	NA	1.00	0.98	0.97	0.95	0.93	0.92	0.91	0.89	0.88	0.86	0.85	0.83	0.82	0.81	0.80	0.79	0.78	0.77	0.76
06-Jun	NA	1.00	0.98	0.97	0.95	0.93	0.92	0.91	0.89	0.88	0.86	0.85	0.83	0.82	0.81	0.80	0.79	0.78	0.77	0.76	0.75
05-Jun	1.00	0.98	0.97	0.95	0.93	0.92	0.91	0.89	0.88	0.86	0.85	0.83	0.82	0.81	0.80	0.79	0.78	0.77	0.76	0.75	0.73
04-Jun	0.98	0.97	0.95	0.93	0.92	0.91	0.89	0.88	0.86	0.85	0.83	0.82	0.81	0.80	0.79	0.78	0.77	0.76	0.75	0.73	0.72
03-Jun	0.97	0.95	0.93	0.92	0.91	0.89	0.88	0.86	0.85	0.83	0.82	0.81	0.80	0.79	0.78	0.77	0.76	0.75	0.73	0.72	0.71
02-Jun	0.95	0.93	0.92	0.91	0.89	0.88	0.86	0.85	0.83	0.82	0.81	0.80	0.79	0.78	0.77	0.76	0.75	0.73	0.72	0.71	0.70
01-Jun	0.93	0.92	0.91	0.89	0.88	0.86	0.85	0.83	0.82	0.81	0.80	0.79	0.78	0.77	0.76	0.75	0.73	0.72	0.71	0.70	0.69
31-May	0.92	0.91	0.89	0.88	0.86	0.85	0.83	0.82	0.81	0.80	0.79	0.78	0.77	0.76	0.75	0.73	0.72	0.71	0.70	0.69	0.68
30-May	0.91	0.89	0.88	0.86	0.85	0.83	0.82	0.81	0.80	0.79	0.78	0.77	0.76	0.75	0.73	0.72	0.71	0.70	0.69	0.68	0.67
29-May	0.89	0.88	0.86	0.85	0.83	0.82	0.81	0.80	0.79	0.78	0.77	0.76	0.75	0.73	0.72	0.71	0.70	0.69	0.68	0.67	0.66
28-May	0.88	0.86	0.85	0.83	0.82	0.81	0.80	0.79	0.78	0.77	0.76	0.75	0.73	0.72	0.71	0.70	0.69	0.68	0.67	0.66	0.65
27-May	0.86	0.85	0.83	0.82	0.81	0.80	0.79	0.78	0.77	0.76	0.75	0.73	0.72	0.71	0.70	0.69	0.68	0.67	0.66	0.65	0.63
26-May	0.85	0.83	0.82	0.81	0.80	0.79	0.78	0.77	0.76	0.75	0.73	0.72	0.71	0.70	0.69	0.68	0.67	0.66	0.65	0.63	0.62
25-May	0.83	0.82	0.81	0.80	0.79	0.78	0.77	0.76	0.75	0.73	0.72	0.71	0.70	0.69	0.68	0.67	0.66	0.65	0.63	0.62	0.59
24-May	0.82	0.81	0.80	0.79	0.78	0.77	0.76	0.75	0.73	0.72	0.71	0.70	0.69	0.68	0.67	0.66	0.65	0.63	0.62	0.59	0.57
23-May	0.81	0.80	0.79	0.78	0.77	0.76	0.75	0.73	0.72	0.71	0.70	0.69	0.68	0.67	0.66	0.65	0.63	0.62	0.59	0.57	0.55
22-May	0.80	0.79	0.78	0.77	0.76	0.75	0.73	0.72	0.71	0.70	0.69	0.68	0.67	0.66	0.65	0.63	0.62	0.59	0.57	0.55	0.52
21-May	0.79	0.78	0.77	0.76	0.75	0.73	0.72	0.71	0.70	0.69	0.68	0.67	0.66	0.65	0.63	0.62	0.59	0.57	0.55	0.52	0.49
20-May	0.78	0.77	0.76	0.75	0.73	0.72	0.71	0.70	0.69	0.68	0.67	0.66	0.65	0.63	0.62	0.59	0.57	0.55	0.52	0.49	0.46
19-May	0.77	0.76	0.75	0.73	0.72	0.71	0.70	0.69	0.68	0.67	0.66	0.65	0.63	0.62	0.59	0.57	0.55	0.52	0.49	0.46	0.42
18-May	0.76	0.75	0.73	0.72	0.71	0.70	0.69	0.68	0.67	0.66	0.65	0.63	0.62	0.59	0.57	0.55	0.52	0.49	0.46	0.42	0.39
17-May	0.75	0.73	0.72	0.71	0.70	0.69	0.68	0.67	0.66	0.65	0.63	0.62	0.59	0.57	0.55	0.52	0.49	0.46	0.42	0.39	0.36
16-May	0.73	0.72	0.71	0.70	0.69	0.68	0.67	0.66	0.65	0.63	0.62	0.59	0.57	0.55	0.52	0.49	0.46	0.42	0.39	0.36	0.35
15-May	0.72	0.71	0.70	0.69	0.68	0.67	0.66	0.65	0.63	0.62	0.59	0.57	0.55	0.52	0.49	0.46	0.42	0.39	0.36	0.35	0.32
14-May	0.71	0.70	0.69	0.68	0.67	0.66	0.65	0.63	0.62	0.59	0.57	0.55	0.52	0.49	0.46	0.42	0.39	0.36	0.35	0.32	0.29
13-May	0.70	0.69	0.68	0.67	0.66	0.65	0.63	0.62	0.59	0.57	0.55	0.52	0.49	0.46	0.42	0.39	0.36	0.35	0.32	0.29	0.26
12-May	0.69	0.68	0.67	0.66	0.65	0.63	0.62	0.59	0.57	0.55	0.52	0.49	0.46	0.42	0.39	0.36	0.35	0.32	0.29	0.26	0.23
11-May	0.68	0.67	0.66	0.65	0.63	0.62	0.59	0.57	0.55	0.52	0.49	0.46	0.42	0.39	0.36	0.35	0.32	0.29	0.26	0.23	0.20
10-May	0.67	0.66	0.65	0.63	0.62	0.59	0.57	0.55	0.52	0.49	0.46	0.42	0.39	0.36	0.35	0.32	0.29	0.26	0.23	0.20	0.17
09-May	0.66	0.65	0.63	0.62	0.59	0.57	0.55	0.52	0.49	0.46	0.42	0.39	0.36	0.35	0.32	0.29	0.26	0.23	0.20	0.17	0.14
08-May	0.65	0.63	0.62	0.59	0.57	0.55	0.52	0.49	0.46	0.42	0.39	0.36	0.35	0.32	0.29	0.26	0.23	0.20	0.17	0.14	0.12
07-May	0.63	0.62	0.59	0.57	0.55	0.52	0.49	0.46	0.42	0.39	0.36	0.35	0.32	0.29	0.26	0.23	0.20	0.17	0.14	0.12	0.09
06-May	0.62	0.59	0.57	0.55	0.52	0.49	0.46	0.42	0.39	0.36	0.35	0.32	0.29	0.26	0.23	0.20	0.17	0.14	0.12	0.09	0.08
05-May	0.59	0.57	0.55	0.52	0.49	0.46	0.42	0.39	0.36	0.35	0.32	0.29	0.26	0.23	0.20	0.17	0.14	0.12	0.09	0.08	0.06
04-May	0.57	0.55	0.52	0.49	0.46	0.42	0.39	0.36	0.35	0.32	0.29	0.26	0.23	0.20	0.17	0.14	0.12	0.09	0.08	0.06	0.05
03-May	0.55	0.52	0.49	0.46	0.42	0.39	0.36	0.35	0.32	0.29	0.26	0.23	0.20	0.17	0.14	0.12	0.09	0.08	0.06	0.05	0.04
02-May	0.52	0.49	0.46	0.42	0.39	0.36	0.35	0.32	0.29	0.26	0.23	0.20	0.17	0.14	0.12	0.09	0.08	0.06	0.05	0.04	0.03
01-May	0.49	0.46	0.42	0.39	0.36	0.35	0.32	0.29	0.26	0.23	0.20	0.17	0.14	0.12	0.09	0.08	0.06	0.05	0.04	0.03	0.02
30-Apr	0.46	0.42	0.39	0.36	0.35	0.32	0.29	0.26	0.23	0.20	0.17	0.14	0.12	0.09	0.08	0.06	0.05	0.04	0.03	0.02	0.02
29-Apr	0.42	0.39	0.36	0.35	0.32	0.29	0.26	0.23	0.20	0.17	0.14	0.12	0.09	0.08	0.06	0.05	0.04	0.03	0.02	0.02	0.02
28-Apr	0.39	0.36	0.35	0.32	0.29	0.26	0.23	0.20	0.17	0.14	0.12	0.09	0.08	0.06	0.05	0.04	0.03	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.01
27-Apr	0.36	0.35	0.32	0.29	0.26	0.23	0.20	0.17	0.14	0.12	0.09	0.08	0.06	0.05	0.04	0.03	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.01	0.01
26-Apr	0.35	0.32	0.29	0.26	0.23	0.20	0.17	0.14	0.12	0.09	0.08	0.06	0.05	0.04	0.03	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.01	0.01	0.01
25-Apr	0.32	0.29	0.26	0.23	0.20	0.17	0.14	0.12	0.09	0.08	0.06	0.05	0.04	0.03	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01
24-Apr	0.29	0.26	0.23	0.20	0.17	0.14	0.12	0.09	0.08	0.06	0.05	0.04	0.03	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01
23-Apr	0.26	0.23	0.20	0.17	0.14	0.12	0.09	0.08	0.06	0.05	0.04	0.03	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01
22-Apr	0.23	0.20	0.17	0.14	0.12	0.09	0.08	0.06	0.05	0.04	0.03	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01
21-Apr	0.20	0.17	0.14	0.12	0.09	0.08	0.06	0.05	0.04	0.03	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00
20-Apr	0.17	0.14	0.12	0.09	0.08	0.06	0.05	0.04	0.03	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00
19-Apr	0.14	0.12	0.09	0.08	0.06	0.05	0.04	0.03	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00
18-Apr	0.12	0.09	0.08	0.06	0.05	0.04	0.03	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
17-Apr	0.09	0.08	0.06	0.05	0.04	0.03	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
16-Apr	0.08	0.06	0.05	0.04	0.03	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
15-Apr	0.06	0.05	0.04	0.03	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
14-Apr	0.05	0.04	0.03	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
13-Apr	0.04	0.03	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
12-Apr	0.03	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
11-Apr	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
10-Apr	0.02	0.02	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
09-Apr	0.02	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
08-Apr	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
07-Apr	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
06-Apr	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
05-Apr	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
04-Apr	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
03-Apr	0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
02-Apr	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
01-Apr	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
31-Mar	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
30-Mar	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
29-Mar	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
28-Mar	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
27-Mar	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
26-Mar	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
25-Mar	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
24-Mar	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
23-Mar	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
22-Mar	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
21-Mar	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
20-Mar	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
19-Mar	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
18-Mar	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
17-Mar	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
16-Mar	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
15-Mar	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
14-Mar	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
13-Mar	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
12-Mar	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
11-Mar	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
10-Mar	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	NA
09-Mar	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	NA	NA
08-Mar	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	NA	NA	NA
07-Mar	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	NA	NA	NA	NA
06-Mar	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA
05-Mar	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA
04-Mar	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA
03-Mar	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA
02-Mar	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA
01-Mar	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA

summer

The cumulative summer season adult Chinook passage at Bonneville Dam through July 31, 2025 is 43,013. The 10-year (2015–2024) average proportion of the count that has occurred at Bonneville Dam through July 31 is 100%. Based on the cumulative counts to date and this proportion, the expected total summer (Jun 16–Jul 31) season dam count would be 43,035 (95% prediction interval = 43,035 – 43,035 and 50% prediction interval = 43,035 – 43,035) adult Chinook.

Current year

Daily adult chinook salmon counts, flow, and temperature measurements taken at Bonneville Dam.

Percent complete

Percent of the run complete by date in 2010–2024. Lower and upper hinges correspond to the first and third quartiles (the 25th and 75th percentiles).The upper whisker extends from the hinge to the largest value no further than 1.5 * IQR from the hinge (where IQR is the inter-quartile range, or distance between the first and third quartiles). The lower whisker extends from the hinge to the smallest value at most 1.5 * IQR of the hinge. Data beyond the end of the whiskers are called "outlying" points and are plotted individually.

Prediction error

Mean absolute percent error (over 15 year retrospectiv) of predictions based on cumulative counts and 10-year average run timing, by day of year.

Run size predictions

Prediction table

Predictions of the fall season (Mar 1–Jun 15) total adult Chinook salmon count with prediction intervals (50% and 95%) and the mean absolute percent error (MAPE) of predictions made with counts through July 31 in a 15-year retrospective assesment.

Model	Pred	Lo 951	Lo 501	Hi 501	Hi 951	MAPE
10-year ave. timing	43,035	43,035	43,035	43,035	43,035	0%
1 Prediction intervals for different model types are calculated using different methods, which complicates comparison somewhat. See Methods Description for more detail.

Prediction plot

Daily predictions of total counts at Bonneville from different models.

Prediction interval plot

Daily predictions and prediction intervals (95% and 50%). Prediction intervals for different model types are calculated using different methods, so may not be directly comparable. See Methods Description for more details.

Methods description

DLM

This is a penalized dynamic linear model fit with the Sibregresr package. The coefficients are the:

1. log-transformed total count of jacks at Bonneville Dam in the previous year,
2. log-transformed cumulative adult count at Bonneville Dam in the current year,
3. and interaction between an exponential moving average of river discharge and the cumulative adult count.

The prediction interval is based on the standard deviation (in log-space) of forecasts from a 15-year retrospective. In other words, the root mean square error of the forecast error in log space from a 15-year retrospective is used as the standard deviation in a lognormal prediction interval.

ARIMA

This is an ensemble of ARIMA models fit with the SalmonForecasting package (see README at the linked page for details). The covariates are the same as those described above for the DLM. Prediction intervals are the weighted average of the prediction intervals provided by the forecast::forecast() function in R.

Joint likelihood

This is a version of a model that has been used for this purpose of in-season forecasting for several years. The proportion of the run that is complete on a given day is modeled with autoregressive (order 1) errors and an effect of the river discharge covariate. The pre-season forecast is generated using an age-specific sibling regression. I have not yet implemented a retrospective assessment of performance because, in this version, the pre-season forecasts and prediction uncertainty need to be provided, and I have not pulled in the past 15 years’ forecasts.

10 year average run timing

This method takes the 10-year average of the proportion of the run that was complete on a given day and uses it to expand the cumulative counts to date. Performance and prediction intervals are based on a 15-year retrospective as described above for the DLM but assuming a normal prediction distribution for the proportion complete in logit space.

Average timing info

10-year average

Prediction

Date	Daily counts	Cumulative count	10 Days Early	9 Days Early	8 Days Early	7 Days Early	6 Days Early	5 Days Early	4 Days Early	3 Days Early	2 Days Early	1 Days Early	10yr Average	1 Days Late	2 Days Late	3 Days Late	4 Days Late	5 Days Late	6 Days Late	7 Days Late	8 Days Late	9 Days Late	10 Days Late
31-Jul	505	43,013	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	43,035	43,356	43,732	44,137	44,543	44,917	45,334	45,745	46,180	46,628	47,144
30-Jul	618	42,508	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	42,529	42,847	43,219	43,618	44,020	44,390	44,802	45,208	45,637	46,081	46,590	47,118
29-Jul	493	41,890	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	41,911	42,224	42,590	42,984	43,380	43,745	44,150	44,551	44,974	45,411	45,913	46,433	46,992
28-Jul	367	41,397	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	41,418	41,727	42,089	42,478	42,869	43,230	43,631	44,027	44,445	44,876	45,373	45,887	46,439	46,979
27-Jul	424	41,030	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	41,051	41,357	41,716	42,102	42,489	42,846	43,244	43,636	44,051	44,479	44,970	45,480	46,027	46,563	47,139
26-Jul	435	40,606	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	40,626	40,930	41,285	41,667	42,050	42,404	42,797	43,185	43,595	44,019	44,506	45,010	45,552	46,082	46,652	47,319
25-Jul	536	40,171	NA	NA	NA	NA	40,191	40,491	40,842	41,220	41,599	41,949	42,338	42,723	43,128	43,547	44,029	44,528	45,064	45,588	46,152	46,812	47,560
24-Jul	478	39,635	NA	NA	NA	39,655	39,951	40,297	40,670	41,044	41,390	41,774	42,153	42,553	42,966	43,441	43,934	44,462	44,980	45,536	46,188	46,926	47,809
23-Jul	354	39,157	NA	NA	39,177	39,469	39,811	40,180	40,549	40,891	41,270	41,644	42,040	42,448	42,918	43,404	43,926	44,437	44,987	45,631	46,360	47,233	48,101
22-Jul	309	38,803	NA	38,822	39,113	39,452	39,817	40,183	40,521	40,897	41,268	41,660	42,064	42,530	43,011	43,529	44,036	44,581	45,218	45,941	46,806	47,666	48,564
21-Jul	269	38,494	38,513	38,801	39,137	39,500	39,863	40,198	40,571	40,939	41,328	41,729	42,191	42,669	43,182	43,685	44,226	44,858	45,575	46,433	47,286	48,178	49,060
20-Jul	236	38,225	38,530	38,864	39,224	39,584	39,917	40,287	40,653	41,039	41,438	41,896	42,371	42,881	43,380	43,917	44,545	45,256	46,108	46,956	47,841	48,718	49,672
19-Jul	326	37,989	38,624	38,981	39,340	39,671	40,039	40,402	40,786	41,182	41,637	42,109	42,616	43,112	43,645	44,270	44,977	45,824	46,666	47,546	48,417	49,365	50,488
18-Jul	343	37,663	38,647	39,002	39,330	39,695	40,056	40,436	40,829	41,280	41,748	42,250	42,742	43,271	43,890	44,591	45,430	46,266	47,138	48,001	48,941	50,054	51,222
17-Jul	401	37,320	38,647	38,972	39,334	39,691	40,068	40,457	40,904	41,368	41,865	42,353	42,877	43,490	44,185	45,017	45,844	46,708	47,564	48,496	49,598	50,756	52,075
16-Jul	447	36,919	38,553	38,911	39,264	39,637	40,022	40,465	40,923	41,416	41,898	42,416	43,023	43,710	44,533	45,352	46,206	47,053	47,975	49,066	50,210	51,516	52,963
15-Jul	453	36,472	38,440	38,789	39,157	39,538	39,975	40,428	40,914	41,390	41,903	42,502	43,181	43,994	44,803	45,647	46,483	47,394	48,471	49,602	50,892	52,321	53,876
14-Jul	499	36,019	38,307	38,671	39,046	39,478	39,926	40,406	40,876	41,382	41,974	42,645	43,447	44,246	45,080	45,906	46,805	47,869	48,986	50,260	51,672	53,207	55,179
13-Jul	494	35,520	38,135	38,506	38,931	39,372	39,846	40,310	40,809	41,392	42,054	42,845	43,633	44,455	45,270	46,157	47,206	48,308	49,564	50,956	52,470	54,414	56,557
12-Jul	490	35,026	37,970	38,390	38,825	39,292	39,749	40,241	40,817	41,469	42,250	43,026	43,837	44,640	45,515	46,550	47,636	48,874	50,247	51,740	53,657	55,770	58,131
11-Jul	666	34,536	37,853	38,282	38,742	39,193	39,678	40,246	40,889	41,659	42,424	43,224	44,016	44,878	45,899	46,969	48,191	49,544	51,016	52,907	54,990	57,317	60,074
10-Jul	681	33,870	37,543	37,995	38,437	38,913	39,470	40,100	40,855	41,606	42,390	43,167	44,013	45,013	46,064	47,261	48,589	50,032	51,886	53,929	56,212	58,916	61,809
09-Jul	729	33,189	37,231	37,665	38,131	38,676	39,294	40,034	40,770	41,538	42,299	43,128	44,108	45,137	46,311	47,612	49,026	50,843	52,845	55,082	57,731	60,567	64,351
08-Jul	857	32,460	36,837	37,293	37,827	38,431	39,154	39,874	40,626	41,370	42,180	43,140	44,146	45,294	46,566	47,949	49,726	51,684	53,872	56,463	59,236	62,938	67,325
07-Jul	865	31,603	36,309	36,828	37,416	38,121	38,821	39,553	40,278	41,067	42,001	42,980	44,098	45,337	46,683	48,414	50,320	52,450	54,972	57,672	61,276	65,547	71,091
06-Jul	917	30,738	35,820	36,392	37,077	37,759	38,470	39,175	39,943	40,851	41,804	42,891	44,096	45,406	47,088	48,943	51,014	53,468	56,094	59,599	63,753	69,145	75,342
05-Jul	906	29,821	35,306	35,971	36,632	37,323	38,007	38,751	39,632	40,557	41,611	42,780	44,051	45,684	47,482	49,492	51,873	54,420	57,821	61,851	67,083	73,094	80,615
04-Jul	1,053	28,915	34,878	35,519	36,189	36,852	37,574	38,428	39,325	40,347	41,480	42,713	44,296	46,040	47,989	50,297	52,767	56,064	59,972	65,044	70,874	78,165	87,252
03-Jul	1,237	27,862	34,226	34,871	35,510	36,205	37,029	37,893	38,878	39,970	41,157	42,683	44,363	46,241	48,465	50,845	54,023	57,788	62,676	68,293	75,319	84,074	95,023
02-Jul	1,607	26,625	33,323	33,933	34,598	35,385	36,210	37,152	38,195	39,330	40,788	42,394	44,188	46,313	48,588	51,624	55,223	59,893	65,261	71,975	80,342	90,804	105,314
01-Jul	1,710	25,018	31,885	32,510	33,249	34,025	34,909	35,890	36,956	38,326	39,835	41,521	43,518	45,655	48,508	51,890	56,278	61,322	67,631	75,493	85,324	98,957	116,496
30-Jun	1,385	23,308	30,288	30,976	31,699	32,523	33,437	34,430	35,706	37,112	38,683	40,544	42,535	45,193	48,343	52,431	57,130	63,008	70,333	79,492	92,193	108,533	130,665
29-Jun	1,120	21,923	29,136	29,816	30,591	31,450	32,384	33,584	34,907	36,384	38,134	40,007	42,507	45,470	49,316	53,736	59,264	66,153	74,768	86,715	102,084	122,900	151,956
28-Jun	989	20,803	28,292	29,028	29,843	30,730	31,869	33,124	34,526	36,186	37,963	40,336	43,147	46,796	50,990	56,236	62,774	70,949	82,285	96,869	116,622	144,193	186,103
27-Jun	1,438	19,814	27,648	28,424	29,269	30,354	31,549	32,884	34,466	36,159	38,418	41,096	44,572	48,566	53,563	59,789	67,576	78,373	92,263	111,077	137,338	177,256	254,679
26-Jun	1,693	18,376	26,362	27,145	28,151	29,259	30,498	31,965	33,534	35,630	38,113	41,337	45,042	49,676	55,450	62,671	72,685	85,567	103,016	127,371	164,391	236,196	436,288
25-Jun	1,572	16,683	24,644	25,557	26,563	27,688	29,020	30,445	32,347	34,602	37,529	40,892	45,099	50,341	56,897	65,989	77,684	93,525	115,636	149,246	214,435	396,093	NA
24-Jun	1,344	15,111	23,149	24,060	25,079	26,285	27,576	29,299	31,342	33,992	37,039	40,849	45,598	51,536	59,771	70,364	84,712	104,740	135,183	194,229	358,770	NA	NA
23-Jun	1,796	13,767	21,920	22,848	23,947	25,123	26,693	28,554	30,969	33,744	37,216	41,542	46,952	54,455	64,106	77,178	95,424	123,159	176,954	326,860	NA	NA	NA
22-Jun	1,650	11,971	19,868	20,823	21,846	23,211	24,829	26,929	29,342	32,361	36,123	40,827	47,351	55,743	67,109	82,975	107,092	153,869	284,219	NA	NA	NA	NA
21-Jun	1,754	10,321	17,953	18,835	20,012	21,407	23,217	25,298	27,901	31,144	35,200	40,824	48,059	57,860	71,538	92,331	132,661	245,044	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA
20-Jun	1,643	8,567	15,634	16,611	17,769	19,272	20,999	23,159	25,851	29,218	33,886	39,892	48,027	59,381	76,640	110,116	203,400	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA
19-Jun	1,919	6,924	13,425	14,361	15,576	16,971	18,718	20,893	23,614	27,387	32,241	38,816	47,993	61,942	88,998	164,392	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA
18-Jun	1,885	5,005	10,381	11,259	12,268	13,530	15,103	17,070	19,797	23,306	28,058	34,691	44,775	64,332	118,830	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA
17-Jun	1,486	3,120	7,018	7,647	8,434	9,415	10,641	12,341	14,528	17,491	21,626	27,911	40,103	74,076	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA
16-Jun	1,634	1,634	4,005	4,417	4,931	5,573	6,463	7,609	9,160	11,326	14,618	21,003	38,795	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA

Proportion complete

Date	10 Days Early	9 Days Early	8 Days Early	7 Days Early	6 Days Early	5 Days Early	4 Days Early	3 Days Early	2 Days Early	1 Days Early	10yr Average	1 Days Late	2 Days Late	3 Days Late	4 Days Late	5 Days Late	6 Days Late	7 Days Late	8 Days Late	9 Days Late	10 Days Late
31-Jul	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	1.00	0.99	0.98	0.97	0.97	0.96	0.95	0.94	0.93	0.92	0.91
30-Jul	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	1.00	0.99	0.98	0.97	0.97	0.96	0.95	0.94	0.93	0.92	0.91	0.90
29-Jul	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	1.00	0.99	0.98	0.97	0.97	0.96	0.95	0.94	0.93	0.92	0.91	0.90	0.89
28-Jul	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	1.00	0.99	0.98	0.97	0.97	0.96	0.95	0.94	0.93	0.92	0.91	0.90	0.89	0.88
27-Jul	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	1.00	0.99	0.98	0.97	0.97	0.96	0.95	0.94	0.93	0.92	0.91	0.90	0.89	0.88	0.87
26-Jul	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	1.00	0.99	0.98	0.97	0.97	0.96	0.95	0.94	0.93	0.92	0.91	0.90	0.89	0.88	0.87	0.86
25-Jul	NA	NA	NA	NA	1.00	0.99	0.98	0.97	0.97	0.96	0.95	0.94	0.93	0.92	0.91	0.90	0.89	0.88	0.87	0.86	0.84
24-Jul	NA	NA	NA	1.00	0.99	0.98	0.97	0.97	0.96	0.95	0.94	0.93	0.92	0.91	0.90	0.89	0.88	0.87	0.86	0.84	0.83
23-Jul	NA	NA	1.00	0.99	0.98	0.97	0.97	0.96	0.95	0.94	0.93	0.92	0.91	0.90	0.89	0.88	0.87	0.86	0.84	0.83	0.81
22-Jul	NA	1.00	0.99	0.98	0.97	0.97	0.96	0.95	0.94	0.93	0.92	0.91	0.90	0.89	0.88	0.87	0.86	0.84	0.83	0.81	0.80
21-Jul	1.00	0.99	0.98	0.97	0.97	0.96	0.95	0.94	0.93	0.92	0.91	0.90	0.89	0.88	0.87	0.86	0.84	0.83	0.81	0.80	0.78
20-Jul	0.99	0.98	0.97	0.97	0.96	0.95	0.94	0.93	0.92	0.91	0.90	0.89	0.88	0.87	0.86	0.84	0.83	0.81	0.80	0.78	0.77
19-Jul	0.98	0.97	0.97	0.96	0.95	0.94	0.93	0.92	0.91	0.90	0.89	0.88	0.87	0.86	0.84	0.83	0.81	0.80	0.78	0.77	0.75
18-Jul	0.97	0.97	0.96	0.95	0.94	0.93	0.92	0.91	0.90	0.89	0.88	0.87	0.86	0.84	0.83	0.81	0.80	0.78	0.77	0.75	0.74
17-Jul	0.97	0.96	0.95	0.94	0.93	0.92	0.91	0.90	0.89	0.88	0.87	0.86	0.84	0.83	0.81	0.80	0.78	0.77	0.75	0.74	0.72
16-Jul	0.96	0.95	0.94	0.93	0.92	0.91	0.90	0.89	0.88	0.87	0.86	0.84	0.83	0.81	0.80	0.78	0.77	0.75	0.74	0.72	0.70
15-Jul	0.95	0.94	0.93	0.92	0.91	0.90	0.89	0.88	0.87	0.86	0.84	0.83	0.81	0.80	0.78	0.77	0.75	0.74	0.72	0.70	0.68
14-Jul	0.94	0.93	0.92	0.91	0.90	0.89	0.88	0.87	0.86	0.84	0.83	0.81	0.80	0.78	0.77	0.75	0.74	0.72	0.70	0.68	0.65
13-Jul	0.93	0.92	0.91	0.90	0.89	0.88	0.87	0.86	0.84	0.83	0.81	0.80	0.78	0.77	0.75	0.74	0.72	0.70	0.68	0.65	0.63
12-Jul	0.92	0.91	0.90	0.89	0.88	0.87	0.86	0.84	0.83	0.81	0.80	0.78	0.77	0.75	0.74	0.72	0.70	0.68	0.65	0.63	0.60
11-Jul	0.91	0.90	0.89	0.88	0.87	0.86	0.84	0.83	0.81	0.80	0.78	0.77	0.75	0.74	0.72	0.70	0.68	0.65	0.63	0.60	0.57
10-Jul	0.90	0.89	0.88	0.87	0.86	0.84	0.83	0.81	0.80	0.78	0.77	0.75	0.74	0.72	0.70	0.68	0.65	0.63	0.60	0.57	0.55
09-Jul	0.89	0.88	0.87	0.86	0.84	0.83	0.81	0.80	0.78	0.77	0.75	0.74	0.72	0.70	0.68	0.65	0.63	0.60	0.57	0.55	0.52
08-Jul	0.88	0.87	0.86	0.84	0.83	0.81	0.80	0.78	0.77	0.75	0.74	0.72	0.70	0.68	0.65	0.63	0.60	0.57	0.55	0.52	0.48
07-Jul	0.87	0.86	0.84	0.83	0.81	0.80	0.78	0.77	0.75	0.74	0.72	0.70	0.68	0.65	0.63	0.60	0.57	0.55	0.52	0.48	0.44
06-Jul	0.86	0.84	0.83	0.81	0.80	0.78	0.77	0.75	0.74	0.72	0.70	0.68	0.65	0.63	0.60	0.57	0.55	0.52	0.48	0.44	0.41
05-Jul	0.84	0.83	0.81	0.80	0.78	0.77	0.75	0.74	0.72	0.70	0.68	0.65	0.63	0.60	0.57	0.55	0.52	0.48	0.44	0.41	0.37
04-Jul	0.83	0.81	0.80	0.78	0.77	0.75	0.74	0.72	0.70	0.68	0.65	0.63	0.60	0.57	0.55	0.52	0.48	0.44	0.41	0.37	0.33
03-Jul	0.81	0.80	0.78	0.77	0.75	0.74	0.72	0.70	0.68	0.65	0.63	0.60	0.57	0.55	0.52	0.48	0.44	0.41	0.37	0.33	0.29
02-Jul	0.80	0.78	0.77	0.75	0.74	0.72	0.70	0.68	0.65	0.63	0.60	0.57	0.55	0.52	0.48	0.44	0.41	0.37	0.33	0.29	0.25
01-Jul	0.78	0.77	0.75	0.74	0.72	0.70	0.68	0.65	0.63	0.60	0.57	0.55	0.52	0.48	0.44	0.41	0.37	0.33	0.29	0.25	0.21
30-Jun	0.77	0.75	0.74	0.72	0.70	0.68	0.65	0.63	0.60	0.57	0.55	0.52	0.48	0.44	0.41	0.37	0.33	0.29	0.25	0.21	0.18
29-Jun	0.75	0.74	0.72	0.70	0.68	0.65	0.63	0.60	0.57	0.55	0.52	0.48	0.44	0.41	0.37	0.33	0.29	0.25	0.21	0.18	0.14
28-Jun	0.74	0.72	0.70	0.68	0.65	0.63	0.60	0.57	0.55	0.52	0.48	0.44	0.41	0.37	0.33	0.29	0.25	0.21	0.18	0.14	0.11
27-Jun	0.72	0.70	0.68	0.65	0.63	0.60	0.57	0.55	0.52	0.48	0.44	0.41	0.37	0.33	0.29	0.25	0.21	0.18	0.14	0.11	0.08
26-Jun	0.70	0.68	0.65	0.63	0.60	0.57	0.55	0.52	0.48	0.44	0.41	0.37	0.33	0.29	0.25	0.21	0.18	0.14	0.11	0.08	0.04
25-Jun	0.68	0.65	0.63	0.60	0.57	0.55	0.52	0.48	0.44	0.41	0.37	0.33	0.29	0.25	0.21	0.18	0.14	0.11	0.08	0.04	NA
24-Jun	0.65	0.63	0.60	0.57	0.55	0.52	0.48	0.44	0.41	0.37	0.33	0.29	0.25	0.21	0.18	0.14	0.11	0.08	0.04	NA	NA
23-Jun	0.63	0.60	0.57	0.55	0.52	0.48	0.44	0.41	0.37	0.33	0.29	0.25	0.21	0.18	0.14	0.11	0.08	0.04	NA	NA	NA
22-Jun	0.60	0.57	0.55	0.52	0.48	0.44	0.41	0.37	0.33	0.29	0.25	0.21	0.18	0.14	0.11	0.08	0.04	NA	NA	NA	NA
21-Jun	0.57	0.55	0.52	0.48	0.44	0.41	0.37	0.33	0.29	0.25	0.21	0.18	0.14	0.11	0.08	0.04	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA
20-Jun	0.55	0.52	0.48	0.44	0.41	0.37	0.33	0.29	0.25	0.21	0.18	0.14	0.11	0.08	0.04	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA
19-Jun	0.52	0.48	0.44	0.41	0.37	0.33	0.29	0.25	0.21	0.18	0.14	0.11	0.08	0.04	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA
18-Jun	0.48	0.44	0.41	0.37	0.33	0.29	0.25	0.21	0.18	0.14	0.11	0.08	0.04	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA
17-Jun	0.44	0.41	0.37	0.33	0.29	0.25	0.21	0.18	0.14	0.11	0.08	0.04	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA
16-Jun	0.41	0.37	0.33	0.29	0.25	0.21	0.18	0.14	0.11	0.08	0.04	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA

5-year average

Prediction

Date	Daily counts	Cumulative count	10 Days Early	9 Days Early	8 Days Early	7 Days Early	6 Days Early	5 Days Early	4 Days Early	3 Days Early	2 Days Early	1 Days Early	5yr Average	1 Days Late	2 Days Late	3 Days Late	4 Days Late	5 Days Late	6 Days Late	7 Days Late	8 Days Late	9 Days Late	10 Days Late
31-Jul	505	43,013	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	43,035	43,365	43,711	44,106	44,506	44,848	45,210	45,557	45,960	46,346	46,792
30-Jul	618	42,508	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	42,529	42,856	43,198	43,588	43,984	44,322	44,679	45,022	45,420	45,802	46,243	46,723
29-Jul	493	41,890	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	41,911	42,233	42,570	42,955	43,344	43,678	44,030	44,368	44,760	45,136	45,571	46,043	46,516
28-Jul	367	41,397	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	41,418	41,736	42,069	42,449	42,834	43,163	43,512	43,845	44,233	44,605	45,034	45,501	45,968	46,506
27-Jul	424	41,030	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	41,051	41,366	41,696	42,073	42,454	42,781	43,126	43,457	43,841	44,210	44,635	45,098	45,561	46,093	46,642
26-Jul	435	40,606	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	40,626	40,938	41,265	41,638	42,016	42,339	42,680	43,008	43,388	43,753	44,174	44,632	45,090	45,617	46,160	46,789
25-Jul	536	40,171	NA	NA	NA	NA	40,191	40,500	40,823	41,192	41,566	41,885	42,223	42,547	42,923	43,284	43,701	44,154	44,607	45,128	45,666	46,288	46,931
24-Jul	478	39,635	NA	NA	NA	39,655	39,959	40,278	40,642	41,011	41,326	41,660	41,979	42,351	42,707	43,117	43,565	44,012	44,526	45,057	45,670	46,305	46,980
23-Jul	354	39,157	NA	NA	39,177	39,478	39,793	40,152	40,516	40,828	41,157	41,473	41,840	42,192	42,597	43,039	43,481	43,989	44,513	45,119	45,746	46,413	47,134
22-Jul	309	38,803	NA	38,822	39,121	39,433	39,789	40,150	40,459	40,785	41,098	41,462	41,810	42,212	42,650	43,088	43,592	44,111	44,711	45,333	45,994	46,708	47,541
21-Jul	269	38,494	38,513	38,809	39,119	39,472	39,830	40,137	40,460	40,771	41,131	41,477	41,876	42,311	42,745	43,244	43,760	44,355	44,972	45,628	46,336	47,162	47,991
20-Jul	236	38,225	38,538	38,845	39,197	39,552	39,856	40,178	40,486	40,844	41,187	41,584	42,015	42,446	42,942	43,454	44,045	44,658	45,309	46,012	46,833	47,656	48,586
19-Jul	326	37,989	38,606	38,955	39,308	39,610	39,929	40,236	40,592	40,933	41,327	41,756	42,184	42,677	43,186	43,773	44,382	45,029	45,728	46,544	47,361	48,286	49,316
18-Jul	343	37,663	38,620	38,971	39,270	39,587	39,891	40,243	40,582	40,972	41,397	41,822	42,311	42,815	43,398	44,001	44,643	45,336	46,144	46,955	47,872	48,892	49,906
17-Jul	401	37,320	38,616	38,912	39,226	39,527	39,877	40,212	40,599	41,020	41,441	41,926	42,425	43,002	43,600	44,236	44,923	45,724	46,527	47,436	48,447	49,451	50,663
16-Jul	447	36,919	38,494	38,805	39,103	39,448	39,780	40,163	40,579	40,996	41,475	41,969	42,540	43,132	43,761	44,440	45,233	46,028	46,926	47,927	48,920	50,119	51,488
15-Jul	453	36,472	38,335	38,629	38,971	39,299	39,677	40,088	40,500	40,973	41,461	42,025	42,610	43,231	43,902	44,685	45,470	46,358	47,346	48,328	49,512	50,864	52,407
14-Jul	499	36,019	38,149	38,487	38,810	39,184	39,590	39,997	40,464	40,946	41,503	42,080	42,694	43,357	44,130	44,905	45,782	46,758	47,727	48,897	50,232	51,756	53,654
13-Jul	494	35,520	37,954	38,273	38,641	39,042	39,442	39,903	40,379	40,928	41,497	42,102	42,756	43,519	44,283	45,148	46,111	47,066	48,220	49,537	51,039	52,910	54,824
12-Jul	490	35,026	37,740	38,104	38,499	38,894	39,348	39,817	40,359	40,920	41,517	42,162	42,913	43,667	44,520	45,469	46,412	47,549	48,848	50,329	52,175	54,061	56,235
11-Jul	666	34,536	37,570	37,960	38,350	38,798	39,260	39,795	40,348	40,936	41,572	42,313	43,057	43,897	44,833	45,762	46,884	48,164	49,625	51,445	53,305	55,449	58,008
10-Jul	681	33,870	37,228	37,610	38,050	38,503	39,027	39,570	40,147	40,770	41,497	42,226	43,050	43,969	44,880	45,980	47,235	48,668	50,453	52,277	54,379	56,890	59,797
09-Jul	729	33,189	36,854	37,285	37,729	38,242	38,774	39,339	39,950	40,663	41,377	42,185	43,085	43,977	45,055	46,286	47,689	49,438	51,226	53,286	55,746	58,595	62,323
08-Jul	857	32,460	36,466	36,900	37,402	37,922	38,475	39,073	39,770	40,468	41,258	42,138	43,011	44,066	45,269	46,642	48,352	50,101	52,116	54,521	57,308	60,954	65,228
07-Jul	865	31,603	35,926	36,415	36,921	37,460	38,041	38,720	39,400	40,169	41,026	41,876	42,902	44,074	45,410	47,076	48,778	50,740	53,082	55,795	59,345	63,505	69,463
06-Jul	917	30,738	35,418	35,911	36,434	37,000	37,660	38,322	39,070	39,903	40,730	41,728	42,867	44,168	45,787	47,443	49,351	51,629	54,268	57,720	61,767	67,562	74,043
05-Jul	906	29,821	34,839	35,347	35,896	36,536	37,178	37,904	38,712	39,515	40,483	41,589	42,850	44,421	46,027	47,879	50,089	52,649	55,998	59,925	65,546	71,834	79,772
04-Jul	1,053	28,915	34,273	34,806	35,426	36,049	36,752	37,536	38,314	39,253	40,325	41,548	43,072	44,629	46,424	48,567	51,049	54,297	58,104	63,555	69,652	77,348	86,496
03-Jul	1,237	27,862	33,538	34,136	34,736	35,414	36,169	36,919	37,824	38,857	40,035	41,503	43,004	44,733	46,798	49,190	52,320	55,988	61,240	67,115	74,532	83,347	93,855
02-Jul	1,607	26,625	32,621	33,194	33,842	34,563	35,280	36,144	37,131	38,258	39,660	41,094	42,747	44,721	47,006	49,997	53,502	58,521	64,136	71,223	79,646	89,688	104,365
01-Jul	1,710	25,018	31,190	31,799	32,477	33,150	33,963	34,890	35,948	37,267	38,614	40,167	42,021	44,169	46,979	50,273	54,989	60,265	66,924	74,839	84,275	98,066	115,045
30-Jun	1,385	23,308	29,626	30,257	30,884	31,641	32,506	33,491	34,719	35,975	37,422	39,149	41,150	43,768	46,837	51,231	56,145	62,350	69,724	78,515	91,363	107,182	130,732
29-Jun	1,120	21,923	28,459	29,049	29,761	30,574	31,501	32,656	33,837	35,198	36,823	38,705	41,167	44,054	48,186	52,809	58,645	65,581	73,849	85,934	100,813	122,964	156,865
28-Jun	989	20,803	27,565	28,241	29,012	29,892	30,988	32,108	33,400	34,942	36,727	39,064	41,803	45,725	50,111	55,649	62,230	70,076	81,544	95,663	116,682	148,851	189,944
27-Jun	1,438	19,814	26,898	27,633	28,471	29,515	30,582	31,812	33,280	34,981	37,207	39,816	43,551	47,729	53,003	59,272	66,745	77,667	91,115	111,134	141,775	180,914	258,633
26-Jun	1,693	18,376	25,627	26,405	27,373	28,363	29,503	30,865	32,443	34,507	36,926	40,390	44,265	49,156	54,970	61,901	72,030	84,502	103,069	131,486	167,784	239,863	439,472
25-Jun	1,572	16,683	23,972	24,851	25,749	26,785	28,022	29,454	31,328	33,524	36,669	40,187	44,628	49,906	56,198	65,394	76,717	93,573	119,372	152,326	217,764	398,983	NA
24-Jun	1,344	15,111	22,509	23,323	24,261	25,381	26,678	28,376	30,365	33,214	36,400	40,422	45,203	50,902	59,232	69,488	84,756	108,124	137,973	197,245	361,388	NA	NA
23-Jun	1,796	13,767	21,249	22,103	23,124	24,305	25,852	27,664	30,260	33,163	36,827	41,183	46,375	53,964	63,308	77,218	98,507	125,701	179,702	329,245	NA	NA	NA
22-Jun	1,650	11,971	19,220	20,107	21,135	22,479	24,055	26,312	28,836	32,023	35,810	40,325	46,924	55,049	67,144	85,656	109,303	156,258	286,293	NA	NA	NA	NA
21-Jun	1,754	10,321	17,336	18,222	19,381	20,740	22,685	24,862	27,609	30,874	34,767	40,456	47,461	57,889	73,850	94,237	134,721	246,832	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA
20-Jun	1,643	8,567	15,125	16,087	17,215	18,830	20,637	22,917	25,627	28,859	33,581	39,395	48,051	61,299	78,222	111,826	204,885	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA
19-Jun	1,919	6,924	13,002	13,914	15,219	16,679	18,522	20,712	23,324	27,141	31,840	38,836	49,543	63,220	90,379	165,591	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA
18-Jun	1,885	5,005	10,057	11,001	12,056	13,389	14,972	16,860	19,619	23,016	28,072	35,812	45,699	65,331	119,697	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA
17-Jun	1,486	3,120	6,858	7,516	8,346	9,333	10,510	12,230	14,347	17,500	22,324	28,488	40,726	74,617	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA
16-Jun	1,634	1,634	3,936	4,371	4,888	5,504	6,405	7,514	9,165	11,692	14,919	21,329	39,078	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA

Proportion complete

Date	10 Days Early	9 Days Early	8 Days Early	7 Days Early	6 Days Early	5 Days Early	4 Days Early	3 Days Early	2 Days Early	1 Days Early	5yr Average	1 Days Late	2 Days Late	3 Days Late	4 Days Late	5 Days Late	6 Days Late	7 Days Late	8 Days Late	9 Days Late	10 Days Late
31-Jul	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	1.00	0.99	0.98	0.98	0.97	0.96	0.95	0.94	0.94	0.93	0.92
30-Jul	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	1.00	0.99	0.98	0.98	0.97	0.96	0.95	0.94	0.94	0.93	0.92	0.91
29-Jul	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	1.00	0.99	0.98	0.98	0.97	0.96	0.95	0.94	0.94	0.93	0.92	0.91	0.90
28-Jul	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	1.00	0.99	0.98	0.98	0.97	0.96	0.95	0.94	0.94	0.93	0.92	0.91	0.90	0.89
27-Jul	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	1.00	0.99	0.98	0.98	0.97	0.96	0.95	0.94	0.94	0.93	0.92	0.91	0.90	0.89	0.88
26-Jul	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	1.00	0.99	0.98	0.98	0.97	0.96	0.95	0.94	0.94	0.93	0.92	0.91	0.90	0.89	0.88	0.87
25-Jul	NA	NA	NA	NA	1.00	0.99	0.98	0.98	0.97	0.96	0.95	0.94	0.94	0.93	0.92	0.91	0.90	0.89	0.88	0.87	0.86
24-Jul	NA	NA	NA	1.00	0.99	0.98	0.98	0.97	0.96	0.95	0.94	0.94	0.93	0.92	0.91	0.90	0.89	0.88	0.87	0.86	0.84
23-Jul	NA	NA	1.00	0.99	0.98	0.98	0.97	0.96	0.95	0.94	0.94	0.93	0.92	0.91	0.90	0.89	0.88	0.87	0.86	0.84	0.83
22-Jul	NA	1.00	0.99	0.98	0.98	0.97	0.96	0.95	0.94	0.94	0.93	0.92	0.91	0.90	0.89	0.88	0.87	0.86	0.84	0.83	0.82
21-Jul	1.00	0.99	0.98	0.98	0.97	0.96	0.95	0.94	0.94	0.93	0.92	0.91	0.90	0.89	0.88	0.87	0.86	0.84	0.83	0.82	0.80
20-Jul	0.99	0.98	0.98	0.97	0.96	0.95	0.94	0.94	0.93	0.92	0.91	0.90	0.89	0.88	0.87	0.86	0.84	0.83	0.82	0.80	0.79
19-Jul	0.98	0.98	0.97	0.96	0.95	0.94	0.94	0.93	0.92	0.91	0.90	0.89	0.88	0.87	0.86	0.84	0.83	0.82	0.80	0.79	0.77
18-Jul	0.98	0.97	0.96	0.95	0.94	0.94	0.93	0.92	0.91	0.90	0.89	0.88	0.87	0.86	0.84	0.83	0.82	0.80	0.79	0.77	0.75
17-Jul	0.97	0.96	0.95	0.94	0.94	0.93	0.92	0.91	0.90	0.89	0.88	0.87	0.86	0.84	0.83	0.82	0.80	0.79	0.77	0.75	0.74
16-Jul	0.96	0.95	0.94	0.94	0.93	0.92	0.91	0.90	0.89	0.88	0.87	0.86	0.84	0.83	0.82	0.80	0.79	0.77	0.75	0.74	0.72
15-Jul	0.95	0.94	0.94	0.93	0.92	0.91	0.90	0.89	0.88	0.87	0.86	0.84	0.83	0.82	0.80	0.79	0.77	0.75	0.74	0.72	0.70
14-Jul	0.94	0.94	0.93	0.92	0.91	0.90	0.89	0.88	0.87	0.86	0.84	0.83	0.82	0.80	0.79	0.77	0.75	0.74	0.72	0.70	0.67
13-Jul	0.94	0.93	0.92	0.91	0.90	0.89	0.88	0.87	0.86	0.84	0.83	0.82	0.80	0.79	0.77	0.75	0.74	0.72	0.70	0.67	0.65
12-Jul	0.93	0.92	0.91	0.90	0.89	0.88	0.87	0.86	0.84	0.83	0.82	0.80	0.79	0.77	0.75	0.74	0.72	0.70	0.67	0.65	0.62
11-Jul	0.92	0.91	0.90	0.89	0.88	0.87	0.86	0.84	0.83	0.82	0.80	0.79	0.77	0.75	0.74	0.72	0.70	0.67	0.65	0.62	0.60
10-Jul	0.91	0.90	0.89	0.88	0.87	0.86	0.84	0.83	0.82	0.80	0.79	0.77	0.75	0.74	0.72	0.70	0.67	0.65	0.62	0.60	0.57
09-Jul	0.90	0.89	0.88	0.87	0.86	0.84	0.83	0.82	0.80	0.79	0.77	0.75	0.74	0.72	0.70	0.67	0.65	0.62	0.60	0.57	0.53
08-Jul	0.89	0.88	0.87	0.86	0.84	0.83	0.82	0.80	0.79	0.77	0.75	0.74	0.72	0.70	0.67	0.65	0.62	0.60	0.57	0.53	0.50
07-Jul	0.88	0.87	0.86	0.84	0.83	0.82	0.80	0.79	0.77	0.75	0.74	0.72	0.70	0.67	0.65	0.62	0.60	0.57	0.53	0.50	0.45
06-Jul	0.87	0.86	0.84	0.83	0.82	0.80	0.79	0.77	0.75	0.74	0.72	0.70	0.67	0.65	0.62	0.60	0.57	0.53	0.50	0.45	0.42
05-Jul	0.86	0.84	0.83	0.82	0.80	0.79	0.77	0.75	0.74	0.72	0.70	0.67	0.65	0.62	0.60	0.57	0.53	0.50	0.45	0.42	0.37
04-Jul	0.84	0.83	0.82	0.80	0.79	0.77	0.75	0.74	0.72	0.70	0.67	0.65	0.62	0.60	0.57	0.53	0.50	0.45	0.42	0.37	0.33
03-Jul	0.83	0.82	0.80	0.79	0.77	0.75	0.74	0.72	0.70	0.67	0.65	0.62	0.60	0.57	0.53	0.50	0.45	0.42	0.37	0.33	0.30
02-Jul	0.82	0.80	0.79	0.77	0.75	0.74	0.72	0.70	0.67	0.65	0.62	0.60	0.57	0.53	0.50	0.45	0.42	0.37	0.33	0.30	0.26
01-Jul	0.80	0.79	0.77	0.75	0.74	0.72	0.70	0.67	0.65	0.62	0.60	0.57	0.53	0.50	0.45	0.42	0.37	0.33	0.30	0.26	0.22
30-Jun	0.79	0.77	0.75	0.74	0.72	0.70	0.67	0.65	0.62	0.60	0.57	0.53	0.50	0.45	0.42	0.37	0.33	0.30	0.26	0.22	0.18
29-Jun	0.77	0.75	0.74	0.72	0.70	0.67	0.65	0.62	0.60	0.57	0.53	0.50	0.45	0.42	0.37	0.33	0.30	0.26	0.22	0.18	0.14
28-Jun	0.75	0.74	0.72	0.70	0.67	0.65	0.62	0.60	0.57	0.53	0.50	0.45	0.42	0.37	0.33	0.30	0.26	0.22	0.18	0.14	0.11
27-Jun	0.74	0.72	0.70	0.67	0.65	0.62	0.60	0.57	0.53	0.50	0.45	0.42	0.37	0.33	0.30	0.26	0.22	0.18	0.14	0.11	0.08
26-Jun	0.72	0.70	0.67	0.65	0.62	0.60	0.57	0.53	0.50	0.45	0.42	0.37	0.33	0.30	0.26	0.22	0.18	0.14	0.11	0.08	0.04
25-Jun	0.70	0.67	0.65	0.62	0.60	0.57	0.53	0.50	0.45	0.42	0.37	0.33	0.30	0.26	0.22	0.18	0.14	0.11	0.08	0.04	NA
24-Jun	0.67	0.65	0.62	0.60	0.57	0.53	0.50	0.45	0.42	0.37	0.33	0.30	0.26	0.22	0.18	0.14	0.11	0.08	0.04	NA	NA
23-Jun	0.65	0.62	0.60	0.57	0.53	0.50	0.45	0.42	0.37	0.33	0.30	0.26	0.22	0.18	0.14	0.11	0.08	0.04	NA	NA	NA
22-Jun	0.62	0.60	0.57	0.53	0.50	0.45	0.42	0.37	0.33	0.30	0.26	0.22	0.18	0.14	0.11	0.08	0.04	NA	NA	NA	NA
21-Jun	0.60	0.57	0.53	0.50	0.45	0.42	0.37	0.33	0.30	0.26	0.22	0.18	0.14	0.11	0.08	0.04	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA
20-Jun	0.57	0.53	0.50	0.45	0.42	0.37	0.33	0.30	0.26	0.22	0.18	0.14	0.11	0.08	0.04	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA
19-Jun	0.53	0.50	0.45	0.42	0.37	0.33	0.30	0.26	0.22	0.18	0.14	0.11	0.08	0.04	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA
18-Jun	0.50	0.45	0.42	0.37	0.33	0.30	0.26	0.22	0.18	0.14	0.11	0.08	0.04	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA
17-Jun	0.45	0.42	0.37	0.33	0.30	0.26	0.22	0.18	0.14	0.11	0.08	0.04	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA
16-Jun	0.42	0.37	0.33	0.30	0.26	0.22	0.18	0.14	0.11	0.08	0.04	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA

fall

During the fall season, we partition adult Chinook counts into bright adults, tule adults, and tule stubbies based on a visual assessment of the number of fish of each class passing the dam during two hours of the day. These visual assignments are subject to error and are a tool for inseason forecasting but not post-season run reconstruction. The predictions below are based on these visual assesments.

Tule

The cumulative fall season Tule adult Chinook passage at Bonneville Dam through September 01, 2025 is 31,209. The 10-year (2015–2024) average proportion of the count that has occurred at Bonneville Dam through September 01 is 39.7%. Based on the cumulative counts to date and this proportion, the expected total fall (Aug 1–Oct 30) season dam count would be 78,621 (95% prediction interval = 38,550 – 337,427 and 50% prediction interval = 56,160 – 121,301) adult Chinook.

Current year

Daily adult chinook salmon counts, flow, and temperature measurements taken at Bonneville Dam.

Percent complete

Percent of the run complete by date in 2010–2024. Lower and upper hinges correspond to the first and third quartiles (the 25th and 75th percentiles).The upper whisker extends from the hinge to the largest value no further than 1.5 * IQR from the hinge (where IQR is the inter-quartile range, or distance between the first and third quartiles). The lower whisker extends from the hinge to the smallest value at most 1.5 * IQR of the hinge. Data beyond the end of the whiskers are called "outlying" points and are plotted individually.

Prediction error

Mean absolute percent error (over 15 year retrospectiv) of predictions based on cumulative counts and 10-year average run timing, by day of year.

Run size predictions

Prediction table

Predictions of the fall season (Mar 1–Jun 15) total adult Chinook salmon count with prediction intervals (50% and 95%) and the mean absolute percent error (MAPE) of predictions made with counts through September 01 in a 15-year retrospective assesment.

Model	Pred	Lo 951	Lo 501	Hi 501	Hi 951	MAPE
DLM	120,182	52,669	90,478	159,639	274,239	40%
ARIMA	118,071	48,052	86,508	161,464	294,926	38%
Joint_Lik	114,210	64,041	91,531	145,416	241,038	—
10-year ave. timing	78,621	38,550	56,160	121,301	337,427	50%
1 Prediction intervals for different model types are calculated using different methods, which complicates comparison somewhat. See Methods Description for more detail.

Prediction plot

Daily predictions of total counts at Bonneville from different models.

Prediction interval plot

Daily predictions and prediction intervals (95% and 50%). Prediction intervals for different model types are calculated using different methods, so may not be directly comparable. See Methods Description for more details.

Covariate effects

Fitted coefficients, covariate values, and effects (coefficient * covariate) for the DLM and ARIMA models. Covariates are the log of the jack returns in the previous years, the log of the cumulative adult counts to date, and an interaction between the cumulative counts and a moving average of river discharge.

Model1	coef				covar			effect
	intercept	log lag jack	log cum cnt	cnt by flow	log lag jack	log cum cnt	cnt by flow	log lag jack	log cum cnt	cnt by flow
DLM	−0.56	0.96	0.00	0.31	1.78	0.87	−0.52	1.71	0.00	−0.16
ARIMA	3.85	0.41	0.09	0.06	1.78	0.91	−0.64	0.73	0.08	−0.04
1 The response and the covariates are z-scored before fitting the DLM, but the response is not standardized for the ARIMA model

Fitted coefficient, covariate value, and effect (coefficient * covariate) for the log transformed and z-scaled moving average of river discharge in the linear predictor of the proportion of the run that is complete within the joint-likelihood model.

Coefficient	Covariate	Effect
−0.21	−0.76	0.16

Methods description

DLM

This is a penalized dynamic linear model fit with the Sibregresr package. The coefficients are the:

1. log-transformed total count of jacks at Bonneville Dam in the previous year,
2. log-transformed cumulative adult count at Bonneville Dam in the current year,
3. and interaction between an exponential moving average of river discharge and the cumulative adult count.

The prediction interval is based on the standard deviation (in log-space) of forecasts from a 15-year retrospective. In other words, the root mean square error of the forecast error in log space from a 15-year retrospective is used as the standard deviation in a lognormal prediction interval.

ARIMA

This is an ensemble of ARIMA models fit with the SalmonForecasting package (see README at the linked page for details). The covariates are the same as those described above for the DLM. Prediction intervals are the weighted average of the prediction intervals provided by the forecast::forecast() function in R.

Joint likelihood

This is a version of a model that has been used for this purpose of in-season forecasting for several years. The proportion of the run that is complete on a given day is modeled with autoregressive (order 1) errors and an effect of the river discharge covariate. The pre-season forecast is generated using an age-specific sibling regression. I have not yet implemented a retrospective assessment of performance because, in this version, the pre-season forecasts and prediction uncertainty need to be provided, and I have not pulled in the past 15 years’ forecasts.

10 year average run timing

This method takes the 10-year average of the proportion of the run that was complete on a given day and uses it to expand the cumulative counts to date. Performance and prediction intervals are based on a 15-year retrospective as described above for the DLM but assuming a normal prediction distribution for the proportion complete in logit space.

Average timing info

10-year average

Prediction

Date	Daily counts	Cumulative count	10 Days Early	9 Days Early	8 Days Early	7 Days Early	6 Days Early	5 Days Early	4 Days Early	3 Days Early	2 Days Early	1 Days Early	10yr Average	1 Days Late	2 Days Late	3 Days Late	4 Days Late	5 Days Late	6 Days Late	7 Days Late	8 Days Late	9 Days Late	10 Days Late
01-Sep	3,433	31,209	39,781	41,821	43,746	46,288	48,644	52,343	57,213	61,194	66,971	71,858	78,621	90,724	106,791	132,814	159,552	197,688	249,340	322,398	382,321	444,769	540,435
31-Aug	4,042	27,775	37,220	38,934	41,196	43,292	46,585	50,919	54,462	59,603	63,952	69,971	80,742	95,042	118,202	141,998	175,939	221,909	286,928	340,259	395,837	480,978	570,328
30-Aug	4,632	23,733	33,268	35,201	36,992	39,805	43,509	46,536	50,929	54,645	59,789	68,992	81,211	101,001	121,333	150,335	189,615	245,172	290,742	338,232	410,982	487,329	592,447
29-Aug	4,790	19,101	28,331	29,772	32,037	35,017	37,454	40,990	43,980	48,120	55,527	65,361	81,289	97,653	120,994	152,608	197,323	233,999	272,220	330,772	392,218	476,821	591,993
28-Aug	2,617	14,311	22,306	24,002	26,236	28,061	30,710	32,951	36,052	41,602	48,970	60,903	73,164	90,652	114,337	147,839	175,317	203,953	247,822	293,859	357,245	443,534	572,937
27-Aug	683	11,694	19,613	21,437	22,929	25,094	26,925	29,459	33,994	40,014	49,765	59,783	74,072	93,426	120,800	143,253	166,652	202,498	240,115	291,908	362,416	468,152	594,983
26-Aug	756	11,011	20,186	21,590	23,629	25,353	27,739	32,009	37,678	46,859	56,293	69,748	87,972	113,748	134,890	156,923	190,676	226,097	274,867	341,259	440,822	560,248	745,697
25-Aug	1,799	10,255	20,107	22,006	23,611	25,833	29,810	35,090	43,640	52,426	64,956	81,929	105,934	125,624	146,143	177,577	210,565	255,984	317,815	410,538	521,760	694,468	824,858
24-Aug	2,954	8,456	18,146	19,470	21,302	24,582	28,935	35,986	43,231	53,563	67,559	87,354	103,590	120,510	146,431	173,633	211,086	262,072	338,533	430,247	572,663	680,183	794,598
23-Aug	2,039	5,502	12,668	13,860	15,994	18,826	23,414	28,128	34,851	43,957	56,836	67,400	78,410	95,275	112,974	137,342	170,516	220,265	279,939	372,601	442,558	517,002	632,432
22-Aug	1,007	3,463	8,724	10,067	11,850	14,738	17,704	21,936	27,668	35,774	42,424	49,353	59,968	71,109	86,447	107,327	138,641	176,201	234,525	278,558	325,415	398,069	474,733
21-Aug	380	2,456	7,141	8,405	10,453	12,558	15,559	19,625	25,375	30,091	35,006	42,536	50,438	61,317	76,128	98,339	124,980	166,350	197,583	230,819	282,353	336,731	381,543
20-Aug	747	2,077	7,106	8,838	10,617	13,155	16,592	21,453	25,441	29,596	35,962	42,642	51,841	64,362	83,140	105,664	140,640	167,046	195,145	238,715	284,688	322,574	386,398
19-Aug	442	1,330	5,660	6,800	8,425	10,627	13,740	16,294	18,955	23,033	27,311	33,202	41,222	53,249	67,675	90,076	106,988	124,985	152,890	182,335	206,600	247,477	287,378
18-Aug	210	888	4,538	5,623	7,092	9,170	10,874	12,650	15,371	18,227	22,158	27,510	35,537	45,164	60,114	71,401	83,411	102,034	121,685	137,879	165,159	191,788	228,633
17-Aug	56	678	4,292	5,413	7,000	8,301	9,656	11,733	13,913	16,914	21,000	27,127	34,476	45,887	54,503	63,671	77,887	92,887	105,248	126,072	146,399	174,524	204,485
16-Aug	24	622	4,967	6,422	7,616	8,860	10,765	12,765	15,518	19,267	24,888	31,630	42,100	50,005	58,416	71,459	85,221	96,562	115,667	134,317	160,120	187,609	226,038
15-Aug	138	598	6,174	7,322	8,517	10,350	12,272	14,919	18,523	23,927	30,409	40,475	48,074	56,161	68,700	81,931	92,834	111,202	129,131	153,939	180,366	217,312	269,823
14-Aug	36	460	5,636	6,557	7,967	9,447	11,485	14,259	18,419	23,408	31,157	37,007	43,232	52,884	63,069	71,462	85,601	99,403	118,499	138,842	167,283	207,705	273,547
13-Aug	74	424	6,042	7,341	8,705	10,583	13,139	16,972	21,570	28,710	34,100	39,836	48,730	58,115	65,849	78,878	91,595	109,192	127,937	154,144	191,392	252,062	333,746
12-Aug	146	350	6,065	7,192	8,743	10,855	14,022	17,820	23,719	28,172	32,911	40,259	48,012	54,402	65,166	75,673	90,210	105,697	127,348	158,120	208,244	275,728	455,222
11-Aug	99	204	4,188	5,091	6,321	8,165	10,376	13,811	16,404	19,164	23,442	27,957	31,678	37,945	44,063	52,528	61,546	74,153	92,071	121,258	160,553	265,070	429,691
10-Aug	37	105	2,632	3,268	4,221	5,365	7,141	8,481	9,908	12,120	14,454	16,378	19,618	22,781	27,158	31,820	38,338	47,602	62,691	83,007	137,044	222,154	NA
09-Aug	25	69	2,134	2,756	3,503	4,663	5,538	6,470	7,914	9,438	10,694	12,810	14,876	17,734	20,778	25,034	31,084	40,937	54,203	89,489	145,066	NA	NA
08-Aug	23	43	1,737	2,208	2,939	3,491	4,078	4,988	5,949	6,741	8,075	9,377	11,178	13,097	15,780	19,593	25,803	34,165	56,406	91,437	NA	NA	NA
07-Aug	7	21	1,049	1,397	1,659	1,938	2,371	2,828	3,204	3,838	4,457	5,313	6,225	7,500	9,312	12,264	16,239	26,810	43,459	NA	NA	NA	NA
06-Aug	6	13	899	1,068	1,247	1,526	1,820	2,062	2,470	2,868	3,419	4,006	4,826	5,993	7,892	10,450	17,252	27,967	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA
05-Aug	0	7	567	663	811	967	1,096	1,312	1,524	1,817	2,129	2,565	3,185	4,194	5,553	9,169	14,863	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA
04-Aug	0	7	663	811	967	1,096	1,312	1,524	1,817	2,129	2,565	3,185	4,194	5,553	9,169	14,863	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA
03-Aug	0	7	811	967	1,096	1,312	1,524	1,817	2,129	2,565	3,185	4,194	5,553	9,169	14,863	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA
02-Aug	0	7	967	1,096	1,312	1,524	1,817	2,129	2,565	3,185	4,194	5,553	9,169	14,863	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA
01-Aug	7	7	1,096	1,312	1,524	1,817	2,129	2,565	3,185	4,194	5,553	9,169	14,863	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA

Proportion complete

Date	10 Days Early	9 Days Early	8 Days Early	7 Days Early	6 Days Early	5 Days Early	4 Days Early	3 Days Early	2 Days Early	1 Days Early	10yr Average	1 Days Late	2 Days Late	3 Days Late	4 Days Late	5 Days Late	6 Days Late	7 Days Late	8 Days Late	9 Days Late	10 Days Late
30-Nov	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00
29-Nov	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00
28-Nov	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00
27-Nov	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00
26-Nov	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00
25-Nov	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00
24-Nov	NA	NA	NA	NA	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00
23-Nov	NA	NA	NA	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00
22-Nov	NA	NA	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00
21-Nov	NA	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00
20-Nov	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00
19-Nov	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00
18-Nov	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00
17-Nov	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00
16-Nov	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00
15-Nov	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00
14-Nov	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00
13-Nov	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00
12-Nov	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00
11-Nov	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00
10-Nov	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00
09-Nov	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00
08-Nov	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00
07-Nov	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00
06-Nov	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00
05-Nov	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00
04-Nov	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00
03-Nov	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00
02-Nov	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00
01-Nov	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00
31-Oct	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00
30-Oct	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00
29-Oct	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00
28-Oct	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00
27-Oct	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00
26-Oct	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00
25-Oct	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00
24-Oct	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00
23-Oct	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00
22-Oct	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00
21-Oct	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00
20-Oct	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00
19-Oct	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00
18-Oct	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00
17-Oct	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00
16-Oct	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00
15-Oct	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00
14-Oct	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00
13-Oct	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00
12-Oct	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00
11-Oct	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00
10-Oct	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00
09-Oct	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	0.99
08-Oct	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	0.99	0.99
07-Oct	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	0.99	0.99	0.99
06-Oct	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99
05-Oct	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.98
04-Oct	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.98	0.98
03-Oct	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.98	0.98	0.98
02-Oct	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.98	0.98	0.98	0.97
01-Oct	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.98	0.98	0.98	0.97	0.96
30-Sep	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.98	0.98	0.98	0.97	0.96	0.96
29-Sep	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.98	0.98	0.98	0.97	0.96	0.96	0.95
28-Sep	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.98	0.98	0.98	0.97	0.96	0.96	0.95	0.94
27-Sep	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.98	0.98	0.98	0.97	0.96	0.96	0.95	0.94	0.92
26-Sep	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.98	0.98	0.98	0.97	0.96	0.96	0.95	0.94	0.92	0.91
25-Sep	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.98	0.98	0.98	0.97	0.96	0.96	0.95	0.94	0.92	0.91	0.89
24-Sep	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.98	0.98	0.98	0.97	0.96	0.96	0.95	0.94	0.92	0.91	0.89	0.87
23-Sep	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.98	0.98	0.98	0.97	0.96	0.96	0.95	0.94	0.92	0.91	0.89	0.87	0.85
22-Sep	1.00	1.00	1.00	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.98	0.98	0.98	0.97	0.96	0.96	0.95	0.94	0.92	0.91	0.89	0.87	0.85	0.82
21-Sep	1.00	1.00	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.98	0.98	0.98	0.97	0.96	0.96	0.95	0.94	0.92	0.91	0.89	0.87	0.85	0.82	0.78
20-Sep	1.00	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.98	0.98	0.98	0.97	0.96	0.96	0.95	0.94	0.92	0.91	0.89	0.87	0.85	0.82	0.78	0.75
19-Sep	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.98	0.98	0.98	0.97	0.96	0.96	0.95	0.94	0.92	0.91	0.89	0.87	0.85	0.82	0.78	0.75	0.71
18-Sep	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.98	0.98	0.98	0.97	0.96	0.96	0.95	0.94	0.92	0.91	0.89	0.87	0.85	0.82	0.78	0.75	0.71	0.67
17-Sep	0.99	0.99	0.98	0.98	0.98	0.97	0.96	0.96	0.95	0.94	0.92	0.91	0.89	0.87	0.85	0.82	0.78	0.75	0.71	0.67	0.64
16-Sep	0.99	0.98	0.98	0.98	0.97	0.96	0.96	0.95	0.94	0.92	0.91	0.89	0.87	0.85	0.82	0.78	0.75	0.71	0.67	0.64	0.60
15-Sep	0.98	0.98	0.98	0.97	0.96	0.96	0.95	0.94	0.92	0.91	0.89	0.87	0.85	0.82	0.78	0.75	0.71	0.67	0.64	0.60	0.55
14-Sep	0.98	0.98	0.97	0.96	0.96	0.95	0.94	0.92	0.91	0.89	0.87	0.85	0.82	0.78	0.75	0.71	0.67	0.64	0.60	0.55	0.51
13-Sep	0.98	0.97	0.96	0.96	0.95	0.94	0.92	0.91	0.89	0.87	0.85	0.82	0.78	0.75	0.71	0.67	0.64	0.60	0.55	0.51	0.47
12-Sep	0.97	0.96	0.96	0.95	0.94	0.92	0.91	0.89	0.87	0.85	0.82	0.78	0.75	0.71	0.67	0.64	0.60	0.55	0.51	0.47	0.43
11-Sep	0.96	0.96	0.95	0.94	0.92	0.91	0.89	0.87	0.85	0.82	0.78	0.75	0.71	0.67	0.64	0.60	0.55	0.51	0.47	0.43	0.40
10-Sep	0.96	0.95	0.94	0.92	0.91	0.89	0.87	0.85	0.82	0.78	0.75	0.71	0.67	0.64	0.60	0.55	0.51	0.47	0.43	0.40	0.34
09-Sep	0.95	0.94	0.92	0.91	0.89	0.87	0.85	0.82	0.78	0.75	0.71	0.67	0.64	0.60	0.55	0.51	0.47	0.43	0.40	0.34	0.29
08-Sep	0.94	0.92	0.91	0.89	0.87	0.85	0.82	0.78	0.75	0.71	0.67	0.64	0.60	0.55	0.51	0.47	0.43	0.40	0.34	0.29	0.23
07-Sep	0.92	0.91	0.89	0.87	0.85	0.82	0.78	0.75	0.71	0.67	0.64	0.60	0.55	0.51	0.47	0.43	0.40	0.34	0.29	0.23	0.20
06-Sep	0.91	0.89	0.87	0.85	0.82	0.78	0.75	0.71	0.67	0.64	0.60	0.55	0.51	0.47	0.43	0.40	0.34	0.29	0.23	0.20	0.16
05-Sep	0.89	0.87	0.85	0.82	0.78	0.75	0.71	0.67	0.64	0.60	0.55	0.51	0.47	0.43	0.40	0.34	0.29	0.23	0.20	0.16	0.13
04-Sep	0.87	0.85	0.82	0.78	0.75	0.71	0.67	0.64	0.60	0.55	0.51	0.47	0.43	0.40	0.34	0.29	0.23	0.20	0.16	0.13	0.10
03-Sep	0.85	0.82	0.78	0.75	0.71	0.67	0.64	0.60	0.55	0.51	0.47	0.43	0.40	0.34	0.29	0.23	0.20	0.16	0.13	0.10	0.08
02-Sep	0.82	0.78	0.75	0.71	0.67	0.64	0.60	0.55	0.51	0.47	0.43	0.40	0.34	0.29	0.23	0.20	0.16	0.13	0.10	0.08	0.07
01-Sep	0.78	0.75	0.71	0.67	0.64	0.60	0.55	0.51	0.47	0.43	0.40	0.34	0.29	0.23	0.20	0.16	0.13	0.10	0.08	0.07	0.06
31-Aug	0.75	0.71	0.67	0.64	0.60	0.55	0.51	0.47	0.43	0.40	0.34	0.29	0.23	0.20	0.16	0.13	0.10	0.08	0.07	0.06	0.05
30-Aug	0.71	0.67	0.64	0.60	0.55	0.51	0.47	0.43	0.40	0.34	0.29	0.23	0.20	0.16	0.13	0.10	0.08	0.07	0.06	0.05	0.04
29-Aug	0.67	0.64	0.60	0.55	0.51	0.47	0.43	0.40	0.34	0.29	0.23	0.20	0.16	0.13	0.10	0.08	0.07	0.06	0.05	0.04	0.03
28-Aug	0.64	0.60	0.55	0.51	0.47	0.43	0.40	0.34	0.29	0.23	0.20	0.16	0.13	0.10	0.08	0.07	0.06	0.05	0.04	0.03	0.02
27-Aug	0.60	0.55	0.51	0.47	0.43	0.40	0.34	0.29	0.23	0.20	0.16	0.13	0.10	0.08	0.07	0.06	0.05	0.04	0.03	0.02	0.02
26-Aug	0.55	0.51	0.47	0.43	0.40	0.34	0.29	0.23	0.20	0.16	0.13	0.10	0.08	0.07	0.06	0.05	0.04	0.03	0.02	0.02	0.01
25-Aug	0.51	0.47	0.43	0.40	0.34	0.29	0.23	0.20	0.16	0.13	0.10	0.08	0.07	0.06	0.05	0.04	0.03	0.02	0.02	0.01	0.01
24-Aug	0.47	0.43	0.40	0.34	0.29	0.23	0.20	0.16	0.13	0.10	0.08	0.07	0.06	0.05	0.04	0.03	0.02	0.02	0.01	0.01	0.01
23-Aug	0.43	0.40	0.34	0.29	0.23	0.20	0.16	0.13	0.10	0.08	0.07	0.06	0.05	0.04	0.03	0.02	0.02	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01
22-Aug	0.40	0.34	0.29	0.23	0.20	0.16	0.13	0.10	0.08	0.07	0.06	0.05	0.04	0.03	0.02	0.02	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01
21-Aug	0.34	0.29	0.23	0.20	0.16	0.13	0.10	0.08	0.07	0.06	0.05	0.04	0.03	0.02	0.02	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01
20-Aug	0.29	0.23	0.20	0.16	0.13	0.10	0.08	0.07	0.06	0.05	0.04	0.03	0.02	0.02	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01
19-Aug	0.23	0.20	0.16	0.13	0.10	0.08	0.07	0.06	0.05	0.04	0.03	0.02	0.02	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00
18-Aug	0.20	0.16	0.13	0.10	0.08	0.07	0.06	0.05	0.04	0.03	0.02	0.02	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00
17-Aug	0.16	0.13	0.10	0.08	0.07	0.06	0.05	0.04	0.03	0.02	0.02	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00
16-Aug	0.13	0.10	0.08	0.07	0.06	0.05	0.04	0.03	0.02	0.02	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
15-Aug	0.10	0.08	0.07	0.06	0.05	0.04	0.03	0.02	0.02	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
14-Aug	0.08	0.07	0.06	0.05	0.04	0.03	0.02	0.02	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
13-Aug	0.07	0.06	0.05	0.04	0.03	0.02	0.02	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
12-Aug	0.06	0.05	0.04	0.03	0.02	0.02	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
11-Aug	0.05	0.04	0.03	0.02	0.02	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
10-Aug	0.04	0.03	0.02	0.02	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	NA
09-Aug	0.03	0.02	0.02	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	NA	NA
08-Aug	0.02	0.02	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	NA	NA	NA
07-Aug	0.02	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	NA	NA	NA	NA
06-Aug	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA
05-Aug	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA
04-Aug	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA
03-Aug	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA
02-Aug	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA
01-Aug	0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA

5-year average

Prediction

Date	Daily counts	Cumulative count	10 Days Early	9 Days Early	8 Days Early	7 Days Early	6 Days Early	5 Days Early	4 Days Early	3 Days Early	2 Days Early	1 Days Early	5yr Average	1 Days Late	2 Days Late	3 Days Late	4 Days Late	5 Days Late	6 Days Late	7 Days Late	8 Days Late	9 Days Late	10 Days Late
01-Sep	3,433	31,209	35,877	36,918	38,151	39,837	41,695	44,373	46,723	49,197	52,856	55,772	61,050	71,469	86,234	111,622	135,501	165,579	202,470	258,524	310,939	355,476	434,819
31-Aug	4,042	27,775	32,857	33,954	35,454	37,108	39,491	41,583	43,785	47,041	49,636	54,334	63,607	76,747	99,341	120,594	147,362	180,194	230,082	276,730	316,368	386,981	455,520
30-Aug	4,632	23,733	29,013	30,295	31,708	33,744	35,531	37,413	40,195	42,413	46,426	54,350	65,578	84,884	103,044	125,917	153,971	196,598	236,458	270,327	330,665	389,229	455,730
29-Aug	4,790	19,101	24,382	25,519	27,158	28,597	30,111	32,350	34,135	37,366	43,743	52,779	68,318	82,933	101,342	123,921	158,229	190,309	217,568	266,130	313,264	366,786	465,774
28-Aug	2,617	14,311	19,120	20,348	21,425	22,560	24,238	25,575	27,995	32,773	39,543	51,185	62,135	75,928	92,844	118,548	142,584	163,007	199,390	234,704	274,804	348,968	478,307
27-Aug	683	11,694	16,626	17,507	18,434	19,805	20,897	22,875	26,779	32,311	41,824	50,771	62,041	75,864	96,867	116,507	133,195	162,924	191,779	224,546	285,145	390,829	528,402
26-Aug	756	11,011	16,485	17,358	18,649	19,677	21,540	25,216	30,425	39,382	47,807	58,419	71,435	91,212	109,705	125,419	153,412	180,583	211,437	268,499	368,013	497,555	790,164
25-Aug	1,799	10,255	16,165	17,367	18,326	20,060	23,484	28,335	36,677	44,523	54,406	66,528	84,946	102,169	116,803	142,873	168,178	196,911	250,053	342,731	463,373	735,881	955,842
24-Aug	2,954	8,456	14,321	15,111	16,542	19,365	23,365	30,244	36,714	44,864	54,859	70,047	84,249	96,316	117,814	138,680	162,374	206,196	282,618	382,101	606,812	788,193	932,414
23-Aug	2,039	5,502	9,832	10,763	12,600	15,202	19,678	23,888	29,190	35,694	45,576	54,816	62,668	76,655	90,232	105,648	134,160	183,885	248,612	394,820	512,835	606,671	762,639
22-Aug	1,007	3,463	6,774	7,930	9,569	12,386	15,036	18,373	22,467	28,687	34,503	39,445	48,249	56,794	66,498	84,444	115,742	156,483	248,510	322,792	381,855	480,025	572,597
21-Aug	380	2,456	5,625	6,787	8,785	10,665	13,032	15,936	20,348	24,473	27,978	34,223	40,285	47,167	59,897	82,096	110,995	176,270	228,958	270,852	340,485	406,147	444,468
20-Aug	747	2,077	5,738	7,428	9,017	11,018	13,473	17,203	20,691	23,654	28,934	34,058	39,877	50,640	69,408	93,840	149,027	193,572	228,991	287,862	343,376	375,774	441,615
19-Aug	442	1,330	4,757	5,775	7,057	8,629	11,018	13,252	15,150	18,531	21,813	25,540	32,433	44,454	60,102	95,447	123,977	146,662	184,367	219,922	240,673	282,842	343,356
18-Aug	210	888	3,854	4,709	5,759	7,353	8,844	10,111	12,367	14,558	17,045	21,645	29,667	40,110	63,699	82,739	97,878	123,041	146,770	160,618	188,760	229,146	303,389
17-Aug	56	678	3,595	4,396	5,613	6,751	7,718	9,440	11,112	13,011	16,522	22,646	30,618	48,624	63,158	74,714	93,922	112,035	122,606	144,088	174,916	231,588	275,229
16-Aug	24	622	4,033	5,150	6,194	7,081	8,661	10,195	11,937	15,159	20,777	28,091	44,611	57,945	68,548	86,171	102,789	112,487	132,196	160,480	212,475	252,514	284,782
15-Aug	138	598	4,951	5,955	6,807	8,327	9,802	11,476	14,574	19,975	27,006	42,889	55,708	65,901	82,844	98,820	108,144	127,093	154,284	204,272	242,765	273,787	336,822
14-Aug	36	460	4,584	5,240	6,410	7,545	8,834	11,218	15,376	20,789	33,015	42,883	50,730	63,772	76,070	83,248	97,834	118,765	157,245	186,876	210,756	259,279	323,957
13-Aug	74	424	4,829	5,906	6,953	8,140	10,337	14,169	19,156	30,422	39,515	46,745	58,763	70,095	76,709	90,150	109,437	144,895	172,199	194,203	238,915	298,512	410,056
12-Aug	146	350	4,880	5,744	6,725	8,540	11,706	15,826	25,133	32,646	38,619	48,548	57,910	63,374	74,478	90,413	119,706	142,264	160,443	197,382	246,620	338,773	586,719
11-Aug	99	204	3,345	3,916	4,973	6,816	9,215	14,635	19,009	22,487	28,269	33,720	36,902	43,368	52,646	69,703	82,838	93,424	114,933	143,603	197,263	341,639	509,844
10-Aug	37	105	2,025	2,571	3,524	4,764	7,566	9,828	11,626	14,615	17,434	19,079	22,421	27,218	36,037	42,828	48,301	59,421	74,244	101,987	176,630	263,594	NA
09-Aug	25	69	1,679	2,301	3,111	4,941	6,418	7,592	9,544	11,384	12,458	14,641	17,774	23,532	27,967	31,540	38,802	48,481	66,597	115,339	172,126	NA	NA
08-Aug	23	43	1,450	1,961	3,114	4,045	4,785	6,016	7,176	7,853	9,229	11,203	14,833	17,628	19,880	24,458	30,558	41,977	72,700	108,494	NA	NA	NA
07-Aug	7	21	932	1,480	1,923	2,274	2,859	3,411	3,732	4,386	5,325	7,050	8,378	9,449	11,624	14,524	19,951	34,554	51,566	NA	NA	NA	NA
06-Aug	6	13	953	1,237	1,464	1,840	2,195	2,402	2,823	3,427	4,537	5,392	6,081	7,481	9,347	12,839	22,236	33,184	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA
05-Aug	0	7	658	778	978	1,166	1,276	1,500	1,821	2,411	2,865	3,231	3,975	4,967	6,823	11,817	17,635	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA
04-Aug	0	7	778	978	1,166	1,276	1,500	1,821	2,411	2,865	3,231	3,975	4,967	6,823	11,817	17,635	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA
03-Aug	0	7	978	1,166	1,276	1,500	1,821	2,411	2,865	3,231	3,975	4,967	6,823	11,817	17,635	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA
02-Aug	0	7	1,166	1,276	1,500	1,821	2,411	2,865	3,231	3,975	4,967	6,823	11,817	17,635	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA
01-Aug	7	7	1,276	1,500	1,821	2,411	2,865	3,231	3,975	4,967	6,823	11,817	17,635	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA

Proportion complete

Date	10 Days Early	9 Days Early	8 Days Early	7 Days Early	6 Days Early	5 Days Early	4 Days Early	3 Days Early	2 Days Early	1 Days Early	5yr Average	1 Days Late	2 Days Late	3 Days Late	4 Days Late	5 Days Late	6 Days Late	7 Days Late	8 Days Late	9 Days Late	10 Days Late
30-Nov	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00
29-Nov	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00
28-Nov	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00
27-Nov	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00
26-Nov	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00
25-Nov	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00
24-Nov	NA	NA	NA	NA	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00
23-Nov	NA	NA	NA	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00
22-Nov	NA	NA	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00
21-Nov	NA	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00
20-Nov	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00
19-Nov	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00
18-Nov	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00
17-Nov	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00
16-Nov	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00
15-Nov	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00
14-Nov	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00
13-Nov	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00
12-Nov	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00
11-Nov	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00
10-Nov	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00
09-Nov	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00
08-Nov	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00
07-Nov	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00
06-Nov	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00
05-Nov	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00
04-Nov	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00
03-Nov	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00
02-Nov	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00
01-Nov	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00
31-Oct	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00
30-Oct	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00
29-Oct	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00
28-Oct	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00
27-Oct	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00
26-Oct	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00
25-Oct	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00
24-Oct	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00
23-Oct	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00
22-Oct	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00
21-Oct	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00
20-Oct	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00
19-Oct	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00
18-Oct	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00
17-Oct	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00
16-Oct	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00
15-Oct	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00
14-Oct	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00
13-Oct	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00
12-Oct	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00
11-Oct	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00
10-Oct	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00
09-Oct	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00
08-Oct	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00
07-Oct	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	0.99
06-Oct	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	0.99	0.99
05-Oct	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	0.99	0.99	0.99
04-Oct	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99
03-Oct	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99
02-Oct	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99
01-Oct	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.98
30-Sep	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.98	0.98
29-Sep	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.98	0.98	0.98
28-Sep	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.98	0.98	0.98	0.97
27-Sep	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.98	0.98	0.98	0.97	0.96
26-Sep	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.98	0.98	0.98	0.97	0.96	0.95
25-Sep	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.98	0.98	0.98	0.97	0.96	0.95	0.94
24-Sep	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.98	0.98	0.98	0.97	0.96	0.95	0.94	0.93
23-Sep	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.98	0.98	0.98	0.97	0.96	0.95	0.94	0.93	0.91
22-Sep	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.98	0.98	0.98	0.97	0.96	0.95	0.94	0.93	0.91	0.90
21-Sep	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.98	0.98	0.98	0.97	0.96	0.95	0.94	0.93	0.91	0.90	0.87
20-Sep	1.00	1.00	1.00	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.98	0.98	0.98	0.97	0.96	0.95	0.94	0.93	0.91	0.90	0.87	0.85
19-Sep	1.00	1.00	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.98	0.98	0.98	0.97	0.96	0.95	0.94	0.93	0.91	0.90	0.87	0.85	0.82
18-Sep	1.00	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.98	0.98	0.98	0.97	0.96	0.95	0.94	0.93	0.91	0.90	0.87	0.85	0.82	0.78
17-Sep	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.98	0.98	0.98	0.97	0.96	0.95	0.94	0.93	0.91	0.90	0.87	0.85	0.82	0.78	0.75
16-Sep	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.98	0.98	0.98	0.97	0.96	0.95	0.94	0.93	0.91	0.90	0.87	0.85	0.82	0.78	0.75	0.70
15-Sep	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.98	0.98	0.98	0.97	0.96	0.95	0.94	0.93	0.91	0.90	0.87	0.85	0.82	0.78	0.75	0.70	0.67
14-Sep	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.98	0.98	0.98	0.97	0.96	0.95	0.94	0.93	0.91	0.90	0.87	0.85	0.82	0.78	0.75	0.70	0.67	0.63
13-Sep	0.99	0.99	0.98	0.98	0.98	0.97	0.96	0.95	0.94	0.93	0.91	0.90	0.87	0.85	0.82	0.78	0.75	0.70	0.67	0.63	0.59
12-Sep	0.99	0.98	0.98	0.98	0.97	0.96	0.95	0.94	0.93	0.91	0.90	0.87	0.85	0.82	0.78	0.75	0.70	0.67	0.63	0.59	0.56
11-Sep	0.98	0.98	0.98	0.97	0.96	0.95	0.94	0.93	0.91	0.90	0.87	0.85	0.82	0.78	0.75	0.70	0.67	0.63	0.59	0.56	0.51
10-Sep	0.98	0.98	0.97	0.96	0.95	0.94	0.93	0.91	0.90	0.87	0.85	0.82	0.78	0.75	0.70	0.67	0.63	0.59	0.56	0.51	0.44
09-Sep	0.98	0.97	0.96	0.95	0.94	0.93	0.91	0.90	0.87	0.85	0.82	0.78	0.75	0.70	0.67	0.63	0.59	0.56	0.51	0.44	0.36
08-Sep	0.97	0.96	0.95	0.94	0.93	0.91	0.90	0.87	0.85	0.82	0.78	0.75	0.70	0.67	0.63	0.59	0.56	0.51	0.44	0.36	0.28
07-Sep	0.96	0.95	0.94	0.93	0.91	0.90	0.87	0.85	0.82	0.78	0.75	0.70	0.67	0.63	0.59	0.56	0.51	0.44	0.36	0.28	0.23
06-Sep	0.95	0.94	0.93	0.91	0.90	0.87	0.85	0.82	0.78	0.75	0.70	0.67	0.63	0.59	0.56	0.51	0.44	0.36	0.28	0.23	0.19
05-Sep	0.94	0.93	0.91	0.90	0.87	0.85	0.82	0.78	0.75	0.70	0.67	0.63	0.59	0.56	0.51	0.44	0.36	0.28	0.23	0.19	0.15
04-Sep	0.93	0.91	0.90	0.87	0.85	0.82	0.78	0.75	0.70	0.67	0.63	0.59	0.56	0.51	0.44	0.36	0.28	0.23	0.19	0.15	0.12
03-Sep	0.91	0.90	0.87	0.85	0.82	0.78	0.75	0.70	0.67	0.63	0.59	0.56	0.51	0.44	0.36	0.28	0.23	0.19	0.15	0.12	0.10
02-Sep	0.90	0.87	0.85	0.82	0.78	0.75	0.70	0.67	0.63	0.59	0.56	0.51	0.44	0.36	0.28	0.23	0.19	0.15	0.12	0.10	0.09
01-Sep	0.87	0.85	0.82	0.78	0.75	0.70	0.67	0.63	0.59	0.56	0.51	0.44	0.36	0.28	0.23	0.19	0.15	0.12	0.10	0.09	0.07
31-Aug	0.85	0.82	0.78	0.75	0.70	0.67	0.63	0.59	0.56	0.51	0.44	0.36	0.28	0.23	0.19	0.15	0.12	0.10	0.09	0.07	0.06
30-Aug	0.82	0.78	0.75	0.70	0.67	0.63	0.59	0.56	0.51	0.44	0.36	0.28	0.23	0.19	0.15	0.12	0.10	0.09	0.07	0.06	0.05
29-Aug	0.78	0.75	0.70	0.67	0.63	0.59	0.56	0.51	0.44	0.36	0.28	0.23	0.19	0.15	0.12	0.10	0.09	0.07	0.06	0.05	0.04
28-Aug	0.75	0.70	0.67	0.63	0.59	0.56	0.51	0.44	0.36	0.28	0.23	0.19	0.15	0.12	0.10	0.09	0.07	0.06	0.05	0.04	0.03
27-Aug	0.70	0.67	0.63	0.59	0.56	0.51	0.44	0.36	0.28	0.23	0.19	0.15	0.12	0.10	0.09	0.07	0.06	0.05	0.04	0.03	0.02
26-Aug	0.67	0.63	0.59	0.56	0.51	0.44	0.36	0.28	0.23	0.19	0.15	0.12	0.10	0.09	0.07	0.06	0.05	0.04	0.03	0.02	0.01
25-Aug	0.63	0.59	0.56	0.51	0.44	0.36	0.28	0.23	0.19	0.15	0.12	0.10	0.09	0.07	0.06	0.05	0.04	0.03	0.02	0.01	0.01
24-Aug	0.59	0.56	0.51	0.44	0.36	0.28	0.23	0.19	0.15	0.12	0.10	0.09	0.07	0.06	0.05	0.04	0.03	0.02	0.01	0.01	0.01
23-Aug	0.56	0.51	0.44	0.36	0.28	0.23	0.19	0.15	0.12	0.10	0.09	0.07	0.06	0.05	0.04	0.03	0.02	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01
22-Aug	0.51	0.44	0.36	0.28	0.23	0.19	0.15	0.12	0.10	0.09	0.07	0.06	0.05	0.04	0.03	0.02	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01
21-Aug	0.44	0.36	0.28	0.23	0.19	0.15	0.12	0.10	0.09	0.07	0.06	0.05	0.04	0.03	0.02	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01
20-Aug	0.36	0.28	0.23	0.19	0.15	0.12	0.10	0.09	0.07	0.06	0.05	0.04	0.03	0.02	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00
19-Aug	0.28	0.23	0.19	0.15	0.12	0.10	0.09	0.07	0.06	0.05	0.04	0.03	0.02	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00
18-Aug	0.23	0.19	0.15	0.12	0.10	0.09	0.07	0.06	0.05	0.04	0.03	0.02	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00
17-Aug	0.19	0.15	0.12	0.10	0.09	0.07	0.06	0.05	0.04	0.03	0.02	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
16-Aug	0.15	0.12	0.10	0.09	0.07	0.06	0.05	0.04	0.03	0.02	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
15-Aug	0.12	0.10	0.09	0.07	0.06	0.05	0.04	0.03	0.02	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
14-Aug	0.10	0.09	0.07	0.06	0.05	0.04	0.03	0.02	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
13-Aug	0.09	0.07	0.06	0.05	0.04	0.03	0.02	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
12-Aug	0.07	0.06	0.05	0.04	0.03	0.02	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
11-Aug	0.06	0.05	0.04	0.03	0.02	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
10-Aug	0.05	0.04	0.03	0.02	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	NA
09-Aug	0.04	0.03	0.02	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	NA	NA
08-Aug	0.03	0.02	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	NA	NA	NA
07-Aug	0.02	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	NA	NA	NA	NA
06-Aug	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA
05-Aug	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA
04-Aug	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA
03-Aug	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA
02-Aug	0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA
01-Aug	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA

Bright

The cumulative fall season Bright adult Chinook passage at Bonneville Dam through September 01, 2025 is 97,706. The 10-year (2015–2024) average proportion of the count that has occurred at Bonneville Dam through September 01 is 26.4%. Based on the cumulative counts to date and this proportion, the expected total fall (Aug 1–Oct 30) season dam count would be 370,480 (95% prediction interval = 210,996 – 754,474 and 50% prediction interval = 299,300 – 466,792) adult Chinook.

Current year

Daily adult chinook salmon counts, flow, and temperature measurements taken at Bonneville Dam.

Percent complete

Percent of the run complete by date in 2010–2024. Lower and upper hinges correspond to the first and third quartiles (the 25th and 75th percentiles).The upper whisker extends from the hinge to the largest value no further than 1.5 * IQR from the hinge (where IQR is the inter-quartile range, or distance between the first and third quartiles). The lower whisker extends from the hinge to the smallest value at most 1.5 * IQR of the hinge. Data beyond the end of the whiskers are called "outlying" points and are plotted individually.

Prediction error

Mean absolute percent error (over 15 year retrospectiv) of predictions based on cumulative counts and 10-year average run timing, by day of year.

Run size predictions

Prediction table

Predictions of the fall season (Mar 1–Jun 15) total adult Chinook salmon count with prediction intervals (50% and 95%) and the mean absolute percent error (MAPE) of predictions made with counts through September 01 in a 15-year retrospective assesment.

Model	Pred	Lo 951	Lo 501	Hi 501	Hi 951	MAPE
DLM	327,333	129,685	238,020	450,160	826,210	33%
ARIMA	374,812	203,443	303,607	462,923	693,146	23%
Joint_Lik	314,429	229,966	280,557	354,576	452,830	—
10-year ave. timing	370,480	210,996	299,300	466,792	754,474	29%
1 Prediction intervals for different model types are calculated using different methods, which complicates comparison somewhat. See Methods Description for more detail.

Prediction plot

Daily predictions of total counts at Bonneville from different models.

Prediction interval plot

Daily predictions and prediction intervals (95% and 50%). Prediction intervals for different model types are calculated using different methods, so may not be directly comparable. See Methods Description for more details.

Covariate effects

Fitted coefficients, covariate values, and effects (coefficient * covariate) for the DLM and ARIMA models. Covariates are the log of the jack returns in the previous years, the log of the cumulative adult counts to date, and an interaction between the cumulative counts and a moving average of river discharge.

Model1	coef				covar			effect
	intercept	log lag jack	log cum cnt	cnt by flow	log lag jack	log cum cnt	cnt by flow	log lag jack	log cum cnt	cnt by flow
DLM	−0.05	−0.09	0.29	0.03	0.63	0.49	−0.85	−0.06	0.14	−0.02
ARIMA	12.69	0.17	0.12	0.04	0.63	0.52	−0.91	0.11	0.06	−0.03
1 The response and the covariates are z-scored before fitting the DLM, but the response is not standardized for the ARIMA model

Fitted coefficient, covariate value, and effect (coefficient * covariate) for the log transformed and z-scaled moving average of river discharge in the linear predictor of the proportion of the run that is complete within the joint-likelihood model.

Coefficient	Covariate	Effect
−0.14	−0.76	0.11

Methods description

DLM

This is a penalized dynamic linear model fit with the Sibregresr package. The coefficients are the:

1. log-transformed total count of jacks at Bonneville Dam in the previous year,
2. log-transformed cumulative adult count at Bonneville Dam in the current year,
3. and interaction between an exponential moving average of river discharge and the cumulative adult count.

The prediction interval is based on the standard deviation (in log-space) of forecasts from a 15-year retrospective. In other words, the root mean square error of the forecast error in log space from a 15-year retrospective is used as the standard deviation in a lognormal prediction interval.

ARIMA

This is an ensemble of ARIMA models fit with the SalmonForecasting package (see README at the linked page for details). The covariates are the same as those described above for the DLM. Prediction intervals are the weighted average of the prediction intervals provided by the forecast::forecast() function in R.

Joint likelihood

This is a version of a model that has been used for this purpose of in-season forecasting for several years. The proportion of the run that is complete on a given day is modeled with autoregressive (order 1) errors and an effect of the river discharge covariate. The pre-season forecast is generated using an age-specific sibling regression. I have not yet implemented a retrospective assessment of performance because, in this version, the pre-season forecasts and prediction uncertainty need to be provided, and I have not pulled in the past 15 years’ forecasts.

10 year average run timing

This method takes the 10-year average of the proportion of the run that was complete on a given day and uses it to expand the cumulative counts to date. Performance and prediction intervals are based on a 15-year retrospective as described above for the DLM but assuming a normal prediction distribution for the proportion complete in logit space.

Average timing info

10-year average

Prediction

Date	Daily counts	Cumulative count	10 Days Early	9 Days Early	8 Days Early	7 Days Early	6 Days Early	5 Days Early	4 Days Early	3 Days Early	2 Days Early	1 Days Early	10yr Average	1 Days Late	2 Days Late	3 Days Late	4 Days Late	5 Days Late	6 Days Late	7 Days Late	8 Days Late	9 Days Late	10 Days Late
01-Sep	8,391	97,706	170,921	183,805	195,702	209,453	226,594	242,078	260,666	284,370	310,316	339,023	370,480	419,157	477,210	534,795	601,715	690,578	810,432	947,476	1,116,751	1,249,717	1,387,183
31-Aug	13,725	89,315	168,021	178,896	191,466	207,135	221,289	238,281	259,949	283,667	309,909	338,664	383,161	436,229	488,869	550,042	631,274	740,835	866,111	1,020,849	1,142,396	1,268,057	1,459,014
30-Aug	10,910	75,590	151,404	162,042	175,304	187,283	201,664	220,002	240,075	262,285	286,621	324,280	369,192	413,743	465,515	534,264	626,989	733,013	863,972	966,841	1,073,191	1,234,803	1,400,164
29-Aug	11,072	64,680	138,655	150,002	160,252	172,557	188,249	205,425	224,429	245,252	277,476	315,906	354,027	398,327	457,153	536,495	627,216	739,274	827,296	918,296	1,056,583	1,198,077	1,354,309
28-Aug	6,006	53,608	124,325	132,820	143,019	156,025	170,260	186,011	203,270	229,978	261,830	293,425	330,142	378,898	444,658	519,850	612,726	685,680	761,103	875,718	992,992	1,122,480	1,299,869
27-Aug	2,249	47,602	117,939	126,995	138,543	151,184	165,170	180,495	204,211	232,494	260,549	293,152	336,445	394,838	461,605	544,075	608,855	675,827	777,600	881,734	996,714	1,154,227	1,328,071
26-Aug	1,956	45,353	120,995	131,997	144,041	157,366	171,968	194,562	221,509	248,239	279,301	320,549	376,183	439,795	518,368	580,088	643,896	740,861	840,075	949,622	1,099,693	1,265,323	1,461,716
25-Aug	4,703	43,397	126,306	137,830	150,581	164,552	186,173	211,958	237,535	267,258	306,727	359,962	420,832	496,017	555,075	616,132	708,916	803,851	908,676	1,052,276	1,210,764	1,398,688	1,577,525
24-Aug	7,894	38,694	122,894	134,263	146,721	165,999	188,989	211,795	238,297	273,489	320,955	375,229	442,267	494,926	549,366	632,095	716,743	810,208	938,248	1,079,561	1,247,122	1,406,579	1,603,225
23-Aug	5,243	30,800	106,872	116,788	132,133	150,433	168,586	189,682	217,694	255,477	298,678	352,039	393,955	437,289	503,141	570,520	644,917	746,834	859,318	992,695	1,119,621	1,276,149	1,464,186
22-Aug	2,101	25,557	96,908	109,641	124,826	139,889	157,394	180,638	211,989	247,836	292,114	326,895	362,852	417,495	473,404	535,137	619,706	713,043	823,716	929,036	1,058,919	1,214,948	1,379,296
21-Aug	2,091	23,457	100,630	114,567	128,391	144,457	165,791	194,565	227,467	268,105	300,027	333,030	383,181	434,495	491,154	568,773	654,438	756,014	852,679	971,887	1,115,092	1,265,932	1,454,537
20-Aug	3,579	21,366	104,354	116,947	131,580	151,013	177,222	207,190	244,207	273,283	303,343	349,024	395,764	447,373	518,072	596,102	688,624	776,671	885,253	1,015,693	1,153,087	1,324,880	1,524,360
19-Aug	3,629	17,787	97,359	109,542	125,719	147,539	172,488	203,304	227,511	252,536	290,566	329,477	372,442	431,300	496,260	573,285	646,586	736,981	845,573	959,955	1,102,974	1,269,043	1,455,889
18-Aug	1,231	14,158	87,191	100,067	117,435	137,293	161,821	181,089	201,008	231,278	262,250	296,448	343,296	395,001	456,310	514,654	586,605	673,040	764,083	877,920	1,010,104	1,158,825	1,304,120
17-Aug	757	12,927	91,365	107,222	125,353	147,749	165,340	183,527	211,165	239,443	270,667	313,442	360,650	416,628	469,898	535,591	614,509	697,635	801,572	922,261	1,058,049	1,190,709	1,367,096
16-Aug	562	12,170	100,943	118,013	139,097	155,658	172,780	198,799	225,422	254,817	295,087	339,531	392,230	442,381	504,228	578,524	656,782	754,633	868,254	996,091	1,120,982	1,287,040	1,550,518
15-Aug	379	11,607	112,558	132,667	148,464	164,794	189,611	215,003	243,039	281,448	323,838	374,101	421,934	480,922	551,784	626,425	719,753	828,122	950,050	1,069,169	1,227,552	1,478,851	1,845,464
14-Aug	895	11,228	128,334	143,614	159,411	183,417	207,980	235,101	272,254	313,260	361,881	408,152	465,213	533,761	605,963	696,243	801,072	919,017	1,034,245	1,187,455	1,430,545	1,785,184	2,223,068
13-Aug	1,079	10,333	132,172	146,710	168,803	191,409	216,369	250,563	288,301	333,049	375,632	428,147	491,234	557,684	640,770	737,248	845,795	951,843	1,092,845	1,316,567	1,642,950	2,045,947	2,745,098
12-Aug	1,386	9,254	131,387	151,173	171,417	193,770	224,392	258,189	298,263	336,399	383,429	439,926	499,436	573,844	660,245	757,455	852,426	978,702	1,179,057	1,471,350	1,832,256	2,458,383	3,708,420
11-Aug	1,548	7,868	128,524	145,735	164,739	190,773	219,507	253,576	285,999	325,983	374,015	424,609	487,870	561,325	643,971	724,714	832,070	1,002,408	1,250,909	1,557,743	2,090,062	3,152,816	6,458,287
10-Aug	1,499	6,319	117,053	132,318	153,228	176,306	203,671	229,713	261,827	300,407	341,043	391,854	450,853	517,234	582,086	668,314	805,128	1,004,723	1,251,170	1,678,726	2,532,323	5,187,259	NA
09-Aug	1,225	4,820	100,924	116,873	134,476	155,348	175,211	199,706	229,132	260,127	298,882	343,883	394,515	443,980	509,749	614,103	766,341	954,316	1,280,430	1,931,502	3,956,525	NA	NA
08-Aug	943	3,595	87,172	100,301	115,869	130,684	148,954	170,902	194,020	222,926	256,491	294,255	331,150	380,205	458,039	571,589	711,793	955,030	1,440,643	2,951,041	NA	NA	NA
07-Aug	725	2,652	73,996	85,481	96,411	109,889	126,081	143,136	164,461	189,224	217,084	244,302	280,492	337,913	421,683	525,117	704,563	1,062,818	2,177,097	NA	NA	NA	NA
06-Aug	331	1,928	62,126	70,069	79,865	91,633	104,028	119,527	137,523	157,771	177,553	203,855	245,587	306,469	381,643	512,059	772,431	1,582,263	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA
05-Aug	210	1,597	58,045	66,160	75,908	86,176	99,015	113,923	130,697	147,084	168,872	203,443	253,877	316,151	424,187	639,878	1,310,738	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA
04-Aug	198	1,387	57,459	65,925	74,843	85,993	98,941	113,508	127,740	146,663	176,687	220,489	274,572	368,401	555,725	1,138,357	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA
03-Aug	325	1,189	56,513	64,157	73,716	84,814	97,302	109,502	125,723	151,461	189,008	235,370	315,802	476,380	975,826	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA
02-Aug	442	864	46,617	53,563	61,627	70,701	79,565	91,352	110,053	137,336	171,022	229,465	346,143	709,047	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA
01-Aug	422	422	26,154	30,092	34,523	38,852	44,607	53,739	67,061	83,510	112,047	169,021	346,226	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA

Proportion complete

Date	10 Days Early	9 Days Early	8 Days Early	7 Days Early	6 Days Early	5 Days Early	4 Days Early	3 Days Early	2 Days Early	1 Days Early	10yr Average	1 Days Late	2 Days Late	3 Days Late	4 Days Late	5 Days Late	6 Days Late	7 Days Late	8 Days Late	9 Days Late	10 Days Late
30-Nov	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00
29-Nov	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00
28-Nov	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00
27-Nov	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00
26-Nov	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00
25-Nov	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00
24-Nov	NA	NA	NA	NA	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00
23-Nov	NA	NA	NA	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00
22-Nov	NA	NA	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00
21-Nov	NA	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00
20-Nov	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00
19-Nov	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00
18-Nov	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00
17-Nov	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00
16-Nov	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00
15-Nov	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00
14-Nov	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00
13-Nov	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00
12-Nov	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00
11-Nov	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	0.99
10-Nov	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	0.99	0.99
09-Nov	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	0.99	0.99	0.99
08-Nov	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99
07-Nov	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99
06-Nov	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99
05-Nov	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99
04-Nov	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99
03-Nov	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99
02-Nov	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99
01-Nov	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99
31-Oct	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99
30-Oct	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99
29-Oct	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.98
28-Oct	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.98	0.98
27-Oct	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.98	0.98	0.98
26-Oct	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.98	0.98	0.98	0.98
25-Oct	1.00	1.00	1.00	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.98	0.98	0.98	0.98	0.98
24-Oct	1.00	1.00	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.98	0.98	0.98	0.98	0.98	0.98
23-Oct	1.00	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.98	0.98	0.98	0.98	0.98	0.98	0.97
22-Oct	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.98	0.98	0.98	0.98	0.98	0.98	0.97	0.97
21-Oct	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.98	0.98	0.98	0.98	0.98	0.98	0.97	0.97	0.97
20-Oct	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.98	0.98	0.98	0.98	0.98	0.98	0.97	0.97	0.97	0.97
19-Oct	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.98	0.98	0.98	0.98	0.98	0.98	0.97	0.97	0.97	0.97	0.96
18-Oct	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.98	0.98	0.98	0.98	0.98	0.98	0.97	0.97	0.97	0.97	0.96	0.96
17-Oct	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.98	0.98	0.98	0.98	0.98	0.98	0.97	0.97	0.97	0.97	0.96	0.96	0.95
16-Oct	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.98	0.98	0.98	0.98	0.98	0.98	0.97	0.97	0.97	0.97	0.96	0.96	0.95	0.95
15-Oct	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.98	0.98	0.98	0.98	0.98	0.98	0.97	0.97	0.97	0.97	0.96	0.96	0.95	0.95	0.95
14-Oct	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.98	0.98	0.98	0.98	0.98	0.98	0.97	0.97	0.97	0.97	0.96	0.96	0.95	0.95	0.95	0.94
13-Oct	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.98	0.98	0.98	0.98	0.98	0.98	0.97	0.97	0.97	0.97	0.96	0.96	0.95	0.95	0.95	0.94	0.94
12-Oct	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.98	0.98	0.98	0.98	0.98	0.98	0.97	0.97	0.97	0.97	0.96	0.96	0.95	0.95	0.95	0.94	0.94	0.93
11-Oct	0.99	0.99	0.98	0.98	0.98	0.98	0.98	0.98	0.97	0.97	0.97	0.97	0.96	0.96	0.95	0.95	0.95	0.94	0.94	0.93	0.92
10-Oct	0.99	0.98	0.98	0.98	0.98	0.98	0.98	0.97	0.97	0.97	0.97	0.96	0.96	0.95	0.95	0.95	0.94	0.94	0.93	0.92	0.92
09-Oct	0.98	0.98	0.98	0.98	0.98	0.98	0.97	0.97	0.97	0.97	0.96	0.96	0.95	0.95	0.95	0.94	0.94	0.93	0.92	0.92	0.91
08-Oct	0.98	0.98	0.98	0.98	0.98	0.97	0.97	0.97	0.97	0.96	0.96	0.95	0.95	0.95	0.94	0.94	0.93	0.92	0.92	0.91	0.90
07-Oct	0.98	0.98	0.98	0.98	0.97	0.97	0.97	0.97	0.96	0.96	0.95	0.95	0.95	0.94	0.94	0.93	0.92	0.92	0.91	0.90	0.89
06-Oct	0.98	0.98	0.98	0.97	0.97	0.97	0.97	0.96	0.96	0.95	0.95	0.95	0.94	0.94	0.93	0.92	0.92	0.91	0.90	0.89	0.88
05-Oct	0.98	0.98	0.97	0.97	0.97	0.97	0.96	0.96	0.95	0.95	0.95	0.94	0.94	0.93	0.92	0.92	0.91	0.90	0.89	0.88	0.87
04-Oct	0.98	0.97	0.97	0.97	0.97	0.96	0.96	0.95	0.95	0.95	0.94	0.94	0.93	0.92	0.92	0.91	0.90	0.89	0.88	0.87	0.86
03-Oct	0.97	0.97	0.97	0.97	0.96	0.96	0.95	0.95	0.95	0.94	0.94	0.93	0.92	0.92	0.91	0.90	0.89	0.88	0.87	0.86	0.84
02-Oct	0.97	0.97	0.97	0.96	0.96	0.95	0.95	0.95	0.94	0.94	0.93	0.92	0.92	0.91	0.90	0.89	0.88	0.87	0.86	0.84	0.83
01-Oct	0.97	0.97	0.96	0.96	0.95	0.95	0.95	0.94	0.94	0.93	0.92	0.92	0.91	0.90	0.89	0.88	0.87	0.86	0.84	0.83	0.81
30-Sep	0.97	0.96	0.96	0.95	0.95	0.95	0.94	0.94	0.93	0.92	0.92	0.91	0.90	0.89	0.88	0.87	0.86	0.84	0.83	0.81	0.79
29-Sep	0.96	0.96	0.95	0.95	0.95	0.94	0.94	0.93	0.92	0.92	0.91	0.90	0.89	0.88	0.87	0.86	0.84	0.83	0.81	0.79	0.77
28-Sep	0.96	0.95	0.95	0.95	0.94	0.94	0.93	0.92	0.92	0.91	0.90	0.89	0.88	0.87	0.86	0.84	0.83	0.81	0.79	0.77	0.76
27-Sep	0.95	0.95	0.95	0.94	0.94	0.93	0.92	0.92	0.91	0.90	0.89	0.88	0.87	0.86	0.84	0.83	0.81	0.79	0.77	0.76	0.74
26-Sep	0.95	0.95	0.94	0.94	0.93	0.92	0.92	0.91	0.90	0.89	0.88	0.87	0.86	0.84	0.83	0.81	0.79	0.77	0.76	0.74	0.71
25-Sep	0.95	0.94	0.94	0.93	0.92	0.92	0.91	0.90	0.89	0.88	0.87	0.86	0.84	0.83	0.81	0.79	0.77	0.76	0.74	0.71	0.69
24-Sep	0.94	0.94	0.93	0.92	0.92	0.91	0.90	0.89	0.88	0.87	0.86	0.84	0.83	0.81	0.79	0.77	0.76	0.74	0.71	0.69	0.66
23-Sep	0.94	0.93	0.92	0.92	0.91	0.90	0.89	0.88	0.87	0.86	0.84	0.83	0.81	0.79	0.77	0.76	0.74	0.71	0.69	0.66	0.64
22-Sep	0.93	0.92	0.92	0.91	0.90	0.89	0.88	0.87	0.86	0.84	0.83	0.81	0.79	0.77	0.76	0.74	0.71	0.69	0.66	0.64	0.61
21-Sep	0.92	0.92	0.91	0.90	0.89	0.88	0.87	0.86	0.84	0.83	0.81	0.79	0.77	0.76	0.74	0.71	0.69	0.66	0.64	0.61	0.57
20-Sep	0.92	0.91	0.90	0.89	0.88	0.87	0.86	0.84	0.83	0.81	0.79	0.77	0.76	0.74	0.71	0.69	0.66	0.64	0.61	0.57	0.53
19-Sep	0.91	0.90	0.89	0.88	0.87	0.86	0.84	0.83	0.81	0.79	0.77	0.76	0.74	0.71	0.69	0.66	0.64	0.61	0.57	0.53	0.50
18-Sep	0.90	0.89	0.88	0.87	0.86	0.84	0.83	0.81	0.79	0.77	0.76	0.74	0.71	0.69	0.66	0.64	0.61	0.57	0.53	0.50	0.47
17-Sep	0.89	0.88	0.87	0.86	0.84	0.83	0.81	0.79	0.77	0.76	0.74	0.71	0.69	0.66	0.64	0.61	0.57	0.53	0.50	0.47	0.43
16-Sep	0.88	0.87	0.86	0.84	0.83	0.81	0.79	0.77	0.76	0.74	0.71	0.69	0.66	0.64	0.61	0.57	0.53	0.50	0.47	0.43	0.40
15-Sep	0.87	0.86	0.84	0.83	0.81	0.79	0.77	0.76	0.74	0.71	0.69	0.66	0.64	0.61	0.57	0.53	0.50	0.47	0.43	0.40	0.37
14-Sep	0.86	0.84	0.83	0.81	0.79	0.77	0.76	0.74	0.71	0.69	0.66	0.64	0.61	0.57	0.53	0.50	0.47	0.43	0.40	0.37	0.34
13-Sep	0.84	0.83	0.81	0.79	0.77	0.76	0.74	0.71	0.69	0.66	0.64	0.61	0.57	0.53	0.50	0.47	0.43	0.40	0.37	0.34	0.31
12-Sep	0.83	0.81	0.79	0.77	0.76	0.74	0.71	0.69	0.66	0.64	0.61	0.57	0.53	0.50	0.47	0.43	0.40	0.37	0.34	0.31	0.29
11-Sep	0.81	0.79	0.77	0.76	0.74	0.71	0.69	0.66	0.64	0.61	0.57	0.53	0.50	0.47	0.43	0.40	0.37	0.34	0.31	0.29	0.26
10-Sep	0.79	0.77	0.76	0.74	0.71	0.69	0.66	0.64	0.61	0.57	0.53	0.50	0.47	0.43	0.40	0.37	0.34	0.31	0.29	0.26	0.23
09-Sep	0.77	0.76	0.74	0.71	0.69	0.66	0.64	0.61	0.57	0.53	0.50	0.47	0.43	0.40	0.37	0.34	0.31	0.29	0.26	0.23	0.20
08-Sep	0.76	0.74	0.71	0.69	0.66	0.64	0.61	0.57	0.53	0.50	0.47	0.43	0.40	0.37	0.34	0.31	0.29	0.26	0.23	0.20	0.18
07-Sep	0.74	0.71	0.69	0.66	0.64	0.61	0.57	0.53	0.50	0.47	0.43	0.40	0.37	0.34	0.31	0.29	0.26	0.23	0.20	0.18	0.16
06-Sep	0.71	0.69	0.66	0.64	0.61	0.57	0.53	0.50	0.47	0.43	0.40	0.37	0.34	0.31	0.29	0.26	0.23	0.20	0.18	0.16	0.14
05-Sep	0.69	0.66	0.64	0.61	0.57	0.53	0.50	0.47	0.43	0.40	0.37	0.34	0.31	0.29	0.26	0.23	0.20	0.18	0.16	0.14	0.12
04-Sep	0.66	0.64	0.61	0.57	0.53	0.50	0.47	0.43	0.40	0.37	0.34	0.31	0.29	0.26	0.23	0.20	0.18	0.16	0.14	0.12	0.10
03-Sep	0.64	0.61	0.57	0.53	0.50	0.47	0.43	0.40	0.37	0.34	0.31	0.29	0.26	0.23	0.20	0.18	0.16	0.14	0.12	0.10	0.09
02-Sep	0.61	0.57	0.53	0.50	0.47	0.43	0.40	0.37	0.34	0.31	0.29	0.26	0.23	0.20	0.18	0.16	0.14	0.12	0.10	0.09	0.08
01-Sep	0.57	0.53	0.50	0.47	0.43	0.40	0.37	0.34	0.31	0.29	0.26	0.23	0.20	0.18	0.16	0.14	0.12	0.10	0.09	0.08	0.07
31-Aug	0.53	0.50	0.47	0.43	0.40	0.37	0.34	0.31	0.29	0.26	0.23	0.20	0.18	0.16	0.14	0.12	0.10	0.09	0.08	0.07	0.06
30-Aug	0.50	0.47	0.43	0.40	0.37	0.34	0.31	0.29	0.26	0.23	0.20	0.18	0.16	0.14	0.12	0.10	0.09	0.08	0.07	0.06	0.05
29-Aug	0.47	0.43	0.40	0.37	0.34	0.31	0.29	0.26	0.23	0.20	0.18	0.16	0.14	0.12	0.10	0.09	0.08	0.07	0.06	0.05	0.05
28-Aug	0.43	0.40	0.37	0.34	0.31	0.29	0.26	0.23	0.20	0.18	0.16	0.14	0.12	0.10	0.09	0.08	0.07	0.06	0.05	0.05	0.04
27-Aug	0.40	0.37	0.34	0.31	0.29	0.26	0.23	0.20	0.18	0.16	0.14	0.12	0.10	0.09	0.08	0.07	0.06	0.05	0.05	0.04	0.04
26-Aug	0.37	0.34	0.31	0.29	0.26	0.23	0.20	0.18	0.16	0.14	0.12	0.10	0.09	0.08	0.07	0.06	0.05	0.05	0.04	0.04	0.03
25-Aug	0.34	0.31	0.29	0.26	0.23	0.20	0.18	0.16	0.14	0.12	0.10	0.09	0.08	0.07	0.06	0.05	0.05	0.04	0.04	0.03	0.03
24-Aug	0.31	0.29	0.26	0.23	0.20	0.18	0.16	0.14	0.12	0.10	0.09	0.08	0.07	0.06	0.05	0.05	0.04	0.04	0.03	0.03	0.02
23-Aug	0.29	0.26	0.23	0.20	0.18	0.16	0.14	0.12	0.10	0.09	0.08	0.07	0.06	0.05	0.05	0.04	0.04	0.03	0.03	0.02	0.02
22-Aug	0.26	0.23	0.20	0.18	0.16	0.14	0.12	0.10	0.09	0.08	0.07	0.06	0.05	0.05	0.04	0.04	0.03	0.03	0.02	0.02	0.02
21-Aug	0.23	0.20	0.18	0.16	0.14	0.12	0.10	0.09	0.08	0.07	0.06	0.05	0.05	0.04	0.04	0.03	0.03	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.02
20-Aug	0.20	0.18	0.16	0.14	0.12	0.10	0.09	0.08	0.07	0.06	0.05	0.05	0.04	0.04	0.03	0.03	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.01
19-Aug	0.18	0.16	0.14	0.12	0.10	0.09	0.08	0.07	0.06	0.05	0.05	0.04	0.04	0.03	0.03	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.01	0.01
18-Aug	0.16	0.14	0.12	0.10	0.09	0.08	0.07	0.06	0.05	0.05	0.04	0.04	0.03	0.03	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.01	0.01	0.01
17-Aug	0.14	0.12	0.10	0.09	0.08	0.07	0.06	0.05	0.05	0.04	0.04	0.03	0.03	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01
16-Aug	0.12	0.10	0.09	0.08	0.07	0.06	0.05	0.05	0.04	0.04	0.03	0.03	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01
15-Aug	0.10	0.09	0.08	0.07	0.06	0.05	0.05	0.04	0.04	0.03	0.03	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01
14-Aug	0.09	0.08	0.07	0.06	0.05	0.05	0.04	0.04	0.03	0.03	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01
13-Aug	0.08	0.07	0.06	0.05	0.05	0.04	0.04	0.03	0.03	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00
12-Aug	0.07	0.06	0.05	0.05	0.04	0.04	0.03	0.03	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00
11-Aug	0.06	0.05	0.05	0.04	0.04	0.03	0.03	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00
10-Aug	0.05	0.05	0.04	0.04	0.03	0.03	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	NA
09-Aug	0.05	0.04	0.04	0.03	0.03	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	NA	NA
08-Aug	0.04	0.04	0.03	0.03	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	NA	NA	NA
07-Aug	0.04	0.03	0.03	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	NA	NA	NA	NA
06-Aug	0.03	0.03	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA
05-Aug	0.03	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA
04-Aug	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA
03-Aug	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA
02-Aug	0.02	0.02	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA
01-Aug	0.02	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA

5-year average

Prediction

Date	Daily counts	Cumulative count	10 Days Early	9 Days Early	8 Days Early	7 Days Early	6 Days Early	5 Days Early	4 Days Early	3 Days Early	2 Days Early	1 Days Early	5yr Average	1 Days Late	2 Days Late	3 Days Late	4 Days Late	5 Days Late	6 Days Late	7 Days Late	8 Days Late	9 Days Late	10 Days Late
01-Sep	8,391	97,706	153,796	162,435	171,207	183,054	199,715	213,553	227,686	247,548	270,331	290,572	319,316	363,771	413,709	465,901	533,706	612,980	719,253	838,016	1,000,928	1,121,802	1,259,556
31-Aug	13,725	89,315	148,486	156,504	167,334	182,564	195,214	208,133	226,289	247,116	265,619	291,894	332,532	378,182	425,892	487,873	560,339	657,486	766,050	914,972	1,025,466	1,151,391	1,347,674
30-Aug	10,910	75,590	132,454	141,619	154,509	165,215	176,148	191,515	209,141	224,800	247,038	281,431	320,065	360,444	412,901	474,230	556,449	648,329	774,366	867,880	974,453	1,140,573	1,298,674
29-Aug	11,072	64,680	121,179	132,208	141,369	150,725	163,873	178,955	192,355	211,383	240,812	273,870	308,420	353,306	405,784	476,136	554,755	662,601	742,618	833,809	975,953	1,111,235	1,255,442
28-Aug	6,006	53,608	109,577	117,170	124,924	135,822	148,322	159,428	175,199	199,590	226,989	255,625	292,828	336,323	394,631	459,793	549,177	615,498	691,079	808,891	921,016	1,040,537	1,193,466
27-Aug	2,249	47,602	104,042	110,927	120,604	131,703	141,565	155,569	177,227	201,557	226,984	260,018	298,640	350,416	408,276	487,646	546,535	613,648	718,260	817,822	923,952	1,059,746	1,201,538
26-Aug	1,956	45,353	105,686	114,906	125,481	134,876	148,219	168,854	192,034	216,260	247,733	284,530	333,860	388,986	464,606	520,713	584,655	684,324	779,182	880,298	1,009,676	1,144,769	1,360,082
25-Aug	4,703	43,397	109,951	120,070	129,061	141,828	161,573	183,753	206,935	237,051	272,261	319,464	372,214	444,573	498,261	559,445	654,817	745,585	842,340	966,140	1,095,408	1,301,437	1,494,974
24-Aug	7,894	38,694	107,059	115,075	126,459	144,064	163,841	184,511	211,364	242,758	284,846	331,879	396,397	444,267	498,822	583,859	664,791	751,062	861,446	976,706	1,160,409	1,332,974	1,563,830
23-Aug	5,243	30,800	91,599	100,660	114,674	130,416	146,869	168,243	193,233	226,734	264,172	315,528	353,632	397,057	464,745	529,166	597,836	685,701	777,447	923,672	1,061,032	1,244,791	1,460,561
22-Aug	2,101	25,557	83,525	95,153	108,216	121,868	139,604	160,340	188,139	219,204	261,818	293,436	329,469	385,635	439,090	496,071	568,979	645,107	766,442	880,420	1,032,899	1,211,940	1,364,318
21-Aug	2,091	23,457	87,333	99,322	111,852	128,130	147,162	172,676	201,188	240,299	269,318	302,390	353,939	403,001	455,299	522,215	592,086	703,448	808,059	948,005	1,112,331	1,252,185	1,399,194
20-Aug	3,579	21,366	90,468	101,881	116,709	134,044	157,283	183,254	218,879	245,311	275,435	322,389	367,078	414,714	475,665	539,308	640,743	736,029	863,500	1,013,178	1,140,566	1,274,470	1,453,087
19-Aug	3,629	17,787	84,817	97,161	111,593	130,940	152,560	182,219	204,224	229,302	268,392	305,595	345,253	395,995	448,979	533,424	612,750	718,872	843,480	949,531	1,061,008	1,209,708	1,400,625
18-Aug	1,231	14,158	77,336	88,823	104,222	121,432	145,038	162,553	182,514	213,628	243,241	274,806	315,195	357,368	424,583	487,723	572,191	671,374	755,786	844,516	962,875	1,114,837	1,259,365
17-Aug	757	12,927	81,099	95,159	110,871	132,425	148,417	166,642	195,050	222,088	250,908	287,784	326,289	387,659	445,308	522,431	612,988	690,059	771,074	879,140	1,017,886	1,149,846	1,328,948
16-Aug	562	12,170	89,586	104,379	124,670	139,726	156,884	183,629	209,082	236,215	270,932	307,182	364,958	419,232	491,838	577,092	649,650	725,921	827,658	958,280	1,082,512	1,251,126	1,525,604
15-Aug	379	11,607	99,554	118,908	133,268	149,632	175,141	199,418	225,297	258,409	292,984	348,090	399,854	469,104	550,418	619,623	692,368	789,403	913,987	1,032,477	1,193,298	1,455,089	1,787,239
14-Aug	895	11,228	115,024	128,914	144,745	169,420	192,904	217,938	249,968	283,414	336,719	386,793	453,782	532,439	599,383	669,752	763,618	884,132	998,752	1,154,319	1,407,559	1,728,860	2,151,784
13-Aug	1,079	10,333	118,643	133,212	155,922	177,535	200,574	230,052	260,833	309,892	355,976	417,627	490,018	551,628	616,390	702,777	813,690	919,177	1,062,350	1,295,413	1,591,115	1,980,342	2,696,416
12-Aug	1,386	9,254	119,299	139,636	158,992	179,625	206,024	233,590	277,525	318,795	374,007	438,837	494,012	552,010	629,375	728,703	823,173	951,391	1,160,112	1,424,929	1,773,503	2,414,785	3,782,058
11-Aug	1,548	7,868	118,716	135,172	152,713	175,157	198,593	235,945	271,033	317,973	373,089	419,998	469,307	535,080	619,527	699,843	808,852	986,301	1,211,442	1,507,792	2,052,996	3,215,421	6,965,511
10-Aug	1,499	6,319	108,569	122,658	140,685	159,509	189,510	217,692	255,394	299,663	337,340	376,945	429,773	497,600	562,110	649,665	792,191	973,024	1,211,050	1,648,955	2,582,607	5,594,658	NA
09-Aug	1,225	4,820	93,556	107,306	121,664	144,547	166,042	194,799	228,565	257,302	287,510	327,805	379,539	428,743	495,525	604,235	742,163	923,715	1,257,722	1,969,855	4,267,263	NA	NA
08-Aug	943	3,595	80,036	90,745	107,812	123,845	145,294	170,479	191,913	214,444	244,499	283,086	319,785	369,596	450,679	553,555	688,969	938,093	1,469,250	3,182,811	NA	NA	NA
07-Aug	725	2,652	66,946	79,537	91,365	107,189	125,769	141,582	158,204	180,376	208,843	235,918	272,665	332,483	408,379	508,279	692,068	1,083,923	2,348,083	NA	NA	NA	NA
06-Aug	331	1,928	57,806	66,402	77,902	91,406	102,898	114,979	131,093	151,782	171,460	198,166	241,641	296,800	369,405	502,978	787,769	1,706,531	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA
05-Aug	210	1,597	55,007	64,534	75,720	85,240	95,248	108,597	125,736	142,036	164,160	200,174	245,868	306,013	416,665	652,584	1,413,681	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA
04-Aug	198	1,387	56,047	65,762	74,030	82,721	94,315	109,200	123,356	142,571	173,848	213,532	265,768	361,867	566,760	1,227,762	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA
03-Aug	325	1,189	56,373	63,460	70,911	80,849	93,609	105,744	122,215	149,027	183,045	227,823	310,201	485,840	1,052,466	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA
02-Aug	442	864	46,111	51,525	58,746	68,017	76,835	88,803	108,285	133,003	165,538	225,396	353,017	764,734	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA
01-Aug	422	422	25,159	28,685	33,213	37,518	43,362	52,875	64,945	80,832	110,060	172,377	373,418	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA

Proportion complete

Date	10 Days Early	9 Days Early	8 Days Early	7 Days Early	6 Days Early	5 Days Early	4 Days Early	3 Days Early	2 Days Early	1 Days Early	5yr Average	1 Days Late	2 Days Late	3 Days Late	4 Days Late	5 Days Late	6 Days Late	7 Days Late	8 Days Late	9 Days Late	10 Days Late
30-Nov	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00
29-Nov	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00
28-Nov	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00
27-Nov	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00
26-Nov	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00
25-Nov	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00
24-Nov	NA	NA	NA	NA	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00
23-Nov	NA	NA	NA	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00
22-Nov	NA	NA	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00
21-Nov	NA	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00
20-Nov	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00
19-Nov	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00
18-Nov	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00
17-Nov	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00
16-Nov	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00
15-Nov	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00
14-Nov	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00
13-Nov	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00
12-Nov	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00
11-Nov	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00
10-Nov	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00
09-Nov	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00
08-Nov	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00
07-Nov	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00
06-Nov	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00
05-Nov	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00
04-Nov	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00
03-Nov	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00
02-Nov	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00
01-Nov	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	0.99
31-Oct	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	0.99	0.99
30-Oct	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	0.99	0.99	0.99
29-Oct	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99
28-Oct	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99
27-Oct	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99
26-Oct	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99
25-Oct	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99
24-Oct	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99
23-Oct	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.98
22-Oct	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.98	0.98
21-Oct	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.98	0.98	0.98
20-Oct	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.98	0.98	0.98	0.98
19-Oct	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.98	0.98	0.98	0.98	0.97
18-Oct	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.98	0.98	0.98	0.98	0.97	0.97
17-Oct	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.98	0.98	0.98	0.98	0.97	0.97	0.97
16-Oct	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.98	0.98	0.98	0.98	0.97	0.97	0.97	0.96
15-Oct	1.00	1.00	1.00	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.98	0.98	0.98	0.98	0.97	0.97	0.97	0.96	0.96
14-Oct	1.00	1.00	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.98	0.98	0.98	0.98	0.97	0.97	0.97	0.96	0.96	0.95
13-Oct	1.00	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.98	0.98	0.98	0.98	0.97	0.97	0.97	0.96	0.96	0.95	0.95
12-Oct	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.98	0.98	0.98	0.98	0.97	0.97	0.97	0.96	0.96	0.95	0.95	0.94
11-Oct	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.98	0.98	0.98	0.98	0.97	0.97	0.97	0.96	0.96	0.95	0.95	0.94	0.94
10-Oct	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.98	0.98	0.98	0.98	0.97	0.97	0.97	0.96	0.96	0.95	0.95	0.94	0.94	0.93
09-Oct	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.98	0.98	0.98	0.98	0.97	0.97	0.97	0.96	0.96	0.95	0.95	0.94	0.94	0.93	0.93
08-Oct	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.98	0.98	0.98	0.98	0.97	0.97	0.97	0.96	0.96	0.95	0.95	0.94	0.94	0.93	0.93	0.92
07-Oct	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.98	0.98	0.98	0.98	0.97	0.97	0.97	0.96	0.96	0.95	0.95	0.94	0.94	0.93	0.93	0.92	0.91
06-Oct	0.99	0.99	0.99	0.98	0.98	0.98	0.98	0.97	0.97	0.97	0.96	0.96	0.95	0.95	0.94	0.94	0.93	0.93	0.92	0.91	0.90
05-Oct	0.99	0.99	0.98	0.98	0.98	0.98	0.97	0.97	0.97	0.96	0.96	0.95	0.95	0.94	0.94	0.93	0.93	0.92	0.91	0.90	0.89
04-Oct	0.99	0.98	0.98	0.98	0.98	0.97	0.97	0.97	0.96	0.96	0.95	0.95	0.94	0.94	0.93	0.93	0.92	0.91	0.90	0.89	0.88
03-Oct	0.98	0.98	0.98	0.98	0.97	0.97	0.97	0.96	0.96	0.95	0.95	0.94	0.94	0.93	0.93	0.92	0.91	0.90	0.89	0.88	0.87
02-Oct	0.98	0.98	0.98	0.97	0.97	0.97	0.96	0.96	0.95	0.95	0.94	0.94	0.93	0.93	0.92	0.91	0.90	0.89	0.88	0.87	0.85
01-Oct	0.98	0.98	0.97	0.97	0.97	0.96	0.96	0.95	0.95	0.94	0.94	0.93	0.93	0.92	0.91	0.90	0.89	0.88	0.87	0.85	0.84
30-Sep	0.98	0.97	0.97	0.97	0.96	0.96	0.95	0.95	0.94	0.94	0.93	0.93	0.92	0.91	0.90	0.89	0.88	0.87	0.85	0.84	0.83
29-Sep	0.97	0.97	0.97	0.96	0.96	0.95	0.95	0.94	0.94	0.93	0.93	0.92	0.91	0.90	0.89	0.88	0.87	0.85	0.84	0.83	0.81
28-Sep	0.97	0.97	0.96	0.96	0.95	0.95	0.94	0.94	0.93	0.93	0.92	0.91	0.90	0.89	0.88	0.87	0.85	0.84	0.83	0.81	0.80
27-Sep	0.97	0.96	0.96	0.95	0.95	0.94	0.94	0.93	0.93	0.92	0.91	0.90	0.89	0.88	0.87	0.85	0.84	0.83	0.81	0.80	0.78
26-Sep	0.96	0.96	0.95	0.95	0.94	0.94	0.93	0.93	0.92	0.91	0.90	0.89	0.88	0.87	0.85	0.84	0.83	0.81	0.80	0.78	0.76
25-Sep	0.96	0.95	0.95	0.94	0.94	0.93	0.93	0.92	0.91	0.90	0.89	0.88	0.87	0.85	0.84	0.83	0.81	0.80	0.78	0.76	0.74
24-Sep	0.95	0.95	0.94	0.94	0.93	0.93	0.92	0.91	0.90	0.89	0.88	0.87	0.85	0.84	0.83	0.81	0.80	0.78	0.76	0.74	0.71
23-Sep	0.95	0.94	0.94	0.93	0.93	0.92	0.91	0.90	0.89	0.88	0.87	0.85	0.84	0.83	0.81	0.80	0.78	0.76	0.74	0.71	0.69
22-Sep	0.94	0.94	0.93	0.93	0.92	0.91	0.90	0.89	0.88	0.87	0.85	0.84	0.83	0.81	0.80	0.78	0.76	0.74	0.71	0.69	0.66
21-Sep	0.94	0.93	0.93	0.92	0.91	0.90	0.89	0.88	0.87	0.85	0.84	0.83	0.81	0.80	0.78	0.76	0.74	0.71	0.69	0.66	0.64
20-Sep	0.93	0.93	0.92	0.91	0.90	0.89	0.88	0.87	0.85	0.84	0.83	0.81	0.80	0.78	0.76	0.74	0.71	0.69	0.66	0.64	0.60
19-Sep	0.93	0.92	0.91	0.90	0.89	0.88	0.87	0.85	0.84	0.83	0.81	0.80	0.78	0.76	0.74	0.71	0.69	0.66	0.64	0.60	0.57
18-Sep	0.92	0.91	0.90	0.89	0.88	0.87	0.85	0.84	0.83	0.81	0.80	0.78	0.76	0.74	0.71	0.69	0.66	0.64	0.60	0.57	0.53
17-Sep	0.91	0.90	0.89	0.88	0.87	0.85	0.84	0.83	0.81	0.80	0.78	0.76	0.74	0.71	0.69	0.66	0.64	0.60	0.57	0.53	0.49
16-Sep	0.90	0.89	0.88	0.87	0.85	0.84	0.83	0.81	0.80	0.78	0.76	0.74	0.71	0.69	0.66	0.64	0.60	0.57	0.53	0.49	0.46
15-Sep	0.89	0.88	0.87	0.85	0.84	0.83	0.81	0.80	0.78	0.76	0.74	0.71	0.69	0.66	0.64	0.60	0.57	0.53	0.49	0.46	0.43
14-Sep	0.88	0.87	0.85	0.84	0.83	0.81	0.80	0.78	0.76	0.74	0.71	0.69	0.66	0.64	0.60	0.57	0.53	0.49	0.46	0.43	0.39
13-Sep	0.87	0.85	0.84	0.83	0.81	0.80	0.78	0.76	0.74	0.71	0.69	0.66	0.64	0.60	0.57	0.53	0.49	0.46	0.43	0.39	0.36
12-Sep	0.85	0.84	0.83	0.81	0.80	0.78	0.76	0.74	0.71	0.69	0.66	0.64	0.60	0.57	0.53	0.49	0.46	0.43	0.39	0.36	0.34
11-Sep	0.84	0.83	0.81	0.80	0.78	0.76	0.74	0.71	0.69	0.66	0.64	0.60	0.57	0.53	0.49	0.46	0.43	0.39	0.36	0.34	0.31
10-Sep	0.83	0.81	0.80	0.78	0.76	0.74	0.71	0.69	0.66	0.64	0.60	0.57	0.53	0.49	0.46	0.43	0.39	0.36	0.34	0.31	0.27
09-Sep	0.81	0.80	0.78	0.76	0.74	0.71	0.69	0.66	0.64	0.60	0.57	0.53	0.49	0.46	0.43	0.39	0.36	0.34	0.31	0.27	0.24
08-Sep	0.80	0.78	0.76	0.74	0.71	0.69	0.66	0.64	0.60	0.57	0.53	0.49	0.46	0.43	0.39	0.36	0.34	0.31	0.27	0.24	0.21
07-Sep	0.78	0.76	0.74	0.71	0.69	0.66	0.64	0.60	0.57	0.53	0.49	0.46	0.43	0.39	0.36	0.34	0.31	0.27	0.24	0.21	0.18
06-Sep	0.76	0.74	0.71	0.69	0.66	0.64	0.60	0.57	0.53	0.49	0.46	0.43	0.39	0.36	0.34	0.31	0.27	0.24	0.21	0.18	0.16
05-Sep	0.74	0.71	0.69	0.66	0.64	0.60	0.57	0.53	0.49	0.46	0.43	0.39	0.36	0.34	0.31	0.27	0.24	0.21	0.18	0.16	0.14
04-Sep	0.71	0.69	0.66	0.64	0.60	0.57	0.53	0.49	0.46	0.43	0.39	0.36	0.34	0.31	0.27	0.24	0.21	0.18	0.16	0.14	0.12
03-Sep	0.69	0.66	0.64	0.60	0.57	0.53	0.49	0.46	0.43	0.39	0.36	0.34	0.31	0.27	0.24	0.21	0.18	0.16	0.14	0.12	0.10
02-Sep	0.66	0.64	0.60	0.57	0.53	0.49	0.46	0.43	0.39	0.36	0.34	0.31	0.27	0.24	0.21	0.18	0.16	0.14	0.12	0.10	0.09
01-Sep	0.64	0.60	0.57	0.53	0.49	0.46	0.43	0.39	0.36	0.34	0.31	0.27	0.24	0.21	0.18	0.16	0.14	0.12	0.10	0.09	0.08
31-Aug	0.60	0.57	0.53	0.49	0.46	0.43	0.39	0.36	0.34	0.31	0.27	0.24	0.21	0.18	0.16	0.14	0.12	0.10	0.09	0.08	0.07
30-Aug	0.57	0.53	0.49	0.46	0.43	0.39	0.36	0.34	0.31	0.27	0.24	0.21	0.18	0.16	0.14	0.12	0.10	0.09	0.08	0.07	0.06
29-Aug	0.53	0.49	0.46	0.43	0.39	0.36	0.34	0.31	0.27	0.24	0.21	0.18	0.16	0.14	0.12	0.10	0.09	0.08	0.07	0.06	0.05
28-Aug	0.49	0.46	0.43	0.39	0.36	0.34	0.31	0.27	0.24	0.21	0.18	0.16	0.14	0.12	0.10	0.09	0.08	0.07	0.06	0.05	0.04
27-Aug	0.46	0.43	0.39	0.36	0.34	0.31	0.27	0.24	0.21	0.18	0.16	0.14	0.12	0.10	0.09	0.08	0.07	0.06	0.05	0.04	0.04
26-Aug	0.43	0.39	0.36	0.34	0.31	0.27	0.24	0.21	0.18	0.16	0.14	0.12	0.10	0.09	0.08	0.07	0.06	0.05	0.04	0.04	0.03
25-Aug	0.39	0.36	0.34	0.31	0.27	0.24	0.21	0.18	0.16	0.14	0.12	0.10	0.09	0.08	0.07	0.06	0.05	0.04	0.04	0.03	0.03
24-Aug	0.36	0.34	0.31	0.27	0.24	0.21	0.18	0.16	0.14	0.12	0.10	0.09	0.08	0.07	0.06	0.05	0.04	0.04	0.03	0.03	0.02
23-Aug	0.34	0.31	0.27	0.24	0.21	0.18	0.16	0.14	0.12	0.10	0.09	0.08	0.07	0.06	0.05	0.04	0.04	0.03	0.03	0.02	0.02
22-Aug	0.31	0.27	0.24	0.21	0.18	0.16	0.14	0.12	0.10	0.09	0.08	0.07	0.06	0.05	0.04	0.04	0.03	0.03	0.02	0.02	0.02
21-Aug	0.27	0.24	0.21	0.18	0.16	0.14	0.12	0.10	0.09	0.08	0.07	0.06	0.05	0.04	0.04	0.03	0.03	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.02
20-Aug	0.24	0.21	0.18	0.16	0.14	0.12	0.10	0.09	0.08	0.07	0.06	0.05	0.04	0.04	0.03	0.03	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.01
19-Aug	0.21	0.18	0.16	0.14	0.12	0.10	0.09	0.08	0.07	0.06	0.05	0.04	0.04	0.03	0.03	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.01	0.01
18-Aug	0.18	0.16	0.14	0.12	0.10	0.09	0.08	0.07	0.06	0.05	0.04	0.04	0.03	0.03	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.01	0.01	0.01
17-Aug	0.16	0.14	0.12	0.10	0.09	0.08	0.07	0.06	0.05	0.04	0.04	0.03	0.03	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01
16-Aug	0.14	0.12	0.10	0.09	0.08	0.07	0.06	0.05	0.04	0.04	0.03	0.03	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01
15-Aug	0.12	0.10	0.09	0.08	0.07	0.06	0.05	0.04	0.04	0.03	0.03	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01
14-Aug	0.10	0.09	0.08	0.07	0.06	0.05	0.04	0.04	0.03	0.03	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01
13-Aug	0.09	0.08	0.07	0.06	0.05	0.04	0.04	0.03	0.03	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00
12-Aug	0.08	0.07	0.06	0.05	0.04	0.04	0.03	0.03	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00
11-Aug	0.07	0.06	0.05	0.04	0.04	0.03	0.03	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00
10-Aug	0.06	0.05	0.04	0.04	0.03	0.03	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	NA
09-Aug	0.05	0.04	0.04	0.03	0.03	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	NA	NA
08-Aug	0.04	0.04	0.03	0.03	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	NA	NA	NA
07-Aug	0.04	0.03	0.03	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	NA	NA	NA	NA
06-Aug	0.03	0.03	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA
05-Aug	0.03	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA
04-Aug	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA
03-Aug	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA
02-Aug	0.02	0.02	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA
01-Aug	0.02	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA

Data sources

Fish counts are accessed from the Fish Passage Center and river environment data from the US Army Corps of Engineers Northwest District

Fall season visual estimates of tule and bright passage are available from data.wa.gov

Additional resources

Columbia Basin Research produces spring and fall Chinook run size predictions available here.

This site shows spring Chinook run size predictions from ODFW based on a log-linear regression between end-of-season dam counts and 2 predictors: 1) the total jack dam counts from the previous year, and 2) the cumulative adult counts to date.

This site shows sockeye run size predictions from ODFW.

Data from test fishing is available here

A plethora of information including pre-season forecasts and fact sheet with catch updates is available here. Note that pre-season forecasts are generally of an index of abundance that includes the Bonneville Dam counts and harvest below Bonneville Dam, so a greater number than what is being predicted here.

Code used to generate predictions and render website is available here