Last updated 09/02/2025.


spring

The cumulative spring season adult Chinook passage at Bonneville Dam through June 15, 2025 is 146,061. The 10-year (2015–2024) average proportion of the count that has occurred at Bonneville Dam through June 15 is 100%. Based on the cumulative counts to date and this proportion, the expected total spring (Mar 1–Jun 15) season dam count would be 146,134 (95% prediction interval = 146,134 – 146,134 and 50% prediction interval = 146,134 – 146,134) adult Chinook.

Current year

Daily adult chinook salmon counts, flow, and temperature measurements taken at Bonneville Dam.

Percent complete

Percent of the run complete by date in 2010–2024. Lower and upper hinges correspond to the first and third quartiles (the 25th and 75th percentiles).The upper whisker extends from the hinge to the largest value no further than 1.5 * IQR from the hinge (where IQR is the inter-quartile range, or distance between the first and third quartiles). The lower whisker extends from the hinge to the smallest value at most 1.5 * IQR of the hinge. Data beyond the end of the whiskers are called "outlying" points and are plotted individually.

Prediction error

Mean absolute percent error (over 15 year retrospectiv) of predictions based on cumulative counts and 10-year average run timing, by day of year.

Run size predictions
Prediction table
Predictions of the fall season (Mar 1–Jun 15) total adult Chinook salmon count with prediction intervals (50% and 95%) and the mean absolute percent error (MAPE) of predictions made with counts through June 15 in a 15-year retrospective assesment.
Model Pred Lo 951 Lo 501 Hi 501 Hi 951 MAPE
10-year ave. timing 146,134 146,134 146,134 146,134 146,134 0%
1 Prediction intervals for different model types are calculated using different methods, which complicates comparison somewhat. See Methods Description for more detail.
Prediction plot

Daily predictions of total counts at Bonneville from different models.

Prediction interval plot

Daily predictions and prediction intervals (95% and 50%). Prediction intervals for different model types are calculated using different methods, so may not be directly comparable. See Methods Description for more details.

Methods description

DLM

This is a penalized dynamic linear model fit with the Sibregresr package. The coefficients are the:

  1. log-transformed total count of jacks at Bonneville Dam in the previous year,
  2. log-transformed cumulative adult count at Bonneville Dam in the current year,
  3. and interaction between an exponential moving average of river discharge and the cumulative adult count.

The prediction interval is based on the standard deviation (in log-space) of forecasts from a 15-year retrospective. In other words, the root mean square error of the forecast error in log space from a 15-year retrospective is used as the standard deviation in a lognormal prediction interval.

ARIMA

This is an ensemble of ARIMA models fit with the SalmonForecasting package (see README at the linked page for details). The covariates are the same as those described above for the DLM. Prediction intervals are the weighted average of the prediction intervals provided by the forecast::forecast() function in R.

Joint likelihood

This is a version of a model that has been used for this purpose of in-season forecasting for several years. The proportion of the run that is complete on a given day is modeled with autoregressive (order 1) errors and an effect of the river discharge covariate. The pre-season forecast is generated using an age-specific sibling regression. I have not yet implemented a retrospective assessment of performance because, in this version, the pre-season forecasts and prediction uncertainty need to be provided, and I have not pulled in the past 15 years’ forecasts.

10 year average run timing

This method takes the 10-year average of the proportion of the run that was complete on a given day and uses it to expand the cumulative counts to date. Performance and prediction intervals are based on a 15-year retrospective as described above for the DLM but assuming a normal prediction distribution for the proportion complete in logit space.

Average timing info
10-year average

Prediction

Date Daily counts Cumulative count 10 Days Early 9 Days Early 8 Days Early 7 Days Early 6 Days Early 5 Days Early 4 Days Early 3 Days Early 2 Days Early 1 Days Early 10yr Average 1 Days Late 2 Days Late 3 Days Late 4 Days Late 5 Days Late 6 Days Late 7 Days Late 8 Days Late 9 Days Late 10 Days Late
15-Jun 1,432 146,061 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 146,134 148,644 151,146 153,570 156,031 158,447 161,076 163,673 166,200 168,976 171,422
14-Jun 1,670 144,629 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 144,701 147,187 149,664 152,064 154,502 156,893 159,496 162,069 164,571 167,319 169,741 172,267
13-Jun 1,533 142,959 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 143,031 145,487 147,936 150,308 152,718 155,082 157,655 160,197 162,670 165,387 167,781 170,278 172,866
12-Jun 1,894 141,426 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 141,497 143,927 146,350 148,697 151,080 153,419 155,964 158,479 160,926 163,613 165,982 168,452 171,013 173,466
11-Jun 1,956 139,532 NA NA NA NA NA NA 139,602 142,000 144,390 146,705 149,057 151,364 153,875 156,357 158,771 161,422 163,759 166,196 168,722 171,143 173,603
10-Jun 2,290 137,576 NA NA NA NA NA 137,645 140,009 142,366 144,649 146,967 149,242 151,718 154,165 156,545 159,159 161,463 163,866 166,357 168,744 171,169 173,690
09-Jun 2,215 135,286 NA NA NA NA 135,354 137,678 139,996 142,241 144,521 146,758 149,193 151,599 153,940 156,510 158,776 161,139 163,588 165,935 168,320 170,799 173,075
08-Jun 1,838 133,071 NA NA NA 133,138 135,424 137,704 139,912 142,155 144,355 146,750 149,117 151,419 153,948 156,176 158,500 160,910 163,218 165,564 168,002 170,241 172,731
07-Jun 2,010 131,233 NA NA 131,299 133,554 135,802 137,980 140,191 142,361 144,723 147,057 149,328 151,821 154,019 156,311 158,687 160,964 163,277 165,682 167,889 170,345 172,993
06-Jun 2,054 129,223 NA 129,288 131,508 133,722 135,866 138,044 140,181 142,507 144,805 147,041 149,496 151,660 153,917 156,257 158,498 160,777 163,144 165,318 167,736 170,343 172,907
05-Jun 1,457 127,169 127,233 129,418 131,596 133,707 135,850 137,953 140,242 142,503 144,703 147,120 149,249 151,471 153,773 155,979 158,221 160,551 162,690 165,070 167,635 170,159 173,065
04-Jun 1,367 125,712 127,935 130,089 132,175 134,293 136,372 138,635 140,871 143,045 145,434 147,539 149,735 152,011 154,192 156,408 158,711 160,826 163,179 165,715 168,209 171,083 173,996
03-Jun 1,172 124,345 128,674 130,738 132,833 134,889 137,127 139,339 141,490 143,853 145,935 148,107 150,358 152,515 154,707 156,986 159,078 161,405 163,913 166,380 169,222 172,104 175,016
02-Jun 1,131 123,173 129,505 131,581 133,618 135,835 138,025 140,156 142,497 144,560 146,711 148,941 151,078 153,249 155,506 157,578 159,883 162,368 164,812 167,627 170,481 173,367 177,156
01-Jun 1,413 122,042 130,373 132,391 134,587 136,758 138,869 141,188 143,232 145,364 147,573 149,691 151,842 154,078 156,131 158,415 160,877 163,298 166,088 168,916 171,775 175,529 179,758
31-May 1,523 120,629 130,858 133,029 135,175 137,262 139,554 141,574 143,681 145,865 147,958 150,084 152,294 154,324 156,581 159,014 161,408 164,165 166,960 169,786 173,497 177,677 181,869
30-May 1,076 119,106 131,350 133,468 135,529 137,792 139,786 141,867 144,023 146,089 148,189 150,371 152,375 154,604 157,007 159,370 162,092 164,852 167,642 171,307 175,434 179,573 184,351
29-May 1,113 118,030 132,262 134,304 136,547 138,524 140,585 142,722 144,770 146,850 149,013 150,999 153,207 155,588 157,930 160,628 163,363 166,128 169,759 173,849 177,951 182,686 187,136
28-May 1,166 116,917 133,038 135,259 137,217 139,259 141,376 143,405 145,466 147,608 149,575 151,763 154,121 156,441 159,113 161,823 164,561 168,158 172,209 176,273 180,963 185,372 189,211
27-May 1,216 115,751 133,910 135,849 137,871 139,966 141,974 144,015 146,136 148,083 150,249 152,584 154,881 157,527 160,209 162,920 166,481 170,492 174,515 179,158 183,523 187,324 191,668
26-May 1,678 114,535 134,422 136,422 138,496 140,483 142,502 144,600 146,527 148,671 150,981 153,254 155,872 158,526 161,209 164,732 168,701 172,681 177,276 181,595 185,356 189,655 195,249
25-May 1,332 112,857 134,424 136,467 138,425 140,414 142,482 144,381 146,493 148,769 151,008 153,588 156,203 158,847 162,319 166,229 170,151 174,679 178,934 182,641 186,876 192,388 199,427
24-May 1,292 111,525 134,856 136,791 138,757 140,800 142,677 144,764 147,013 149,226 151,775 154,360 156,972 160,403 164,267 168,143 172,617 176,823 180,485 184,670 190,118 197,073 204,207
23-May 1,125 110,233 135,206 137,150 139,169 141,024 143,087 145,310 147,497 150,017 152,571 155,153 158,545 162,364 166,195 170,617 174,774 178,394 182,531 187,915 194,790 201,841 208,928
22-May 1,261 109,108 135,750 137,749 139,584 141,626 143,827 145,992 148,486 151,014 153,570 156,927 160,707 164,499 168,876 172,990 176,574 180,668 185,997 192,802 199,781 206,796 214,755
21-May 1,389 107,847 136,157 137,971 139,990 142,165 144,305 146,770 149,269 151,795 155,113 158,850 162,598 166,924 170,991 174,533 178,580 183,848 190,574 197,473 204,406 212,273 222,224
20-May 1,629 106,458 136,194 138,187 140,334 142,446 144,880 147,347 149,840 153,115 156,804 160,504 164,775 168,789 172,285 176,280 181,480 188,119 194,929 201,773 209,539 219,362 232,178
19-May 2,804 104,829 136,072 138,187 140,267 142,663 145,092 147,547 150,772 154,405 158,048 162,253 166,206 169,649 173,583 178,703 185,240 191,946 198,686 206,332 216,005 228,626 242,321
18-May 2,169 102,025 134,490 136,515 138,847 141,211 143,601 146,740 150,275 153,820 157,913 161,760 165,111 168,940 173,923 180,286 186,812 193,371 200,813 210,228 222,510 235,840 250,591
17-May 2,522 99,856 133,612 135,895 138,209 140,548 143,620 147,080 150,550 154,556 158,321 161,601 165,348 170,225 176,453 182,841 189,260 196,544 205,758 217,780 230,826 245,263 261,723
16-May 2,234 97,334 132,463 134,718 136,998 139,993 143,365 146,748 150,653 154,323 157,519 161,172 165,926 171,996 178,223 184,480 191,580 200,562 212,280 224,996 239,069 255,113 275,776
15-May 2,271 95,100 131,626 133,854 136,780 140,075 143,380 147,195 150,781 153,904 157,473 162,118 168,049 174,132 180,246 187,183 195,958 207,407 219,832 233,582 249,258 269,447 292,438
14-May 1,562 92,829 130,657 133,513 136,730 139,956 143,680 147,180 150,229 153,712 158,246 164,036 169,974 175,942 182,713 191,279 202,454 214,582 228,004 243,305 263,012 285,454 315,253
13-May 1,367 91,267 131,267 134,429 137,601 141,262 144,704 147,701 151,126 155,584 161,275 167,114 172,981 179,639 188,060 199,048 210,972 224,167 239,211 258,587 280,651 309,948 345,558
12-May 2,030 89,900 132,416 135,540 139,146 142,536 145,489 148,862 153,253 158,860 164,611 170,390 176,948 185,244 196,066 207,812 220,810 235,629 254,714 276,448 305,306 340,383 389,509
11-May 2,958 87,870 132,479 136,004 139,318 142,203 145,501 149,793 155,273 160,894 166,543 172,952 181,061 191,639 203,119 215,824 230,308 248,962 270,205 298,412 332,697 380,713 440,487
10-May 4,275 84,912 131,426 134,628 137,416 140,603 144,750 150,046 155,478 160,936 167,130 174,965 185,188 196,281 208,558 222,555 240,581 261,109 288,366 321,497 367,897 425,658 492,251
09-May 4,579 80,637 127,850 130,498 133,524 137,463 142,491 147,650 152,834 158,716 166,157 175,864 186,399 198,058 211,350 228,469 247,963 273,848 305,311 349,375 404,228 467,468 549,633
08-May 5,804 76,058 123,088 125,942 129,657 134,400 139,265 144,155 149,703 156,721 165,878 175,815 186,811 199,349 215,495 233,883 258,297 287,974 329,536 381,274 440,922 518,422 621,539
07-May 6,690 70,254 116,331 119,763 124,144 128,638 133,155 138,279 144,762 153,220 162,398 172,556 184,136 199,051 216,035 238,587 265,998 304,389 352,179 407,275 478,861 574,110 702,917
06-May 5,287 63,564 108,358 112,322 116,388 120,475 125,111 130,977 138,629 146,934 156,124 166,602 180,096 195,463 215,867 240,668 275,403 318,642 368,492 433,261 519,440 635,981 731,317
05-May 5,481 58,277 102,980 106,708 110,454 114,705 120,083 127,099 134,712 143,138 152,744 165,116 179,205 197,912 220,650 252,496 292,139 337,843 397,224 476,235 583,083 670,489 773,223
04-May 6,975 52,796 96,672 100,066 103,917 108,789 115,145 122,042 129,676 138,379 149,587 162,351 179,298 199,898 228,749 264,663 306,068 359,865 431,444 528,243 607,429 700,500 784,172
03-May 7,706 45,821 86,846 90,188 94,416 99,933 105,919 112,544 120,097 129,825 140,902 155,611 173,489 198,528 229,698 265,633 312,322 374,445 458,456 527,180 607,956 680,573 770,707
02-May 5,085 38,115 75,021 78,538 83,127 88,106 93,617 99,900 107,991 117,206 129,441 144,312 165,140 191,068 220,960 259,797 311,472 381,354 438,521 505,712 566,117 641,093 734,667
01-May 4,182 33,030 68,060 72,036 76,352 81,127 86,572 93,584 101,569 112,172 125,059 143,109 165,577 191,481 225,137 269,918 330,477 380,017 438,244 490,590 555,563 636,654 767,755
30-Apr 4,689 28,848 62,916 66,685 70,856 75,611 81,735 88,709 97,969 109,225 124,989 144,613 167,237 196,632 235,743 288,635 331,902 382,757 428,475 485,222 556,046 670,548 793,579
29-Apr 2,635 24,159 55,846 59,339 63,321 68,450 74,290 82,045 91,472 104,673 121,108 140,054 164,671 197,425 241,720 277,954 320,543 358,830 406,353 465,665 561,556 664,590 835,338
28-Apr 2,927 21,524 52,867 56,415 60,984 66,188 73,097 81,495 93,257 107,898 124,779 146,711 175,892 215,355 247,638 285,582 319,693 362,033 414,876 500,308 592,103 744,229 950,176
27-Apr 3,737 18,597 48,743 52,691 57,187 63,156 70,413 80,575 93,226 107,810 126,760 151,973 186,070 213,962 246,746 276,219 312,801 358,458 432,272 511,585 643,023 820,963 1,027,909
26-Apr 3,165 14,860 42,103 45,695 50,465 56,263 64,384 74,492 86,146 101,288 121,435 148,680 170,967 197,163 220,714 249,945 286,427 345,409 408,783 513,810 655,994 821,354 1,007,434
25-Apr 2,106 11,695 35,963 39,717 44,280 50,671 58,626 67,798 79,715 95,571 117,013 134,553 155,170 173,704 196,709 225,421 271,841 321,718 404,374 516,275 646,416 792,863 943,895
24-Apr 1,906 9,589 32,565 36,306 41,546 48,069 55,589 65,360 78,360 95,941 110,323 127,227 142,424 161,287 184,828 222,888 263,784 331,556 423,306 530,011 650,087 773,921 930,933
23-Apr 1,826 7,683 29,090 33,288 38,514 44,540 52,368 62,785 76,871 88,394 101,938 114,115 129,228 148,090 178,585 211,352 265,653 339,166 424,661 520,869 620,090 745,892 823,604
22-Apr 1,088 5,857 25,377 29,361 33,954 39,922 47,863 58,601 67,386 77,711 86,993 98,515 112,894 136,141 161,120 202,516 258,557 323,733 397,076 472,714 568,618 627,860 702,942
21-Apr 677 4,769 23,907 27,647 32,506 38,972 47,716 54,868 63,275 70,833 80,214 91,923 110,852 131,190 164,896 210,527 263,596 323,315 384,903 462,991 511,228 572,363 683,820
20-Apr 858 4,092 23,722 27,892 33,439 40,942 47,079 54,293 60,778 68,827 78,873 95,115 112,567 141,488 180,641 226,176 277,417 330,262 397,265 438,655 491,111 586,746 688,157
19-Apr 536 3,234 22,043 26,428 32,357 37,208 42,909 48,034 54,396 62,335 75,172 88,964 111,821 142,765 178,752 219,249 261,014 313,968 346,679 388,136 463,718 543,866 638,166
18-Apr 431 2,698 22,048 26,994 31,041 35,797 40,073 45,380 52,004 62,713 74,219 93,288 119,103 149,126 182,911 217,754 261,931 289,221 323,807 386,862 453,726 532,397 623,225
17-Apr 431 2,267 22,682 26,082 30,079 33,671 38,131 43,696 52,695 62,363 78,385 100,077 125,304 153,691 182,968 220,088 243,018 272,079 325,062 381,245 447,347 523,666 604,258
16-Apr 219 1,836 21,124 24,360 27,270 30,881 35,389 42,676 50,506 63,483 81,050 101,481 124,472 148,182 178,245 196,816 220,352 263,261 308,763 362,298 424,107 489,377 547,859
15-Apr 164 1,617 21,454 24,017 27,198 31,168 37,586 44,482 55,911 71,382 89,376 109,625 130,507 156,984 173,340 194,068 231,859 271,933 319,083 373,519 431,004 482,509 531,831
14-Apr 117 1,453 21,581 24,439 28,007 33,774 39,971 50,240 64,143 80,311 98,506 117,271 141,062 155,759 174,385 208,343 244,353 286,721 335,636 387,290 433,572 477,892 533,827
13-Apr 130 1,336 22,471 25,751 31,054 36,752 46,194 58,978 73,844 90,574 107,828 129,703 143,217 160,343 191,567 224,677 263,633 308,610 356,104 398,660 439,411 490,842 550,547
12-Apr 208 1,206 23,246 28,032 33,176 41,699 53,239 66,659 81,761 97,335 117,083 129,281 144,741 172,926 202,815 237,980 278,580 321,454 359,868 396,654 443,080 496,976 562,050
11-Apr 191 998 23,198 27,454 34,508 44,057 55,162 67,659 80,548 96,889 106,984 119,777 143,102 167,835 196,935 230,533 266,012 297,801 328,242 366,662 411,262 465,113 521,510
10-Apr 96 807 22,200 27,903 35,625 44,605 54,711 65,132 78,346 86,509 96,854 115,714 135,714 159,245 186,413 215,102 240,807 265,422 296,489 332,553 376,098 421,702 481,343
09-Apr 128 711 24,584 31,387 39,299 48,202 57,384 69,026 76,218 85,332 101,949 119,570 140,302 164,238 189,514 212,161 233,848 261,219 292,993 331,358 371,537 424,083 490,260
08-Apr 62 583 25,736 32,224 39,525 47,054 56,600 62,497 69,970 83,595 98,044 115,043 134,670 155,396 173,966 191,749 214,192 240,246 271,704 304,650 347,736 402,000 445,155
07-Apr 41 521 28,797 35,321 42,050 50,580 55,850 62,529 74,705 87,617 102,809 120,348 138,870 155,465 171,357 191,414 214,697 242,809 272,251 310,756 359,248 397,815 480,958
06-Apr 35 480 32,542 38,740 46,600 51,455 57,608 68,826 80,722 94,718 110,878 127,942 143,231 157,872 176,350 197,801 223,702 250,826 286,301 330,977 366,509 443,109 520,662
05-Apr 53 445 35,916 43,202 47,703 53,408 63,808 74,836 87,812 102,793 118,613 132,787 146,361 163,491 183,378 207,390 232,537 265,425 306,844 339,784 410,799 482,697 560,141
04-Apr 52 392 38,057 42,022 47,047 56,208 65,923 77,353 90,550 104,486 116,972 128,929 144,019 161,538 182,690 204,842 233,812 270,298 299,315 361,873 425,208 493,428 548,226
03-Apr 52 340 36,447 40,806 48,752 57,178 67,092 78,538 90,625 101,455 111,826 124,915 140,109 158,455 177,669 202,796 234,442 259,610 313,869 368,802 427,973 475,502 513,501
02-Apr 49 288 34,565 41,296 48,433 56,831 66,527 76,765 85,939 94,723 105,810 118,681 134,221 150,496 171,781 198,586 219,905 265,866 312,397 362,518 402,778 434,965 474,359
01-Apr 69 239 34,270 40,193 47,162 55,208 63,704 71,317 78,607 87,808 98,489 111,385 124,891 142,554 164,799 182,491 220,632 259,246 300,840 334,250 360,961 393,652 420,836
31-Mar 29 170 28,589 33,546 39,269 45,313 50,728 55,913 62,457 70,055 79,228 88,834 101,398 117,221 129,805 156,935 184,401 213,986 237,751 256,750 280,004 299,339 315,589
30-Mar 31 141 27,824 32,570 37,583 42,074 46,375 51,803 58,104 65,712 73,680 84,101 97,225 107,662 130,163 152,945 177,483 197,193 212,952 232,238 248,275 261,753 275,114
29-Mar 25 110 25,409 29,320 32,824 36,179 40,414 45,329 51,265 57,481 65,611 75,849 83,992 101,546 119,318 138,462 153,839 166,133 181,179 193,690 204,205 214,628 222,475
28-Mar 29 85 22,656 25,364 27,957 31,229 35,027 39,614 44,417 50,699 58,611 64,903 78,467 92,201 106,993 118,875 128,375 140,002 149,670 157,794 165,849 171,912 176,897
27-Mar 6 56 16,710 18,418 20,574 23,077 26,099 29,263 33,402 38,614 42,759 51,696 60,744 70,490 78,318 84,577 92,236 98,606 103,959 109,265 113,260 116,544 119,928
26-Mar 18 50 16,445 18,370 20,604 23,302 26,128 29,823 34,477 38,178 46,157 54,236 62,937 69,927 75,515 82,354 88,041 92,820 97,558 101,125 104,057 107,078 107,774
25-Mar 21 32 11,757 13,187 14,913 16,722 19,087 22,065 24,434 29,541 34,711 40,280 44,753 48,329 52,707 56,346 59,405 62,437 64,720 66,597 68,530 68,975 71,170
24-Mar 2 11 4,533 5,126 5,748 6,561 7,585 8,399 10,155 11,932 13,846 15,384 16,613 18,118 19,369 20,420 21,463 22,247 22,893 23,557 23,710 24,465 24,818
23-Mar 1 9 4,194 4,703 5,368 6,206 6,872 8,308 9,762 11,329 12,587 13,593 14,824 15,847 16,708 17,560 18,202 18,730 19,274 19,399 20,017 20,306 20,550
22-Mar 4 8 4,180 4,772 5,516 6,108 7,385 8,678 10,070 11,188 12,082 13,177 14,087 14,851 15,609 16,180 16,649 17,133 17,244 17,793 18,050 18,267 18,473
21-Mar 0 4 2,386 2,758 3,054 3,693 4,339 5,035 5,594 6,041 6,588 7,043 7,426 7,805 8,090 8,325 8,566 8,622 8,896 9,025 9,133 9,237 9,510
20-Mar 0 4 2,758 3,054 3,693 4,339 5,035 5,594 6,041 6,588 7,043 7,426 7,805 8,090 8,325 8,566 8,622 8,896 9,025 9,133 9,237 9,510 9,790
19-Mar 2 4 3,054 3,693 4,339 5,035 5,594 6,041 6,588 7,043 7,426 7,805 8,090 8,325 8,566 8,622 8,896 9,025 9,133 9,237 9,510 9,790 10,000
18-Mar 0 2 1,846 2,169 2,517 2,797 3,021 3,294 3,522 3,713 3,902 4,045 4,162 4,283 4,311 4,448 4,512 4,567 4,618 4,755 4,895 5,000 5,000
17-Mar 0 2 2,169 2,517 2,797 3,021 3,294 3,522 3,713 3,902 4,045 4,162 4,283 4,311 4,448 4,512 4,567 4,618 4,755 4,895 5,000 5,000 5,000
16-Mar 1 2 2,517 2,797 3,021 3,294 3,522 3,713 3,902 4,045 4,162 4,283 4,311 4,448 4,512 4,567 4,618 4,755 4,895 5,000 5,000 5,000 5,000
15-Mar 1 1 1,399 1,510 1,647 1,761 1,856 1,951 2,022 2,081 2,142 2,155 2,224 2,256 2,283 2,309 2,377 2,448 2,500 2,500 2,500 2,500 2,500
14-Mar 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
13-Mar 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
12-Mar 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
11-Mar 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
10-Mar 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 NA
09-Mar 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 NA NA
08-Mar 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 NA NA NA
07-Mar 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 NA NA NA NA
06-Mar 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 NA NA NA NA NA
05-Mar 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 NA NA NA NA NA NA
04-Mar 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
03-Mar 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
02-Mar 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
01-Mar 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA

Proportion complete

Date 10 Days Early 9 Days Early 8 Days Early 7 Days Early 6 Days Early 5 Days Early 4 Days Early 3 Days Early 2 Days Early 1 Days Early 10yr Average 1 Days Late 2 Days Late 3 Days Late 4 Days Late 5 Days Late 6 Days Late 7 Days Late 8 Days Late 9 Days Late 10 Days Late
15-Jun NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 1.00 0.98 0.97 0.95 0.94 0.92 0.91 0.89 0.88 0.86 0.85
14-Jun NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 1.00 0.98 0.97 0.95 0.94 0.92 0.91 0.89 0.88 0.86 0.85 0.84
13-Jun NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 1.00 0.98 0.97 0.95 0.94 0.92 0.91 0.89 0.88 0.86 0.85 0.84 0.83
12-Jun NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 1.00 0.98 0.97 0.95 0.94 0.92 0.91 0.89 0.88 0.86 0.85 0.84 0.83 0.82
11-Jun NA NA NA NA NA NA 1.00 0.98 0.97 0.95 0.94 0.92 0.91 0.89 0.88 0.86 0.85 0.84 0.83 0.82 0.80
10-Jun NA NA NA NA NA 1.00 0.98 0.97 0.95 0.94 0.92 0.91 0.89 0.88 0.86 0.85 0.84 0.83 0.82 0.80 0.79
09-Jun NA NA NA NA 1.00 0.98 0.97 0.95 0.94 0.92 0.91 0.89 0.88 0.86 0.85 0.84 0.83 0.82 0.80 0.79 0.78
08-Jun NA NA NA 1.00 0.98 0.97 0.95 0.94 0.92 0.91 0.89 0.88 0.86 0.85 0.84 0.83 0.82 0.80 0.79 0.78 0.77
07-Jun NA NA 1.00 0.98 0.97 0.95 0.94 0.92 0.91 0.89 0.88 0.86 0.85 0.84 0.83 0.82 0.80 0.79 0.78 0.77 0.76
06-Jun NA 1.00 0.98 0.97 0.95 0.94 0.92 0.91 0.89 0.88 0.86 0.85 0.84 0.83 0.82 0.80 0.79 0.78 0.77 0.76 0.75
05-Jun 1.00 0.98 0.97 0.95 0.94 0.92 0.91 0.89 0.88 0.86 0.85 0.84 0.83 0.82 0.80 0.79 0.78 0.77 0.76 0.75 0.73
04-Jun 0.98 0.97 0.95 0.94 0.92 0.91 0.89 0.88 0.86 0.85 0.84 0.83 0.82 0.80 0.79 0.78 0.77 0.76 0.75 0.73 0.72
03-Jun 0.97 0.95 0.94 0.92 0.91 0.89 0.88 0.86 0.85 0.84 0.83 0.82 0.80 0.79 0.78 0.77 0.76 0.75 0.73 0.72 0.71
02-Jun 0.95 0.94 0.92 0.91 0.89 0.88 0.86 0.85 0.84 0.83 0.82 0.80 0.79 0.78 0.77 0.76 0.75 0.73 0.72 0.71 0.70
01-Jun 0.94 0.92 0.91 0.89 0.88 0.86 0.85 0.84 0.83 0.82 0.80 0.79 0.78 0.77 0.76 0.75 0.73 0.72 0.71 0.70 0.68
31-May 0.92 0.91 0.89 0.88 0.86 0.85 0.84 0.83 0.82 0.80 0.79 0.78 0.77 0.76 0.75 0.73 0.72 0.71 0.70 0.68 0.66
30-May 0.91 0.89 0.88 0.86 0.85 0.84 0.83 0.82 0.80 0.79 0.78 0.77 0.76 0.75 0.73 0.72 0.71 0.70 0.68 0.66 0.65
29-May 0.89 0.88 0.86 0.85 0.84 0.83 0.82 0.80 0.79 0.78 0.77 0.76 0.75 0.73 0.72 0.71 0.70 0.68 0.66 0.65 0.63
28-May 0.88 0.86 0.85 0.84 0.83 0.82 0.80 0.79 0.78 0.77 0.76 0.75 0.73 0.72 0.71 0.70 0.68 0.66 0.65 0.63 0.62
27-May 0.86 0.85 0.84 0.83 0.82 0.80 0.79 0.78 0.77 0.76 0.75 0.73 0.72 0.71 0.70 0.68 0.66 0.65 0.63 0.62 0.60
26-May 0.85 0.84 0.83 0.82 0.80 0.79 0.78 0.77 0.76 0.75 0.73 0.72 0.71 0.70 0.68 0.66 0.65 0.63 0.62 0.60 0.59
25-May 0.84 0.83 0.82 0.80 0.79 0.78 0.77 0.76 0.75 0.73 0.72 0.71 0.70 0.68 0.66 0.65 0.63 0.62 0.60 0.59 0.57
24-May 0.83 0.82 0.80 0.79 0.78 0.77 0.76 0.75 0.73 0.72 0.71 0.70 0.68 0.66 0.65 0.63 0.62 0.60 0.59 0.57 0.55
23-May 0.82 0.80 0.79 0.78 0.77 0.76 0.75 0.73 0.72 0.71 0.70 0.68 0.66 0.65 0.63 0.62 0.60 0.59 0.57 0.55 0.53
22-May 0.80 0.79 0.78 0.77 0.76 0.75 0.73 0.72 0.71 0.70 0.68 0.66 0.65 0.63 0.62 0.60 0.59 0.57 0.55 0.53 0.51
21-May 0.79 0.78 0.77 0.76 0.75 0.73 0.72 0.71 0.70 0.68 0.66 0.65 0.63 0.62 0.60 0.59 0.57 0.55 0.53 0.51 0.49
20-May 0.78 0.77 0.76 0.75 0.73 0.72 0.71 0.70 0.68 0.66 0.65 0.63 0.62 0.60 0.59 0.57 0.55 0.53 0.51 0.49 0.46
19-May 0.77 0.76 0.75 0.73 0.72 0.71 0.70 0.68 0.66 0.65 0.63 0.62 0.60 0.59 0.57 0.55 0.53 0.51 0.49 0.46 0.43
18-May 0.76 0.75 0.73 0.72 0.71 0.70 0.68 0.66 0.65 0.63 0.62 0.60 0.59 0.57 0.55 0.53 0.51 0.49 0.46 0.43 0.41
17-May 0.75 0.73 0.72 0.71 0.70 0.68 0.66 0.65 0.63 0.62 0.60 0.59 0.57 0.55 0.53 0.51 0.49 0.46 0.43 0.41 0.38
16-May 0.73 0.72 0.71 0.70 0.68 0.66 0.65 0.63 0.62 0.60 0.59 0.57 0.55 0.53 0.51 0.49 0.46 0.43 0.41 0.38 0.35
15-May 0.72 0.71 0.70 0.68 0.66 0.65 0.63 0.62 0.60 0.59 0.57 0.55 0.53 0.51 0.49 0.46 0.43 0.41 0.38 0.35 0.33
14-May 0.71 0.70 0.68 0.66 0.65 0.63 0.62 0.60 0.59 0.57 0.55 0.53 0.51 0.49 0.46 0.43 0.41 0.38 0.35 0.33 0.29
13-May 0.70 0.68 0.66 0.65 0.63 0.62 0.60 0.59 0.57 0.55 0.53 0.51 0.49 0.46 0.43 0.41 0.38 0.35 0.33 0.29 0.26
12-May 0.68 0.66 0.65 0.63 0.62 0.60 0.59 0.57 0.55 0.53 0.51 0.49 0.46 0.43 0.41 0.38 0.35 0.33 0.29 0.26 0.23
11-May 0.66 0.65 0.63 0.62 0.60 0.59 0.57 0.55 0.53 0.51 0.49 0.46 0.43 0.41 0.38 0.35 0.33 0.29 0.26 0.23 0.20
10-May 0.65 0.63 0.62 0.60 0.59 0.57 0.55 0.53 0.51 0.49 0.46 0.43 0.41 0.38 0.35 0.33 0.29 0.26 0.23 0.20 0.17
09-May 0.63 0.62 0.60 0.59 0.57 0.55 0.53 0.51 0.49 0.46 0.43 0.41 0.38 0.35 0.33 0.29 0.26 0.23 0.20 0.17 0.15
08-May 0.62 0.60 0.59 0.57 0.55 0.53 0.51 0.49 0.46 0.43 0.41 0.38 0.35 0.33 0.29 0.26 0.23 0.20 0.17 0.15 0.12
07-May 0.60 0.59 0.57 0.55 0.53 0.51 0.49 0.46 0.43 0.41 0.38 0.35 0.33 0.29 0.26 0.23 0.20 0.17 0.15 0.12 0.10
06-May 0.59 0.57 0.55 0.53 0.51 0.49 0.46 0.43 0.41 0.38 0.35 0.33 0.29 0.26 0.23 0.20 0.17 0.15 0.12 0.10 0.09
05-May 0.57 0.55 0.53 0.51 0.49 0.46 0.43 0.41 0.38 0.35 0.33 0.29 0.26 0.23 0.20 0.17 0.15 0.12 0.10 0.09 0.08
04-May 0.55 0.53 0.51 0.49 0.46 0.43 0.41 0.38 0.35 0.33 0.29 0.26 0.23 0.20 0.17 0.15 0.12 0.10 0.09 0.08 0.07
03-May 0.53 0.51 0.49 0.46 0.43 0.41 0.38 0.35 0.33 0.29 0.26 0.23 0.20 0.17 0.15 0.12 0.10 0.09 0.08 0.07 0.06
02-May 0.51 0.49 0.46 0.43 0.41 0.38 0.35 0.33 0.29 0.26 0.23 0.20 0.17 0.15 0.12 0.10 0.09 0.08 0.07 0.06 0.05
01-May 0.49 0.46 0.43 0.41 0.38 0.35 0.33 0.29 0.26 0.23 0.20 0.17 0.15 0.12 0.10 0.09 0.08 0.07 0.06 0.05 0.04
30-Apr 0.46 0.43 0.41 0.38 0.35 0.33 0.29 0.26 0.23 0.20 0.17 0.15 0.12 0.10 0.09 0.08 0.07 0.06 0.05 0.04 0.04
29-Apr 0.43 0.41 0.38 0.35 0.33 0.29 0.26 0.23 0.20 0.17 0.15 0.12 0.10 0.09 0.08 0.07 0.06 0.05 0.04 0.04 0.03
28-Apr 0.41 0.38 0.35 0.33 0.29 0.26 0.23 0.20 0.17 0.15 0.12 0.10 0.09 0.08 0.07 0.06 0.05 0.04 0.04 0.03 0.02
27-Apr 0.38 0.35 0.33 0.29 0.26 0.23 0.20 0.17 0.15 0.12 0.10 0.09 0.08 0.07 0.06 0.05 0.04 0.04 0.03 0.02 0.02
26-Apr 0.35 0.33 0.29 0.26 0.23 0.20 0.17 0.15 0.12 0.10 0.09 0.08 0.07 0.06 0.05 0.04 0.04 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.01
25-Apr 0.33 0.29 0.26 0.23 0.20 0.17 0.15 0.12 0.10 0.09 0.08 0.07 0.06 0.05 0.04 0.04 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.01
24-Apr 0.29 0.26 0.23 0.20 0.17 0.15 0.12 0.10 0.09 0.08 0.07 0.06 0.05 0.04 0.04 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.01
23-Apr 0.26 0.23 0.20 0.17 0.15 0.12 0.10 0.09 0.08 0.07 0.06 0.05 0.04 0.04 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01
22-Apr 0.23 0.20 0.17 0.15 0.12 0.10 0.09 0.08 0.07 0.06 0.05 0.04 0.04 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01
21-Apr 0.20 0.17 0.15 0.12 0.10 0.09 0.08 0.07 0.06 0.05 0.04 0.04 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01
20-Apr 0.17 0.15 0.12 0.10 0.09 0.08 0.07 0.06 0.05 0.04 0.04 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01
19-Apr 0.15 0.12 0.10 0.09 0.08 0.07 0.06 0.05 0.04 0.04 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01
18-Apr 0.12 0.10 0.09 0.08 0.07 0.06 0.05 0.04 0.04 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.00
17-Apr 0.10 0.09 0.08 0.07 0.06 0.05 0.04 0.04 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00
16-Apr 0.09 0.08 0.07 0.06 0.05 0.04 0.04 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00
15-Apr 0.08 0.07 0.06 0.05 0.04 0.04 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
14-Apr 0.07 0.06 0.05 0.04 0.04 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
13-Apr 0.06 0.05 0.04 0.04 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
12-Apr 0.05 0.04 0.04 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
11-Apr 0.04 0.04 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
10-Apr 0.04 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
09-Apr 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
08-Apr 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
07-Apr 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
06-Apr 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
05-Apr 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
04-Apr 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
03-Apr 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
02-Apr 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
01-Apr 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
31-Mar 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
30-Mar 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
29-Mar 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
28-Mar 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
27-Mar 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
26-Mar 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
25-Mar 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
24-Mar 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
23-Mar 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
22-Mar 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
21-Mar 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
20-Mar 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
19-Mar 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
18-Mar 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
17-Mar 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
16-Mar 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
15-Mar 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
14-Mar 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
13-Mar 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
12-Mar 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
11-Mar 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
10-Mar 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 NA
09-Mar 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 NA NA
08-Mar 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 NA NA NA
07-Mar 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 NA NA NA NA
06-Mar 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 NA NA NA NA NA
05-Mar 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 NA NA NA NA NA NA
04-Mar 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
03-Mar 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
02-Mar 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
01-Mar 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
5-year average

Prediction

Date Daily counts Cumulative count 10 Days Early 9 Days Early 8 Days Early 7 Days Early 6 Days Early 5 Days Early 4 Days Early 3 Days Early 2 Days Early 1 Days Early 5yr Average 1 Days Late 2 Days Late 3 Days Late 4 Days Late 5 Days Late 6 Days Late 7 Days Late 8 Days Late 9 Days Late 10 Days Late
15-Jun 1,432 146,061 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 146,134 148,667 151,280 153,893 156,481 158,734 161,387 164,048 166,630 169,634 172,242
14-Jun 1,670 144,629 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 144,701 147,209 149,797 152,385 154,947 157,178 159,805 162,440 164,996 167,971 170,554 173,438
13-Jun 1,533 142,959 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 143,031 145,509 148,068 150,625 153,158 155,363 157,959 160,564 163,091 166,032 168,584 171,436 174,117
12-Jun 1,894 141,426 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 141,497 143,949 146,480 149,010 151,516 153,697 156,266 158,842 161,342 164,251 166,776 169,597 172,250 174,647
11-Jun 1,956 139,532 NA NA NA NA NA NA 139,602 142,021 144,518 147,014 149,486 151,638 154,173 156,715 159,181 162,052 164,543 167,326 169,943 172,308 174,766
10-Jun 2,290 137,576 NA NA NA NA NA 137,645 140,030 142,492 144,953 147,391 149,513 152,012 154,518 156,950 159,780 162,236 164,980 167,560 169,892 172,316 174,715
09-Jun 2,215 135,286 NA NA NA NA 135,354 137,699 140,120 142,541 144,938 147,024 149,481 151,946 154,338 157,120 159,536 162,234 164,771 167,064 169,448 171,807 174,061
08-Jun 1,838 133,071 NA NA NA 133,138 135,445 137,826 140,207 142,565 144,617 147,034 149,458 151,811 154,548 156,924 159,578 162,074 164,329 166,674 168,994 171,211 173,668
07-Jun 2,010 131,233 NA NA 131,299 133,574 135,923 138,270 140,595 142,619 145,003 147,394 149,714 152,413 154,756 157,374 159,835 162,059 164,371 166,660 168,847 171,270 173,693
06-Jun 2,054 129,223 NA 129,288 131,528 133,841 136,152 138,442 140,435 142,782 145,136 147,421 150,079 152,386 154,963 157,387 159,577 161,854 164,108 166,260 168,647 171,033 173,239
05-Jun 1,457 127,169 127,233 129,438 131,713 133,988 136,241 138,203 140,513 142,829 145,077 147,693 149,964 152,500 154,885 157,041 159,281 161,499 163,618 165,966 168,314 170,486 173,065
04-Jun 1,367 125,712 127,955 130,204 132,453 134,681 136,619 138,903 141,193 143,415 146,001 148,246 150,753 153,111 155,241 157,456 159,649 161,743 164,064 166,386 168,532 171,082 173,586
03-Jun 1,172 124,345 128,788 131,013 133,216 135,134 137,392 139,658 141,856 144,414 146,634 149,114 151,446 153,553 155,744 157,913 159,984 162,280 164,577 166,700 169,222 171,698 174,043
02-Jun 1,131 123,173 129,778 131,960 133,860 136,097 138,341 140,519 143,052 145,252 147,708 150,018 152,106 154,276 156,424 158,476 160,751 163,025 165,129 167,627 170,080 172,402 175,664
01-Jun 1,413 122,042 130,749 132,631 134,848 137,071 139,228 141,739 143,918 146,352 148,641 150,709 152,860 154,988 157,021 159,275 161,528 163,612 166,088 168,518 170,819 174,051 176,677
31-May 1,523 120,629 131,095 133,286 135,484 137,616 140,098 142,252 144,658 146,920 148,964 151,090 153,194 155,203 157,431 159,658 161,718 164,165 166,567 168,842 172,036 174,632 177,038
30-May 1,076 119,106 131,604 133,774 135,879 138,329 140,456 142,831 145,065 147,084 149,182 151,259 153,244 155,443 157,643 159,676 162,092 164,464 166,710 169,864 172,427 174,803 177,591
29-May 1,113 118,030 132,565 134,651 137,079 139,187 141,541 143,754 145,755 147,834 149,893 151,859 154,039 156,218 158,234 160,628 162,978 165,204 168,330 170,869 173,224 175,987 178,789
28-May 1,166 116,917 133,382 135,787 137,874 140,206 142,399 144,381 146,440 148,479 150,427 152,586 154,745 156,742 159,113 161,442 163,646 166,742 169,258 171,590 174,328 177,103 180,288
27-May 1,216 115,751 134,433 136,499 138,808 140,979 142,941 144,980 146,999 148,927 151,064 153,202 155,178 157,526 159,832 162,014 165,079 167,570 169,879 172,589 175,337 178,490 182,444
26-May 1,678 114,535 135,065 137,350 139,498 141,439 143,457 145,454 147,363 149,477 151,593 153,548 155,871 158,152 160,312 163,345 165,810 168,094 170,776 173,495 176,615 180,527 185,647
25-May 1,332 112,857 135,337 137,454 139,367 141,355 143,323 145,204 147,288 149,372 151,299 153,588 155,835 157,963 160,952 163,380 165,632 168,274 170,953 174,027 177,882 182,927 189,909
24-May 1,292 111,525 135,832 137,722 139,687 141,632 143,490 145,549 147,609 149,513 151,775 153,996 156,099 159,053 161,452 163,677 166,288 168,935 171,973 175,783 180,768 187,668 195,193
23-May 1,125 110,233 136,126 138,069 139,991 141,828 143,863 145,899 147,781 150,017 152,212 154,291 157,210 159,582 161,781 164,361 166,978 169,981 173,747 178,674 185,494 192,931 201,115
22-May 1,261 109,108 136,659 138,562 140,380 142,395 144,410 146,273 148,486 150,659 152,716 155,605 157,953 160,130 162,684 165,274 168,246 171,973 176,850 183,601 190,962 199,063 208,881
21-May 1,389 107,847 136,961 138,758 140,749 142,741 144,582 146,770 148,917 150,951 153,807 156,128 158,279 160,804 163,364 166,302 169,986 174,806 181,479 188,755 196,762 206,467 219,184
20-May 1,629 106,458 136,971 138,936 140,902 142,720 144,879 147,000 149,007 151,826 154,117 156,240 158,733 161,260 164,160 167,796 172,555 179,141 186,324 194,228 203,808 216,361 233,672
19-May 2,804 104,829 136,810 138,746 140,536 142,662 144,750 146,727 149,503 151,758 153,850 156,304 158,792 161,648 165,229 169,915 176,400 183,473 191,256 200,689 213,050 230,096 249,325
18-May 2,169 102,025 135,035 136,777 138,846 140,878 142,802 145,504 147,699 149,734 152,123 154,545 157,324 160,809 165,370 171,682 178,566 186,140 195,321 207,351 223,941 242,656 263,215
17-May 2,522 99,856 133,869 135,895 137,883 139,766 142,411 144,559 146,551 148,889 151,259 153,980 157,391 161,854 168,032 174,770 182,183 191,169 202,943 219,180 237,497 257,619 274,443
16-May 2,234 97,334 132,462 134,401 136,236 138,814 140,908 142,850 145,129 147,439 150,091 153,415 157,766 163,788 170,355 177,581 186,340 197,817 213,645 231,499 251,113 267,511 281,650
15-May 2,271 95,100 131,316 133,109 135,628 137,674 139,571 141,798 144,055 146,646 149,894 154,145 160,029 166,445 173,506 182,063 193,277 208,741 226,186 245,349 261,371 275,185 296,115
14-May 1,562 92,829 129,931 132,389 134,386 136,238 138,411 140,615 143,144 146,315 150,464 156,207 162,471 169,362 177,716 188,662 203,756 220,784 239,490 255,130 268,614 289,044 317,166
13-May 1,367 91,267 130,161 132,125 133,946 136,082 138,249 140,735 143,853 147,932 153,579 159,737 166,512 174,725 185,487 200,328 217,069 235,460 250,837 264,094 284,180 311,829 346,645
12-May 2,030 89,900 130,146 131,940 134,044 136,178 138,627 141,698 145,716 151,278 157,344 164,018 172,108 182,709 197,327 213,818 231,934 247,080 260,139 279,924 307,158 341,453 399,456
11-May 2,958 87,870 128,960 131,017 133,103 135,497 138,499 142,426 147,863 153,791 160,315 168,222 178,583 192,872 208,990 226,696 241,501 254,264 273,603 300,223 333,743 390,436 444,368
10-May 4,275 84,912 126,607 128,622 130,936 133,836 137,632 142,885 148,614 154,918 162,559 172,571 186,379 201,955 219,065 233,371 245,705 264,393 290,116 322,508 377,292 429,409 501,875
09-May 4,579 80,637 122,147 124,344 127,098 130,702 135,691 141,132 147,119 154,375 163,883 176,995 191,787 208,036 221,622 233,335 251,081 275,510 306,271 358,297 407,790 476,607 567,543
08-May 5,804 76,058 117,283 119,881 123,280 127,986 133,118 138,764 145,609 154,577 166,945 180,896 196,223 209,037 220,085 236,824 259,865 288,879 337,951 384,633 449,543 535,315 658,256
07-May 6,690 70,254 110,733 113,873 118,219 122,960 128,175 134,497 142,781 154,205 167,092 181,249 193,085 203,290 218,752 240,035 266,835 312,162 355,282 415,238 494,465 608,025 768,517
06-May 5,287 63,564 103,029 106,962 111,251 115,970 121,690 129,185 139,521 151,181 163,989 174,698 183,932 197,921 217,177 241,425 282,436 321,450 375,697 447,379 550,125 695,334 828,129
05-May 5,481 58,277 98,065 101,997 106,324 111,568 118,440 127,916 138,606 150,349 160,168 168,633 181,459 199,113 221,344 258,944 294,713 344,448 410,168 504,368 637,499 759,248 969,463
04-May 6,975 52,796 92,404 96,324 101,075 107,300 115,885 125,570 136,209 145,104 152,773 164,392 180,386 200,527 234,590 266,995 312,052 371,592 456,932 577,542 687,840 878,284 1,050,852
03-May 7,706 45,821 83,598 87,722 93,125 100,575 108,981 118,214 125,934 132,590 142,674 156,555 174,035 203,598 231,722 270,826 322,500 396,565 501,241 596,968 762,252 912,022 1,136,888
02-May 5,085 38,115 72,969 77,463 83,661 90,653 98,333 104,755 110,291 118,680 130,226 144,766 169,358 192,751 225,280 268,263 329,872 416,944 496,572 634,059 758,641 945,690 1,211,029
01-May 4,182 33,030 67,129 72,500 78,559 85,214 90,779 95,577 102,846 112,853 125,453 146,763 167,036 195,225 232,473 285,863 361,319 430,324 549,468 657,429 819,524 1,049,463 1,341,907
30-Apr 4,689 28,848 63,320 68,612 74,425 79,285 83,476 89,825 98,564 109,569 128,181 145,887 170,507 203,039 249,670 315,572 375,839 479,899 574,191 715,762 916,588 1,172,005 1,442,102
29-Apr 2,635 24,159 57,460 62,328 66,398 69,908 75,224 82,543 91,759 107,346 122,175 142,792 170,037 209,088 264,278 314,750 401,895 480,861 599,421 767,605 981,506 1,207,700 1,445,334
28-Apr 2,927 21,524 55,530 59,156 62,283 67,020 73,540 81,751 95,638 108,849 127,218 151,491 186,283 235,454 280,420 358,061 428,414 534,043 683,883 874,454 1,075,977 1,287,692 1,550,786
27-Apr 3,737 18,597 51,112 53,813 57,906 63,540 70,634 82,633 94,047 109,918 130,890 160,951 203,435 242,287 309,369 370,155 461,420 590,883 755,539 929,658 1,112,582 1,339,898 1,570,125
26-Apr 3,165 14,860 43,000 46,270 50,772 56,440 66,028 75,149 87,830 104,588 128,608 162,555 193,600 247,202 295,774 368,699 472,147 603,716 742,846 889,013 1,070,650 1,254,614 1,496,047
25-Apr 2,106 11,695 36,415 39,958 44,419 51,965 59,143 69,124 82,312 101,216 127,933 152,366 194,551 232,777 290,171 371,586 475,132 584,629 699,664 842,615 987,396 1,177,407 1,433,788
24-Apr 1,906 9,589 32,762 36,420 42,607 48,493 56,676 67,490 82,990 104,895 124,928 159,517 190,860 237,917 304,672 389,571 479,351 573,670 690,879 809,589 965,383 1,175,596 1,384,000
23-Apr 1,826 7,683 29,181 34,138 38,854 45,411 54,075 66,494 84,045 100,096 127,810 152,923 190,627 244,112 312,137 384,071 459,642 553,554 648,667 773,495 941,924 1,108,903 1,254,130
22-Apr 1,088 5,857 26,025 29,619 34,618 41,223 50,690 64,070 76,307 97,434 116,578 145,321 186,095 237,952 292,789 350,400 421,992 494,500 589,660 718,059 845,353 956,064 1,077,898
21-Apr 677 4,769 24,117 28,187 33,565 41,274 52,169 62,132 79,334 94,922 118,326 151,526 193,750 238,401 285,310 343,602 402,642 480,124 584,672 688,319 778,465 877,667 999,322
20-Apr 858 4,092 24,186 28,801 35,415 44,763 53,312 68,072 81,447 101,529 130,015 166,245 204,558 244,808 294,825 345,483 411,967 501,673 590,607 667,955 753,075 857,460 941,754
19-Apr 536 3,234 22,762 27,989 35,377 42,133 53,799 64,370 80,240 102,754 131,387 161,667 193,477 233,007 273,043 325,587 396,483 466,770 527,900 595,172 677,670 744,289 841,208
18-Apr 431 2,698 23,350 29,514 35,150 44,882 53,701 66,941 85,724 109,611 134,872 161,410 194,389 227,789 271,624 330,771 389,408 440,407 496,529 565,354 620,931 701,787 777,607
17-Apr 431 2,267 24,799 29,535 37,713 45,122 56,248 72,029 92,101 113,327 135,625 163,335 191,400 228,233 277,931 327,201 370,052 417,209 475,040 521,739 589,678 653,386 721,631
16-Apr 219 1,836 23,920 30,543 36,544 45,554 58,335 74,591 91,781 109,840 132,282 155,011 184,841 225,091 264,994 299,698 337,890 384,725 422,546 477,569 529,165 584,435 633,786
15-Apr 164 1,617 26,899 32,185 40,120 51,377 65,694 80,833 96,738 116,503 136,522 162,793 198,242 233,385 263,950 297,586 338,835 372,145 420,604 466,045 514,723 558,187 614,583
14-Apr 117 1,453 28,921 36,051 46,166 59,031 72,635 86,927 104,687 122,675 146,282 178,135 209,714 237,180 267,404 304,470 334,401 377,945 418,778 462,519 501,575 552,251 621,281
13-Apr 130 1,336 33,148 42,449 54,278 66,786 79,927 96,258 112,797 134,503 163,791 192,828 218,081 245,872 279,953 307,474 347,512 385,057 425,275 461,186 507,782 571,253 649,099
12-Apr 208 1,206 38,318 48,996 60,288 72,150 86,891 101,821 121,415 147,854 174,064 196,861 221,947 252,712 277,555 313,697 347,589 383,894 416,310 458,372 515,667 585,938 641,900
11-Apr 191 998 40,546 49,890 59,706 71,905 84,260 100,475 122,353 144,043 162,908 183,668 209,126 229,685 259,593 287,640 317,683 344,509 379,316 426,730 484,881 531,191 572,494
10-Apr 96 807 40,342 48,279 58,144 68,134 81,246 98,937 116,476 131,730 148,517 169,103 185,727 209,912 232,590 256,884 278,576 306,721 345,061 392,083 429,530 462,928 521,935
09-Apr 128 711 42,536 51,227 60,029 71,581 87,167 102,620 116,060 130,849 148,987 163,633 184,941 204,922 226,325 245,437 270,234 304,013 345,441 378,434 407,859 459,846 513,336
08-Apr 62 583 42,005 49,222 58,694 71,475 84,146 95,166 107,293 122,165 134,175 151,646 168,030 185,580 201,251 221,584 249,282 283,252 310,305 334,433 377,061 420,921 464,900
07-Apr 41 521 43,987 52,452 63,874 75,197 85,045 95,883 109,173 119,906 135,519 150,161 165,845 179,849 198,020 222,772 253,129 277,305 298,867 336,962 376,157 415,460 509,514
06-Apr 35 480 48,325 58,847 69,279 78,353 88,337 100,582 110,470 124,855 138,344 152,793 165,696 182,437 205,241 233,209 255,483 275,348 310,444 346,556 382,765 469,418 551,433
05-Apr 53 445 54,556 64,228 72,639 81,896 93,248 102,415 115,751 128,256 141,652 153,614 169,134 190,275 216,204 236,854 255,270 287,808 321,286 354,855 435,190 511,224 631,420
04-Apr 52 392 56,578 63,988 72,142 82,142 90,217 101,965 112,981 124,781 135,318 148,990 167,613 190,454 208,644 224,867 253,530 283,021 312,592 383,358 450,337 556,217 636,377
03-Apr 52 340 55,500 62,572 71,245 78,249 88,439 97,993 108,229 117,368 129,226 145,379 165,190 180,967 195,038 219,898 245,477 271,125 332,505 390,598 482,433 551,960 605,278
02-Apr 49 288 53,002 60,349 66,282 74,913 83,006 91,676 99,417 109,462 123,144 139,926 153,290 165,209 186,267 207,933 229,659 281,651 330,860 408,650 467,542 512,706 579,061
01-Apr 69 239 50,081 55,005 62,167 68,884 76,078 82,503 90,838 102,193 116,119 127,209 137,100 154,575 172,556 190,585 233,731 274,568 339,122 387,995 425,475 480,540 537,648
31-Mar 29 170 39,125 44,219 48,997 54,114 58,684 64,613 72,689 82,595 90,483 97,519 109,949 122,739 135,563 166,252 195,299 241,217 275,980 302,639 341,807 382,427 416,014
30-Mar 31 141 36,676 40,638 44,883 48,673 53,591 60,289 68,505 75,048 80,883 91,193 101,801 112,437 137,892 161,983 200,068 228,901 251,013 283,499 317,190 345,047 352,500
29-Mar 25 110 31,704 35,015 37,972 41,808 47,034 53,444 58,548 63,101 71,144 79,419 87,717 107,575 126,370 156,081 178,575 195,825 221,169 247,453 269,186 275,000 275,000
28-Mar 29 85 27,057 29,342 32,306 36,345 41,297 45,242 48,760 54,975 61,369 67,781 83,126 97,650 120,608 137,990 151,320 170,904 191,214 208,007 212,500 212,500 212,500
27-Mar 6 56 19,331 21,284 23,945 27,208 29,806 32,124 36,219 40,432 44,656 54,765 64,334 79,460 90,911 99,693 112,595 125,976 137,040 140,000 140,000 140,000 140,000
26-Mar 18 50 19,004 21,379 24,293 26,613 28,682 32,338 36,100 39,871 48,898 57,441 70,946 81,171 89,012 100,531 112,479 122,357 125,000 125,000 125,000 125,000 125,000
25-Mar 21 32 13,683 15,547 17,032 18,357 20,696 23,104 25,518 31,295 36,762 45,406 51,949 56,967 64,340 71,986 78,309 80,000 80,000 80,000 80,000 80,000 80,000
24-Mar 2 11 5,344 5,855 6,310 7,114 7,942 8,772 10,758 12,637 15,608 17,858 19,583 22,117 24,745 26,919 27,500 27,500 27,500 27,500 27,500 27,500 27,500
23-Mar 1 9 4,790 5,163 5,821 6,498 7,177 8,802 10,339 12,770 14,611 16,022 18,096 20,246 22,024 22,500 22,500 22,500 22,500 22,500 22,500 22,500 22,500
22-Mar 4 8 4,589 5,174 5,776 6,379 7,824 9,191 11,351 12,987 14,242 16,085 17,997 19,577 20,000 20,000 20,000 20,000 20,000 20,000 20,000 20,000 20,000
21-Mar 0 4 2,587 2,888 3,190 3,912 4,595 5,676 6,494 7,121 8,043 8,998 9,789 10,000 10,000 10,000 10,000 10,000 10,000 10,000 10,000 10,000 10,000
20-Mar 0 4 2,888 3,190 3,912 4,595 5,676 6,494 7,121 8,043 8,998 9,789 10,000 10,000 10,000 10,000 10,000 10,000 10,000 10,000 10,000 10,000 10,000
19-Mar 2 4 3,190 3,912 4,595 5,676 6,494 7,121 8,043 8,998 9,789 10,000 10,000 10,000 10,000 10,000 10,000 10,000 10,000 10,000 10,000 10,000 10,000
18-Mar 0 2 1,956 2,298 2,838 3,247 3,560 4,021 4,499 4,894 5,000 5,000 5,000 5,000 5,000 5,000 5,000 5,000 5,000 5,000 5,000 5,000 5,000
17-Mar 0 2 2,298 2,838 3,247 3,560 4,021 4,499 4,894 5,000 5,000 5,000 5,000 5,000 5,000 5,000 5,000 5,000 5,000 5,000 5,000 5,000 5,000
16-Mar 1 2 2,838 3,247 3,560 4,021 4,499 4,894 5,000 5,000 5,000 5,000 5,000 5,000 5,000 5,000 5,000 5,000 5,000 5,000 5,000 5,000 5,000
15-Mar 1 1 1,623 1,780 2,011 2,250 2,447 2,500 2,500 2,500 2,500 2,500 2,500 2,500 2,500 2,500 2,500 2,500 2,500 2,500 2,500 2,500 2,500
14-Mar 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
13-Mar 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
12-Mar 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
11-Mar 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
10-Mar 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 NA
09-Mar 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 NA NA
08-Mar 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 NA NA NA
07-Mar 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 NA NA NA NA
06-Mar 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 NA NA NA NA NA
05-Mar 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 NA NA NA NA NA NA
04-Mar 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
03-Mar 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
02-Mar 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
01-Mar 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA

Proportion complete

Date 10 Days Early 9 Days Early 8 Days Early 7 Days Early 6 Days Early 5 Days Early 4 Days Early 3 Days Early 2 Days Early 1 Days Early 5yr Average 1 Days Late 2 Days Late 3 Days Late 4 Days Late 5 Days Late 6 Days Late 7 Days Late 8 Days Late 9 Days Late 10 Days Late
15-Jun NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 1.00 0.98 0.97 0.95 0.93 0.92 0.91 0.89 0.88 0.86 0.85
14-Jun NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 1.00 0.98 0.97 0.95 0.93 0.92 0.91 0.89 0.88 0.86 0.85 0.83
13-Jun NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 1.00 0.98 0.97 0.95 0.93 0.92 0.91 0.89 0.88 0.86 0.85 0.83 0.82
12-Jun NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 1.00 0.98 0.97 0.95 0.93 0.92 0.91 0.89 0.88 0.86 0.85 0.83 0.82 0.81
11-Jun NA NA NA NA NA NA 1.00 0.98 0.97 0.95 0.93 0.92 0.91 0.89 0.88 0.86 0.85 0.83 0.82 0.81 0.80
10-Jun NA NA NA NA NA 1.00 0.98 0.97 0.95 0.93 0.92 0.91 0.89 0.88 0.86 0.85 0.83 0.82 0.81 0.80 0.79
09-Jun NA NA NA NA 1.00 0.98 0.97 0.95 0.93 0.92 0.91 0.89 0.88 0.86 0.85 0.83 0.82 0.81 0.80 0.79 0.78
08-Jun NA NA NA 1.00 0.98 0.97 0.95 0.93 0.92 0.91 0.89 0.88 0.86 0.85 0.83 0.82 0.81 0.80 0.79 0.78 0.77
07-Jun NA NA 1.00 0.98 0.97 0.95 0.93 0.92 0.91 0.89 0.88 0.86 0.85 0.83 0.82 0.81 0.80 0.79 0.78 0.77 0.76
06-Jun NA 1.00 0.98 0.97 0.95 0.93 0.92 0.91 0.89 0.88 0.86 0.85 0.83 0.82 0.81 0.80 0.79 0.78 0.77 0.76 0.75
05-Jun 1.00 0.98 0.97 0.95 0.93 0.92 0.91 0.89 0.88 0.86 0.85 0.83 0.82 0.81 0.80 0.79 0.78 0.77 0.76 0.75 0.73
04-Jun 0.98 0.97 0.95 0.93 0.92 0.91 0.89 0.88 0.86 0.85 0.83 0.82 0.81 0.80 0.79 0.78 0.77 0.76 0.75 0.73 0.72
03-Jun 0.97 0.95 0.93 0.92 0.91 0.89 0.88 0.86 0.85 0.83 0.82 0.81 0.80 0.79 0.78 0.77 0.76 0.75 0.73 0.72 0.71
02-Jun 0.95 0.93 0.92 0.91 0.89 0.88 0.86 0.85 0.83 0.82 0.81 0.80 0.79 0.78 0.77 0.76 0.75 0.73 0.72 0.71 0.70
01-Jun 0.93 0.92 0.91 0.89 0.88 0.86 0.85 0.83 0.82 0.81 0.80 0.79 0.78 0.77 0.76 0.75 0.73 0.72 0.71 0.70 0.69
31-May 0.92 0.91 0.89 0.88 0.86 0.85 0.83 0.82 0.81 0.80 0.79 0.78 0.77 0.76 0.75 0.73 0.72 0.71 0.70 0.69 0.68
30-May 0.91 0.89 0.88 0.86 0.85 0.83 0.82 0.81 0.80 0.79 0.78 0.77 0.76 0.75 0.73 0.72 0.71 0.70 0.69 0.68 0.67
29-May 0.89 0.88 0.86 0.85 0.83 0.82 0.81 0.80 0.79 0.78 0.77 0.76 0.75 0.73 0.72 0.71 0.70 0.69 0.68 0.67 0.66
28-May 0.88 0.86 0.85 0.83 0.82 0.81 0.80 0.79 0.78 0.77 0.76 0.75 0.73 0.72 0.71 0.70 0.69 0.68 0.67 0.66 0.65
27-May 0.86 0.85 0.83 0.82 0.81 0.80 0.79 0.78 0.77 0.76 0.75 0.73 0.72 0.71 0.70 0.69 0.68 0.67 0.66 0.65 0.63
26-May 0.85 0.83 0.82 0.81 0.80 0.79 0.78 0.77 0.76 0.75 0.73 0.72 0.71 0.70 0.69 0.68 0.67 0.66 0.65 0.63 0.62
25-May 0.83 0.82 0.81 0.80 0.79 0.78 0.77 0.76 0.75 0.73 0.72 0.71 0.70 0.69 0.68 0.67 0.66 0.65 0.63 0.62 0.59
24-May 0.82 0.81 0.80 0.79 0.78 0.77 0.76 0.75 0.73 0.72 0.71 0.70 0.69 0.68 0.67 0.66 0.65 0.63 0.62 0.59 0.57
23-May 0.81 0.80 0.79 0.78 0.77 0.76 0.75 0.73 0.72 0.71 0.70 0.69 0.68 0.67 0.66 0.65 0.63 0.62 0.59 0.57 0.55
22-May 0.80 0.79 0.78 0.77 0.76 0.75 0.73 0.72 0.71 0.70 0.69 0.68 0.67 0.66 0.65 0.63 0.62 0.59 0.57 0.55 0.52
21-May 0.79 0.78 0.77 0.76 0.75 0.73 0.72 0.71 0.70 0.69 0.68 0.67 0.66 0.65 0.63 0.62 0.59 0.57 0.55 0.52 0.49
20-May 0.78 0.77 0.76 0.75 0.73 0.72 0.71 0.70 0.69 0.68 0.67 0.66 0.65 0.63 0.62 0.59 0.57 0.55 0.52 0.49 0.46
19-May 0.77 0.76 0.75 0.73 0.72 0.71 0.70 0.69 0.68 0.67 0.66 0.65 0.63 0.62 0.59 0.57 0.55 0.52 0.49 0.46 0.42
18-May 0.76 0.75 0.73 0.72 0.71 0.70 0.69 0.68 0.67 0.66 0.65 0.63 0.62 0.59 0.57 0.55 0.52 0.49 0.46 0.42 0.39
17-May 0.75 0.73 0.72 0.71 0.70 0.69 0.68 0.67 0.66 0.65 0.63 0.62 0.59 0.57 0.55 0.52 0.49 0.46 0.42 0.39 0.36
16-May 0.73 0.72 0.71 0.70 0.69 0.68 0.67 0.66 0.65 0.63 0.62 0.59 0.57 0.55 0.52 0.49 0.46 0.42 0.39 0.36 0.35
15-May 0.72 0.71 0.70 0.69 0.68 0.67 0.66 0.65 0.63 0.62 0.59 0.57 0.55 0.52 0.49 0.46 0.42 0.39 0.36 0.35 0.32
14-May 0.71 0.70 0.69 0.68 0.67 0.66 0.65 0.63 0.62 0.59 0.57 0.55 0.52 0.49 0.46 0.42 0.39 0.36 0.35 0.32 0.29
13-May 0.70 0.69 0.68 0.67 0.66 0.65 0.63 0.62 0.59 0.57 0.55 0.52 0.49 0.46 0.42 0.39 0.36 0.35 0.32 0.29 0.26
12-May 0.69 0.68 0.67 0.66 0.65 0.63 0.62 0.59 0.57 0.55 0.52 0.49 0.46 0.42 0.39 0.36 0.35 0.32 0.29 0.26 0.23
11-May 0.68 0.67 0.66 0.65 0.63 0.62 0.59 0.57 0.55 0.52 0.49 0.46 0.42 0.39 0.36 0.35 0.32 0.29 0.26 0.23 0.20
10-May 0.67 0.66 0.65 0.63 0.62 0.59 0.57 0.55 0.52 0.49 0.46 0.42 0.39 0.36 0.35 0.32 0.29 0.26 0.23 0.20 0.17
09-May 0.66 0.65 0.63 0.62 0.59 0.57 0.55 0.52 0.49 0.46 0.42 0.39 0.36 0.35 0.32 0.29 0.26 0.23 0.20 0.17 0.14
08-May 0.65 0.63 0.62 0.59 0.57 0.55 0.52 0.49 0.46 0.42 0.39 0.36 0.35 0.32 0.29 0.26 0.23 0.20 0.17 0.14 0.12
07-May 0.63 0.62 0.59 0.57 0.55 0.52 0.49 0.46 0.42 0.39 0.36 0.35 0.32 0.29 0.26 0.23 0.20 0.17 0.14 0.12 0.09
06-May 0.62 0.59 0.57 0.55 0.52 0.49 0.46 0.42 0.39 0.36 0.35 0.32 0.29 0.26 0.23 0.20 0.17 0.14 0.12 0.09 0.08
05-May 0.59 0.57 0.55 0.52 0.49 0.46 0.42 0.39 0.36 0.35 0.32 0.29 0.26 0.23 0.20 0.17 0.14 0.12 0.09 0.08 0.06
04-May 0.57 0.55 0.52 0.49 0.46 0.42 0.39 0.36 0.35 0.32 0.29 0.26 0.23 0.20 0.17 0.14 0.12 0.09 0.08 0.06 0.05
03-May 0.55 0.52 0.49 0.46 0.42 0.39 0.36 0.35 0.32 0.29 0.26 0.23 0.20 0.17 0.14 0.12 0.09 0.08 0.06 0.05 0.04
02-May 0.52 0.49 0.46 0.42 0.39 0.36 0.35 0.32 0.29 0.26 0.23 0.20 0.17 0.14 0.12 0.09 0.08 0.06 0.05 0.04 0.03
01-May 0.49 0.46 0.42 0.39 0.36 0.35 0.32 0.29 0.26 0.23 0.20 0.17 0.14 0.12 0.09 0.08 0.06 0.05 0.04 0.03 0.02
30-Apr 0.46 0.42 0.39 0.36 0.35 0.32 0.29 0.26 0.23 0.20 0.17 0.14 0.12 0.09 0.08 0.06 0.05 0.04 0.03 0.02 0.02
29-Apr 0.42 0.39 0.36 0.35 0.32 0.29 0.26 0.23 0.20 0.17 0.14 0.12 0.09 0.08 0.06 0.05 0.04 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.02
28-Apr 0.39 0.36 0.35 0.32 0.29 0.26 0.23 0.20 0.17 0.14 0.12 0.09 0.08 0.06 0.05 0.04 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.01
27-Apr 0.36 0.35 0.32 0.29 0.26 0.23 0.20 0.17 0.14 0.12 0.09 0.08 0.06 0.05 0.04 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.01
26-Apr 0.35 0.32 0.29 0.26 0.23 0.20 0.17 0.14 0.12 0.09 0.08 0.06 0.05 0.04 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.01
25-Apr 0.32 0.29 0.26 0.23 0.20 0.17 0.14 0.12 0.09 0.08 0.06 0.05 0.04 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01
24-Apr 0.29 0.26 0.23 0.20 0.17 0.14 0.12 0.09 0.08 0.06 0.05 0.04 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01
23-Apr 0.26 0.23 0.20 0.17 0.14 0.12 0.09 0.08 0.06 0.05 0.04 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01
22-Apr 0.23 0.20 0.17 0.14 0.12 0.09 0.08 0.06 0.05 0.04 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01
21-Apr 0.20 0.17 0.14 0.12 0.09 0.08 0.06 0.05 0.04 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.00
20-Apr 0.17 0.14 0.12 0.09 0.08 0.06 0.05 0.04 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00
19-Apr 0.14 0.12 0.09 0.08 0.06 0.05 0.04 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00
18-Apr 0.12 0.09 0.08 0.06 0.05 0.04 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
17-Apr 0.09 0.08 0.06 0.05 0.04 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
16-Apr 0.08 0.06 0.05 0.04 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
15-Apr 0.06 0.05 0.04 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
14-Apr 0.05 0.04 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
13-Apr 0.04 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
12-Apr 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
11-Apr 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
10-Apr 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
09-Apr 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
08-Apr 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
07-Apr 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
06-Apr 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
05-Apr 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
04-Apr 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
03-Apr 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
02-Apr 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
01-Apr 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
31-Mar 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
30-Mar 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
29-Mar 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
28-Mar 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
27-Mar 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
26-Mar 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
25-Mar 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
24-Mar 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
23-Mar 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
22-Mar 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
21-Mar 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
20-Mar 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
19-Mar 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
18-Mar 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
17-Mar 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
16-Mar 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
15-Mar 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
14-Mar 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
13-Mar 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
12-Mar 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
11-Mar 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
10-Mar 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 NA
09-Mar 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 NA NA
08-Mar 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 NA NA NA
07-Mar 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 NA NA NA NA
06-Mar 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 NA NA NA NA NA
05-Mar 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 NA NA NA NA NA NA
04-Mar 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
03-Mar 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
02-Mar 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
01-Mar 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA

summer

The cumulative summer season adult Chinook passage at Bonneville Dam through July 31, 2025 is 43,013. The 10-year (2015–2024) average proportion of the count that has occurred at Bonneville Dam through July 31 is 100%. Based on the cumulative counts to date and this proportion, the expected total summer (Jun 16–Jul 31) season dam count would be 43,035 (95% prediction interval = 43,035 – 43,035 and 50% prediction interval = 43,035 – 43,035) adult Chinook.

Current year

Daily adult chinook salmon counts, flow, and temperature measurements taken at Bonneville Dam.

Percent complete

Percent of the run complete by date in 2010–2024. Lower and upper hinges correspond to the first and third quartiles (the 25th and 75th percentiles).The upper whisker extends from the hinge to the largest value no further than 1.5 * IQR from the hinge (where IQR is the inter-quartile range, or distance between the first and third quartiles). The lower whisker extends from the hinge to the smallest value at most 1.5 * IQR of the hinge. Data beyond the end of the whiskers are called "outlying" points and are plotted individually.

Prediction error

Mean absolute percent error (over 15 year retrospectiv) of predictions based on cumulative counts and 10-year average run timing, by day of year.

Run size predictions
Prediction table
Predictions of the fall season (Mar 1–Jun 15) total adult Chinook salmon count with prediction intervals (50% and 95%) and the mean absolute percent error (MAPE) of predictions made with counts through July 31 in a 15-year retrospective assesment.
Model Pred Lo 951 Lo 501 Hi 501 Hi 951 MAPE
10-year ave. timing 43,035 43,035 43,035 43,035 43,035 0%
1 Prediction intervals for different model types are calculated using different methods, which complicates comparison somewhat. See Methods Description for more detail.
Prediction plot

Daily predictions of total counts at Bonneville from different models.

Prediction interval plot

Daily predictions and prediction intervals (95% and 50%). Prediction intervals for different model types are calculated using different methods, so may not be directly comparable. See Methods Description for more details.

Methods description

DLM

This is a penalized dynamic linear model fit with the Sibregresr package. The coefficients are the:

  1. log-transformed total count of jacks at Bonneville Dam in the previous year,
  2. log-transformed cumulative adult count at Bonneville Dam in the current year,
  3. and interaction between an exponential moving average of river discharge and the cumulative adult count.

The prediction interval is based on the standard deviation (in log-space) of forecasts from a 15-year retrospective. In other words, the root mean square error of the forecast error in log space from a 15-year retrospective is used as the standard deviation in a lognormal prediction interval.

ARIMA

This is an ensemble of ARIMA models fit with the SalmonForecasting package (see README at the linked page for details). The covariates are the same as those described above for the DLM. Prediction intervals are the weighted average of the prediction intervals provided by the forecast::forecast() function in R.

Joint likelihood

This is a version of a model that has been used for this purpose of in-season forecasting for several years. The proportion of the run that is complete on a given day is modeled with autoregressive (order 1) errors and an effect of the river discharge covariate. The pre-season forecast is generated using an age-specific sibling regression. I have not yet implemented a retrospective assessment of performance because, in this version, the pre-season forecasts and prediction uncertainty need to be provided, and I have not pulled in the past 15 years’ forecasts.

10 year average run timing

This method takes the 10-year average of the proportion of the run that was complete on a given day and uses it to expand the cumulative counts to date. Performance and prediction intervals are based on a 15-year retrospective as described above for the DLM but assuming a normal prediction distribution for the proportion complete in logit space.

Average timing info
10-year average

Prediction

Date Daily counts Cumulative count 10 Days Early 9 Days Early 8 Days Early 7 Days Early 6 Days Early 5 Days Early 4 Days Early 3 Days Early 2 Days Early 1 Days Early 10yr Average 1 Days Late 2 Days Late 3 Days Late 4 Days Late 5 Days Late 6 Days Late 7 Days Late 8 Days Late 9 Days Late 10 Days Late
31-Jul 505 43,013 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 43,035 43,356 43,732 44,137 44,543 44,917 45,334 45,745 46,180 46,628 47,144
30-Jul 618 42,508 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 42,529 42,847 43,219 43,618 44,020 44,390 44,802 45,208 45,637 46,081 46,590 47,118
29-Jul 493 41,890 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 41,911 42,224 42,590 42,984 43,380 43,745 44,150 44,551 44,974 45,411 45,913 46,433 46,992
28-Jul 367 41,397 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 41,418 41,727 42,089 42,478 42,869 43,230 43,631 44,027 44,445 44,876 45,373 45,887 46,439 46,979
27-Jul 424 41,030 NA NA NA NA NA NA 41,051 41,357 41,716 42,102 42,489 42,846 43,244 43,636 44,051 44,479 44,970 45,480 46,027 46,563 47,139
26-Jul 435 40,606 NA NA NA NA NA 40,626 40,930 41,285 41,667 42,050 42,404 42,797 43,185 43,595 44,019 44,506 45,010 45,552 46,082 46,652 47,319
25-Jul 536 40,171 NA NA NA NA 40,191 40,491 40,842 41,220 41,599 41,949 42,338 42,723 43,128 43,547 44,029 44,528 45,064 45,588 46,152 46,812 47,560
24-Jul 478 39,635 NA NA NA 39,655 39,951 40,297 40,670 41,044 41,390 41,774 42,153 42,553 42,966 43,441 43,934 44,462 44,980 45,536 46,188 46,926 47,809
23-Jul 354 39,157 NA NA 39,177 39,469 39,811 40,180 40,549 40,891 41,270 41,644 42,040 42,448 42,918 43,404 43,926 44,437 44,987 45,631 46,360 47,233 48,101
22-Jul 309 38,803 NA 38,822 39,113 39,452 39,817 40,183 40,521 40,897 41,268 41,660 42,064 42,530 43,011 43,529 44,036 44,581 45,218 45,941 46,806 47,666 48,564
21-Jul 269 38,494 38,513 38,801 39,137 39,500 39,863 40,198 40,571 40,939 41,328 41,729 42,191 42,669 43,182 43,685 44,226 44,858 45,575 46,433 47,286 48,178 49,060
20-Jul 236 38,225 38,530 38,864 39,224 39,584 39,917 40,287 40,653 41,039 41,438 41,896 42,371 42,881 43,380 43,917 44,545 45,256 46,108 46,956 47,841 48,718 49,672
19-Jul 326 37,989 38,624 38,981 39,340 39,671 40,039 40,402 40,786 41,182 41,637 42,109 42,616 43,112 43,645 44,270 44,977 45,824 46,666 47,546 48,417 49,365 50,488
18-Jul 343 37,663 38,647 39,002 39,330 39,695 40,056 40,436 40,829 41,280 41,748 42,250 42,742 43,271 43,890 44,591 45,430 46,266 47,138 48,001 48,941 50,054 51,222
17-Jul 401 37,320 38,647 38,972 39,334 39,691 40,068 40,457 40,904 41,368 41,865 42,353 42,877 43,490 44,185 45,017 45,844 46,708 47,564 48,496 49,598 50,756 52,075
16-Jul 447 36,919 38,553 38,911 39,264 39,637 40,022 40,465 40,923 41,416 41,898 42,416 43,023 43,710 44,533 45,352 46,206 47,053 47,975 49,066 50,210 51,516 52,963
15-Jul 453 36,472 38,440 38,789 39,157 39,538 39,975 40,428 40,914 41,390 41,903 42,502 43,181 43,994 44,803 45,647 46,483 47,394 48,471 49,602 50,892 52,321 53,876
14-Jul 499 36,019 38,307 38,671 39,046 39,478 39,926 40,406 40,876 41,382 41,974 42,645 43,447 44,246 45,080 45,906 46,805 47,869 48,986 50,260 51,672 53,207 55,179
13-Jul 494 35,520 38,135 38,506 38,931 39,372 39,846 40,310 40,809 41,392 42,054 42,845 43,633 44,455 45,270 46,157 47,206 48,308 49,564 50,956 52,470 54,414 56,557
12-Jul 490 35,026 37,970 38,390 38,825 39,292 39,749 40,241 40,817 41,469 42,250 43,026 43,837 44,640 45,515 46,550 47,636 48,874 50,247 51,740 53,657 55,770 58,131
11-Jul 666 34,536 37,853 38,282 38,742 39,193 39,678 40,246 40,889 41,659 42,424 43,224 44,016 44,878 45,899 46,969 48,191 49,544 51,016 52,907 54,990 57,317 60,074
10-Jul 681 33,870 37,543 37,995 38,437 38,913 39,470 40,100 40,855 41,606 42,390 43,167 44,013 45,013 46,064 47,261 48,589 50,032 51,886 53,929 56,212 58,916 61,809
09-Jul 729 33,189 37,231 37,665 38,131 38,676 39,294 40,034 40,770 41,538 42,299 43,128 44,108 45,137 46,311 47,612 49,026 50,843 52,845 55,082 57,731 60,567 64,351
08-Jul 857 32,460 36,837 37,293 37,827 38,431 39,154 39,874 40,626 41,370 42,180 43,140 44,146 45,294 46,566 47,949 49,726 51,684 53,872 56,463 59,236 62,938 67,325
07-Jul 865 31,603 36,309 36,828 37,416 38,121 38,821 39,553 40,278 41,067 42,001 42,980 44,098 45,337 46,683 48,414 50,320 52,450 54,972 57,672 61,276 65,547 71,091
06-Jul 917 30,738 35,820 36,392 37,077 37,759 38,470 39,175 39,943 40,851 41,804 42,891 44,096 45,406 47,088 48,943 51,014 53,468 56,094 59,599 63,753 69,145 75,342
05-Jul 906 29,821 35,306 35,971 36,632 37,323 38,007 38,751 39,632 40,557 41,611 42,780 44,051 45,684 47,482 49,492 51,873 54,420 57,821 61,851 67,083 73,094 80,615
04-Jul 1,053 28,915 34,878 35,519 36,189 36,852 37,574 38,428 39,325 40,347 41,480 42,713 44,296 46,040 47,989 50,297 52,767 56,064 59,972 65,044 70,874 78,165 87,252
03-Jul 1,237 27,862 34,226 34,871 35,510 36,205 37,029 37,893 38,878 39,970 41,157 42,683 44,363 46,241 48,465 50,845 54,023 57,788 62,676 68,293 75,319 84,074 95,023
02-Jul 1,607 26,625 33,323 33,933 34,598 35,385 36,210 37,152 38,195 39,330 40,788 42,394 44,188 46,313 48,588 51,624 55,223 59,893 65,261 71,975 80,342 90,804 105,314
01-Jul 1,710 25,018 31,885 32,510 33,249 34,025 34,909 35,890 36,956 38,326 39,835 41,521 43,518 45,655 48,508 51,890 56,278 61,322 67,631 75,493 85,324 98,957 116,496
30-Jun 1,385 23,308 30,288 30,976 31,699 32,523 33,437 34,430 35,706 37,112 38,683 40,544 42,535 45,193 48,343 52,431 57,130 63,008 70,333 79,492 92,193 108,533 130,665
29-Jun 1,120 21,923 29,136 29,816 30,591 31,450 32,384 33,584 34,907 36,384 38,134 40,007 42,507 45,470 49,316 53,736 59,264 66,153 74,768 86,715 102,084 122,900 151,956
28-Jun 989 20,803 28,292 29,028 29,843 30,730 31,869 33,124 34,526 36,186 37,963 40,336 43,147 46,796 50,990 56,236 62,774 70,949 82,285 96,869 116,622 144,193 186,103
27-Jun 1,438 19,814 27,648 28,424 29,269 30,354 31,549 32,884 34,466 36,159 38,418 41,096 44,572 48,566 53,563 59,789 67,576 78,373 92,263 111,077 137,338 177,256 254,679
26-Jun 1,693 18,376 26,362 27,145 28,151 29,259 30,498 31,965 33,534 35,630 38,113 41,337 45,042 49,676 55,450 62,671 72,685 85,567 103,016 127,371 164,391 236,196 436,288
25-Jun 1,572 16,683 24,644 25,557 26,563 27,688 29,020 30,445 32,347 34,602 37,529 40,892 45,099 50,341 56,897 65,989 77,684 93,525 115,636 149,246 214,435 396,093 NA
24-Jun 1,344 15,111 23,149 24,060 25,079 26,285 27,576 29,299 31,342 33,992 37,039 40,849 45,598 51,536 59,771 70,364 84,712 104,740 135,183 194,229 358,770 NA NA
23-Jun 1,796 13,767 21,920 22,848 23,947 25,123 26,693 28,554 30,969 33,744 37,216 41,542 46,952 54,455 64,106 77,178 95,424 123,159 176,954 326,860 NA NA NA
22-Jun 1,650 11,971 19,868 20,823 21,846 23,211 24,829 26,929 29,342 32,361 36,123 40,827 47,351 55,743 67,109 82,975 107,092 153,869 284,219 NA NA NA NA
21-Jun 1,754 10,321 17,953 18,835 20,012 21,407 23,217 25,298 27,901 31,144 35,200 40,824 48,059 57,860 71,538 92,331 132,661 245,044 NA NA NA NA NA
20-Jun 1,643 8,567 15,634 16,611 17,769 19,272 20,999 23,159 25,851 29,218 33,886 39,892 48,027 59,381 76,640 110,116 203,400 NA NA NA NA NA NA
19-Jun 1,919 6,924 13,425 14,361 15,576 16,971 18,718 20,893 23,614 27,387 32,241 38,816 47,993 61,942 88,998 164,392 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
18-Jun 1,885 5,005 10,381 11,259 12,268 13,530 15,103 17,070 19,797 23,306 28,058 34,691 44,775 64,332 118,830 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
17-Jun 1,486 3,120 7,018 7,647 8,434 9,415 10,641 12,341 14,528 17,491 21,626 27,911 40,103 74,076 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
16-Jun 1,634 1,634 4,005 4,417 4,931 5,573 6,463 7,609 9,160 11,326 14,618 21,003 38,795 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA

Proportion complete

Date 10 Days Early 9 Days Early 8 Days Early 7 Days Early 6 Days Early 5 Days Early 4 Days Early 3 Days Early 2 Days Early 1 Days Early 10yr Average 1 Days Late 2 Days Late 3 Days Late 4 Days Late 5 Days Late 6 Days Late 7 Days Late 8 Days Late 9 Days Late 10 Days Late
31-Jul NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 1.00 0.99 0.98 0.97 0.97 0.96 0.95 0.94 0.93 0.92 0.91
30-Jul NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 1.00 0.99 0.98 0.97 0.97 0.96 0.95 0.94 0.93 0.92 0.91 0.90
29-Jul NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 1.00 0.99 0.98 0.97 0.97 0.96 0.95 0.94 0.93 0.92 0.91 0.90 0.89
28-Jul NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 1.00 0.99 0.98 0.97 0.97 0.96 0.95 0.94 0.93 0.92 0.91 0.90 0.89 0.88
27-Jul NA NA NA NA NA NA 1.00 0.99 0.98 0.97 0.97 0.96 0.95 0.94 0.93 0.92 0.91 0.90 0.89 0.88 0.87
26-Jul NA NA NA NA NA 1.00 0.99 0.98 0.97 0.97 0.96 0.95 0.94 0.93 0.92 0.91 0.90 0.89 0.88 0.87 0.86
25-Jul NA NA NA NA 1.00 0.99 0.98 0.97 0.97 0.96 0.95 0.94 0.93 0.92 0.91 0.90 0.89 0.88 0.87 0.86 0.84
24-Jul NA NA NA 1.00 0.99 0.98 0.97 0.97 0.96 0.95 0.94 0.93 0.92 0.91 0.90 0.89 0.88 0.87 0.86 0.84 0.83
23-Jul NA NA 1.00 0.99 0.98 0.97 0.97 0.96 0.95 0.94 0.93 0.92 0.91 0.90 0.89 0.88 0.87 0.86 0.84 0.83 0.81
22-Jul NA 1.00 0.99 0.98 0.97 0.97 0.96 0.95 0.94 0.93 0.92 0.91 0.90 0.89 0.88 0.87 0.86 0.84 0.83 0.81 0.80
21-Jul 1.00 0.99 0.98 0.97 0.97 0.96 0.95 0.94 0.93 0.92 0.91 0.90 0.89 0.88 0.87 0.86 0.84 0.83 0.81 0.80 0.78
20-Jul 0.99 0.98 0.97 0.97 0.96 0.95 0.94 0.93 0.92 0.91 0.90 0.89 0.88 0.87 0.86 0.84 0.83 0.81 0.80 0.78 0.77
19-Jul 0.98 0.97 0.97 0.96 0.95 0.94 0.93 0.92 0.91 0.90 0.89 0.88 0.87 0.86 0.84 0.83 0.81 0.80 0.78 0.77 0.75
18-Jul 0.97 0.97 0.96 0.95 0.94 0.93 0.92 0.91 0.90 0.89 0.88 0.87 0.86 0.84 0.83 0.81 0.80 0.78 0.77 0.75 0.74
17-Jul 0.97 0.96 0.95 0.94 0.93 0.92 0.91 0.90 0.89 0.88 0.87 0.86 0.84 0.83 0.81 0.80 0.78 0.77 0.75 0.74 0.72
16-Jul 0.96 0.95 0.94 0.93 0.92 0.91 0.90 0.89 0.88 0.87 0.86 0.84 0.83 0.81 0.80 0.78 0.77 0.75 0.74 0.72 0.70
15-Jul 0.95 0.94 0.93 0.92 0.91 0.90 0.89 0.88 0.87 0.86 0.84 0.83 0.81 0.80 0.78 0.77 0.75 0.74 0.72 0.70 0.68
14-Jul 0.94 0.93 0.92 0.91 0.90 0.89 0.88 0.87 0.86 0.84 0.83 0.81 0.80 0.78 0.77 0.75 0.74 0.72 0.70 0.68 0.65
13-Jul 0.93 0.92 0.91 0.90 0.89 0.88 0.87 0.86 0.84 0.83 0.81 0.80 0.78 0.77 0.75 0.74 0.72 0.70 0.68 0.65 0.63
12-Jul 0.92 0.91 0.90 0.89 0.88 0.87 0.86 0.84 0.83 0.81 0.80 0.78 0.77 0.75 0.74 0.72 0.70 0.68 0.65 0.63 0.60
11-Jul 0.91 0.90 0.89 0.88 0.87 0.86 0.84 0.83 0.81 0.80 0.78 0.77 0.75 0.74 0.72 0.70 0.68 0.65 0.63 0.60 0.57
10-Jul 0.90 0.89 0.88 0.87 0.86 0.84 0.83 0.81 0.80 0.78 0.77 0.75 0.74 0.72 0.70 0.68 0.65 0.63 0.60 0.57 0.55
09-Jul 0.89 0.88 0.87 0.86 0.84 0.83 0.81 0.80 0.78 0.77 0.75 0.74 0.72 0.70 0.68 0.65 0.63 0.60 0.57 0.55 0.52
08-Jul 0.88 0.87 0.86 0.84 0.83 0.81 0.80 0.78 0.77 0.75 0.74 0.72 0.70 0.68 0.65 0.63 0.60 0.57 0.55 0.52 0.48
07-Jul 0.87 0.86 0.84 0.83 0.81 0.80 0.78 0.77 0.75 0.74 0.72 0.70 0.68 0.65 0.63 0.60 0.57 0.55 0.52 0.48 0.44
06-Jul 0.86 0.84 0.83 0.81 0.80 0.78 0.77 0.75 0.74 0.72 0.70 0.68 0.65 0.63 0.60 0.57 0.55 0.52 0.48 0.44 0.41
05-Jul 0.84 0.83 0.81 0.80 0.78 0.77 0.75 0.74 0.72 0.70 0.68 0.65 0.63 0.60 0.57 0.55 0.52 0.48 0.44 0.41 0.37
04-Jul 0.83 0.81 0.80 0.78 0.77 0.75 0.74 0.72 0.70 0.68 0.65 0.63 0.60 0.57 0.55 0.52 0.48 0.44 0.41 0.37 0.33
03-Jul 0.81 0.80 0.78 0.77 0.75 0.74 0.72 0.70 0.68 0.65 0.63 0.60 0.57 0.55 0.52 0.48 0.44 0.41 0.37 0.33 0.29
02-Jul 0.80 0.78 0.77 0.75 0.74 0.72 0.70 0.68 0.65 0.63 0.60 0.57 0.55 0.52 0.48 0.44 0.41 0.37 0.33 0.29 0.25
01-Jul 0.78 0.77 0.75 0.74 0.72 0.70 0.68 0.65 0.63 0.60 0.57 0.55 0.52 0.48 0.44 0.41 0.37 0.33 0.29 0.25 0.21
30-Jun 0.77 0.75 0.74 0.72 0.70 0.68 0.65 0.63 0.60 0.57 0.55 0.52 0.48 0.44 0.41 0.37 0.33 0.29 0.25 0.21 0.18
29-Jun 0.75 0.74 0.72 0.70 0.68 0.65 0.63 0.60 0.57 0.55 0.52 0.48 0.44 0.41 0.37 0.33 0.29 0.25 0.21 0.18 0.14
28-Jun 0.74 0.72 0.70 0.68 0.65 0.63 0.60 0.57 0.55 0.52 0.48 0.44 0.41 0.37 0.33 0.29 0.25 0.21 0.18 0.14 0.11
27-Jun 0.72 0.70 0.68 0.65 0.63 0.60 0.57 0.55 0.52 0.48 0.44 0.41 0.37 0.33 0.29 0.25 0.21 0.18 0.14 0.11 0.08
26-Jun 0.70 0.68 0.65 0.63 0.60 0.57 0.55 0.52 0.48 0.44 0.41 0.37 0.33 0.29 0.25 0.21 0.18 0.14 0.11 0.08 0.04
25-Jun 0.68 0.65 0.63 0.60 0.57 0.55 0.52 0.48 0.44 0.41 0.37 0.33 0.29 0.25 0.21 0.18 0.14 0.11 0.08 0.04 NA
24-Jun 0.65 0.63 0.60 0.57 0.55 0.52 0.48 0.44 0.41 0.37 0.33 0.29 0.25 0.21 0.18 0.14 0.11 0.08 0.04 NA NA
23-Jun 0.63 0.60 0.57 0.55 0.52 0.48 0.44 0.41 0.37 0.33 0.29 0.25 0.21 0.18 0.14 0.11 0.08 0.04 NA NA NA
22-Jun 0.60 0.57 0.55 0.52 0.48 0.44 0.41 0.37 0.33 0.29 0.25 0.21 0.18 0.14 0.11 0.08 0.04 NA NA NA NA
21-Jun 0.57 0.55 0.52 0.48 0.44 0.41 0.37 0.33 0.29 0.25 0.21 0.18 0.14 0.11 0.08 0.04 NA NA NA NA NA
20-Jun 0.55 0.52 0.48 0.44 0.41 0.37 0.33 0.29 0.25 0.21 0.18 0.14 0.11 0.08 0.04 NA NA NA NA NA NA
19-Jun 0.52 0.48 0.44 0.41 0.37 0.33 0.29 0.25 0.21 0.18 0.14 0.11 0.08 0.04 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
18-Jun 0.48 0.44 0.41 0.37 0.33 0.29 0.25 0.21 0.18 0.14 0.11 0.08 0.04 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
17-Jun 0.44 0.41 0.37 0.33 0.29 0.25 0.21 0.18 0.14 0.11 0.08 0.04 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
16-Jun 0.41 0.37 0.33 0.29 0.25 0.21 0.18 0.14 0.11 0.08 0.04 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
5-year average

Prediction

Date Daily counts Cumulative count 10 Days Early 9 Days Early 8 Days Early 7 Days Early 6 Days Early 5 Days Early 4 Days Early 3 Days Early 2 Days Early 1 Days Early 5yr Average 1 Days Late 2 Days Late 3 Days Late 4 Days Late 5 Days Late 6 Days Late 7 Days Late 8 Days Late 9 Days Late 10 Days Late
31-Jul 505 43,013 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 43,035 43,365 43,711 44,106 44,506 44,848 45,210 45,557 45,960 46,346 46,792
30-Jul 618 42,508 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 42,529 42,856 43,198 43,588 43,984 44,322 44,679 45,022 45,420 45,802 46,243 46,723
29-Jul 493 41,890 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 41,911 42,233 42,570 42,955 43,344 43,678 44,030 44,368 44,760 45,136 45,571 46,043 46,516
28-Jul 367 41,397 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 41,418 41,736 42,069 42,449 42,834 43,163 43,512 43,845 44,233 44,605 45,034 45,501 45,968 46,506
27-Jul 424 41,030 NA NA NA NA NA NA 41,051 41,366 41,696 42,073 42,454 42,781 43,126 43,457 43,841 44,210 44,635 45,098 45,561 46,093 46,642
26-Jul 435 40,606 NA NA NA NA NA 40,626 40,938 41,265 41,638 42,016 42,339 42,680 43,008 43,388 43,753 44,174 44,632 45,090 45,617 46,160 46,789
25-Jul 536 40,171 NA NA NA NA 40,191 40,500 40,823 41,192 41,566 41,885 42,223 42,547 42,923 43,284 43,701 44,154 44,607 45,128 45,666 46,288 46,931
24-Jul 478 39,635 NA NA NA 39,655 39,959 40,278 40,642 41,011 41,326 41,660 41,979 42,351 42,707 43,117 43,565 44,012 44,526 45,057 45,670 46,305 46,980
23-Jul 354 39,157 NA NA 39,177 39,478 39,793 40,152 40,516 40,828 41,157 41,473 41,840 42,192 42,597 43,039 43,481 43,989 44,513 45,119 45,746 46,413 47,134
22-Jul 309 38,803 NA 38,822 39,121 39,433 39,789 40,150 40,459 40,785 41,098 41,462 41,810 42,212 42,650 43,088 43,592 44,111 44,711 45,333 45,994 46,708 47,541
21-Jul 269 38,494 38,513 38,809 39,119 39,472 39,830 40,137 40,460 40,771 41,131 41,477 41,876 42,311 42,745 43,244 43,760 44,355 44,972 45,628 46,336 47,162 47,991
20-Jul 236 38,225 38,538 38,845 39,197 39,552 39,856 40,178 40,486 40,844 41,187 41,584 42,015 42,446 42,942 43,454 44,045 44,658 45,309 46,012 46,833 47,656 48,586
19-Jul 326 37,989 38,606 38,955 39,308 39,610 39,929 40,236 40,592 40,933 41,327 41,756 42,184 42,677 43,186 43,773 44,382 45,029 45,728 46,544 47,361 48,286 49,316
18-Jul 343 37,663 38,620 38,971 39,270 39,587 39,891 40,243 40,582 40,972 41,397 41,822 42,311 42,815 43,398 44,001 44,643 45,336 46,144 46,955 47,872 48,892 49,906
17-Jul 401 37,320 38,616 38,912 39,226 39,527 39,877 40,212 40,599 41,020 41,441 41,926 42,425 43,002 43,600 44,236 44,923 45,724 46,527 47,436 48,447 49,451 50,663
16-Jul 447 36,919 38,494 38,805 39,103 39,448 39,780 40,163 40,579 40,996 41,475 41,969 42,540 43,132 43,761 44,440 45,233 46,028 46,926 47,927 48,920 50,119 51,488
15-Jul 453 36,472 38,335 38,629 38,971 39,299 39,677 40,088 40,500 40,973 41,461 42,025 42,610 43,231 43,902 44,685 45,470 46,358 47,346 48,328 49,512 50,864 52,407
14-Jul 499 36,019 38,149 38,487 38,810 39,184 39,590 39,997 40,464 40,946 41,503 42,080 42,694 43,357 44,130 44,905 45,782 46,758 47,727 48,897 50,232 51,756 53,654
13-Jul 494 35,520 37,954 38,273 38,641 39,042 39,442 39,903 40,379 40,928 41,497 42,102 42,756 43,519 44,283 45,148 46,111 47,066 48,220 49,537 51,039 52,910 54,824
12-Jul 490 35,026 37,740 38,104 38,499 38,894 39,348 39,817 40,359 40,920 41,517 42,162 42,913 43,667 44,520 45,469 46,412 47,549 48,848 50,329 52,175 54,061 56,235
11-Jul 666 34,536 37,570 37,960 38,350 38,798 39,260 39,795 40,348 40,936 41,572 42,313 43,057 43,897 44,833 45,762 46,884 48,164 49,625 51,445 53,305 55,449 58,008
10-Jul 681 33,870 37,228 37,610 38,050 38,503 39,027 39,570 40,147 40,770 41,497 42,226 43,050 43,969 44,880 45,980 47,235 48,668 50,453 52,277 54,379 56,890 59,797
09-Jul 729 33,189 36,854 37,285 37,729 38,242 38,774 39,339 39,950 40,663 41,377 42,185 43,085 43,977 45,055 46,286 47,689 49,438 51,226 53,286 55,746 58,595 62,323
08-Jul 857 32,460 36,466 36,900 37,402 37,922 38,475 39,073 39,770 40,468 41,258 42,138 43,011 44,066 45,269 46,642 48,352 50,101 52,116 54,521 57,308 60,954 65,228
07-Jul 865 31,603 35,926 36,415 36,921 37,460 38,041 38,720 39,400 40,169 41,026 41,876 42,902 44,074 45,410 47,076 48,778 50,740 53,082 55,795 59,345 63,505 69,463
06-Jul 917 30,738 35,418 35,911 36,434 37,000 37,660 38,322 39,070 39,903 40,730 41,728 42,867 44,168 45,787 47,443 49,351 51,629 54,268 57,720 61,767 67,562 74,043
05-Jul 906 29,821 34,839 35,347 35,896 36,536 37,178 37,904 38,712 39,515 40,483 41,589 42,850 44,421 46,027 47,879 50,089 52,649 55,998 59,925 65,546 71,834 79,772
04-Jul 1,053 28,915 34,273 34,806 35,426 36,049 36,752 37,536 38,314 39,253 40,325 41,548 43,072 44,629 46,424 48,567 51,049 54,297 58,104 63,555 69,652 77,348 86,496
03-Jul 1,237 27,862 33,538 34,136 34,736 35,414 36,169 36,919 37,824 38,857 40,035 41,503 43,004 44,733 46,798 49,190 52,320 55,988 61,240 67,115 74,532 83,347 93,855
02-Jul 1,607 26,625 32,621 33,194 33,842 34,563 35,280 36,144 37,131 38,258 39,660 41,094 42,747 44,721 47,006 49,997 53,502 58,521 64,136 71,223 79,646 89,688 104,365
01-Jul 1,710 25,018 31,190 31,799 32,477 33,150 33,963 34,890 35,948 37,267 38,614 40,167 42,021 44,169 46,979 50,273 54,989 60,265 66,924 74,839 84,275 98,066 115,045
30-Jun 1,385 23,308 29,626 30,257 30,884 31,641 32,506 33,491 34,719 35,975 37,422 39,149 41,150 43,768 46,837 51,231 56,145 62,350 69,724 78,515 91,363 107,182 130,732
29-Jun 1,120 21,923 28,459 29,049 29,761 30,574 31,501 32,656 33,837 35,198 36,823 38,705 41,167 44,054 48,186 52,809 58,645 65,581 73,849 85,934 100,813 122,964 156,865
28-Jun 989 20,803 27,565 28,241 29,012 29,892 30,988 32,108 33,400 34,942 36,727 39,064 41,803 45,725 50,111 55,649 62,230 70,076 81,544 95,663 116,682 148,851 189,944
27-Jun 1,438 19,814 26,898 27,633 28,471 29,515 30,582 31,812 33,280 34,981 37,207 39,816 43,551 47,729 53,003 59,272 66,745 77,667 91,115 111,134 141,775 180,914 258,633
26-Jun 1,693 18,376 25,627 26,405 27,373 28,363 29,503 30,865 32,443 34,507 36,926 40,390 44,265 49,156 54,970 61,901 72,030 84,502 103,069 131,486 167,784 239,863 439,472
25-Jun 1,572 16,683 23,972 24,851 25,749 26,785 28,022 29,454 31,328 33,524 36,669 40,187 44,628 49,906 56,198 65,394 76,717 93,573 119,372 152,326 217,764 398,983 NA
24-Jun 1,344 15,111 22,509 23,323 24,261 25,381 26,678 28,376 30,365 33,214 36,400 40,422 45,203 50,902 59,232 69,488 84,756 108,124 137,973 197,245 361,388 NA NA
23-Jun 1,796 13,767 21,249 22,103 23,124 24,305 25,852 27,664 30,260 33,163 36,827 41,183 46,375 53,964 63,308 77,218 98,507 125,701 179,702 329,245 NA NA NA
22-Jun 1,650 11,971 19,220 20,107 21,135 22,479 24,055 26,312 28,836 32,023 35,810 40,325 46,924 55,049 67,144 85,656 109,303 156,258 286,293 NA NA NA NA
21-Jun 1,754 10,321 17,336 18,222 19,381 20,740 22,685 24,862 27,609 30,874 34,767 40,456 47,461 57,889 73,850 94,237 134,721 246,832 NA NA NA NA NA
20-Jun 1,643 8,567 15,125 16,087 17,215 18,830 20,637 22,917 25,627 28,859 33,581 39,395 48,051 61,299 78,222 111,826 204,885 NA NA NA NA NA NA
19-Jun 1,919 6,924 13,002 13,914 15,219 16,679 18,522 20,712 23,324 27,141 31,840 38,836 49,543 63,220 90,379 165,591 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
18-Jun 1,885 5,005 10,057 11,001 12,056 13,389 14,972 16,860 19,619 23,016 28,072 35,812 45,699 65,331 119,697 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
17-Jun 1,486 3,120 6,858 7,516 8,346 9,333 10,510 12,230 14,347 17,500 22,324 28,488 40,726 74,617 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
16-Jun 1,634 1,634 3,936 4,371 4,888 5,504 6,405 7,514 9,165 11,692 14,919 21,329 39,078 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA

Proportion complete

Date 10 Days Early 9 Days Early 8 Days Early 7 Days Early 6 Days Early 5 Days Early 4 Days Early 3 Days Early 2 Days Early 1 Days Early 5yr Average 1 Days Late 2 Days Late 3 Days Late 4 Days Late 5 Days Late 6 Days Late 7 Days Late 8 Days Late 9 Days Late 10 Days Late
31-Jul NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 1.00 0.99 0.98 0.98 0.97 0.96 0.95 0.94 0.94 0.93 0.92
30-Jul NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 1.00 0.99 0.98 0.98 0.97 0.96 0.95 0.94 0.94 0.93 0.92 0.91
29-Jul NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 1.00 0.99 0.98 0.98 0.97 0.96 0.95 0.94 0.94 0.93 0.92 0.91 0.90
28-Jul NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 1.00 0.99 0.98 0.98 0.97 0.96 0.95 0.94 0.94 0.93 0.92 0.91 0.90 0.89
27-Jul NA NA NA NA NA NA 1.00 0.99 0.98 0.98 0.97 0.96 0.95 0.94 0.94 0.93 0.92 0.91 0.90 0.89 0.88
26-Jul NA NA NA NA NA 1.00 0.99 0.98 0.98 0.97 0.96 0.95 0.94 0.94 0.93 0.92 0.91 0.90 0.89 0.88 0.87
25-Jul NA NA NA NA 1.00 0.99 0.98 0.98 0.97 0.96 0.95 0.94 0.94 0.93 0.92 0.91 0.90 0.89 0.88 0.87 0.86
24-Jul NA NA NA 1.00 0.99 0.98 0.98 0.97 0.96 0.95 0.94 0.94 0.93 0.92 0.91 0.90 0.89 0.88 0.87 0.86 0.84
23-Jul NA NA 1.00 0.99 0.98 0.98 0.97 0.96 0.95 0.94 0.94 0.93 0.92 0.91 0.90 0.89 0.88 0.87 0.86 0.84 0.83
22-Jul NA 1.00 0.99 0.98 0.98 0.97 0.96 0.95 0.94 0.94 0.93 0.92 0.91 0.90 0.89 0.88 0.87 0.86 0.84 0.83 0.82
21-Jul 1.00 0.99 0.98 0.98 0.97 0.96 0.95 0.94 0.94 0.93 0.92 0.91 0.90 0.89 0.88 0.87 0.86 0.84 0.83 0.82 0.80
20-Jul 0.99 0.98 0.98 0.97 0.96 0.95 0.94 0.94 0.93 0.92 0.91 0.90 0.89 0.88 0.87 0.86 0.84 0.83 0.82 0.80 0.79
19-Jul 0.98 0.98 0.97 0.96 0.95 0.94 0.94 0.93 0.92 0.91 0.90 0.89 0.88 0.87 0.86 0.84 0.83 0.82 0.80 0.79 0.77
18-Jul 0.98 0.97 0.96 0.95 0.94 0.94 0.93 0.92 0.91 0.90 0.89 0.88 0.87 0.86 0.84 0.83 0.82 0.80 0.79 0.77 0.75
17-Jul 0.97 0.96 0.95 0.94 0.94 0.93 0.92 0.91 0.90 0.89 0.88 0.87 0.86 0.84 0.83 0.82 0.80 0.79 0.77 0.75 0.74
16-Jul 0.96 0.95 0.94 0.94 0.93 0.92 0.91 0.90 0.89 0.88 0.87 0.86 0.84 0.83 0.82 0.80 0.79 0.77 0.75 0.74 0.72
15-Jul 0.95 0.94 0.94 0.93 0.92 0.91 0.90 0.89 0.88 0.87 0.86 0.84 0.83 0.82 0.80 0.79 0.77 0.75 0.74 0.72 0.70
14-Jul 0.94 0.94 0.93 0.92 0.91 0.90 0.89 0.88 0.87 0.86 0.84 0.83 0.82 0.80 0.79 0.77 0.75 0.74 0.72 0.70 0.67
13-Jul 0.94 0.93 0.92 0.91 0.90 0.89 0.88 0.87 0.86 0.84 0.83 0.82 0.80 0.79 0.77 0.75 0.74 0.72 0.70 0.67 0.65
12-Jul 0.93 0.92 0.91 0.90 0.89 0.88 0.87 0.86 0.84 0.83 0.82 0.80 0.79 0.77 0.75 0.74 0.72 0.70 0.67 0.65 0.62
11-Jul 0.92 0.91 0.90 0.89 0.88 0.87 0.86 0.84 0.83 0.82 0.80 0.79 0.77 0.75 0.74 0.72 0.70 0.67 0.65 0.62 0.60
10-Jul 0.91 0.90 0.89 0.88 0.87 0.86 0.84 0.83 0.82 0.80 0.79 0.77 0.75 0.74 0.72 0.70 0.67 0.65 0.62 0.60 0.57
09-Jul 0.90 0.89 0.88 0.87 0.86 0.84 0.83 0.82 0.80 0.79 0.77 0.75 0.74 0.72 0.70 0.67 0.65 0.62 0.60 0.57 0.53
08-Jul 0.89 0.88 0.87 0.86 0.84 0.83 0.82 0.80 0.79 0.77 0.75 0.74 0.72 0.70 0.67 0.65 0.62 0.60 0.57 0.53 0.50
07-Jul 0.88 0.87 0.86 0.84 0.83 0.82 0.80 0.79 0.77 0.75 0.74 0.72 0.70 0.67 0.65 0.62 0.60 0.57 0.53 0.50 0.45
06-Jul 0.87 0.86 0.84 0.83 0.82 0.80 0.79 0.77 0.75 0.74 0.72 0.70 0.67 0.65 0.62 0.60 0.57 0.53 0.50 0.45 0.42
05-Jul 0.86 0.84 0.83 0.82 0.80 0.79 0.77 0.75 0.74 0.72 0.70 0.67 0.65 0.62 0.60 0.57 0.53 0.50 0.45 0.42 0.37
04-Jul 0.84 0.83 0.82 0.80 0.79 0.77 0.75 0.74 0.72 0.70 0.67 0.65 0.62 0.60 0.57 0.53 0.50 0.45 0.42 0.37 0.33
03-Jul 0.83 0.82 0.80 0.79 0.77 0.75 0.74 0.72 0.70 0.67 0.65 0.62 0.60 0.57 0.53 0.50 0.45 0.42 0.37 0.33 0.30
02-Jul 0.82 0.80 0.79 0.77 0.75 0.74 0.72 0.70 0.67 0.65 0.62 0.60 0.57 0.53 0.50 0.45 0.42 0.37 0.33 0.30 0.26
01-Jul 0.80 0.79 0.77 0.75 0.74 0.72 0.70 0.67 0.65 0.62 0.60 0.57 0.53 0.50 0.45 0.42 0.37 0.33 0.30 0.26 0.22
30-Jun 0.79 0.77 0.75 0.74 0.72 0.70 0.67 0.65 0.62 0.60 0.57 0.53 0.50 0.45 0.42 0.37 0.33 0.30 0.26 0.22 0.18
29-Jun 0.77 0.75 0.74 0.72 0.70 0.67 0.65 0.62 0.60 0.57 0.53 0.50 0.45 0.42 0.37 0.33 0.30 0.26 0.22 0.18 0.14
28-Jun 0.75 0.74 0.72 0.70 0.67 0.65 0.62 0.60 0.57 0.53 0.50 0.45 0.42 0.37 0.33 0.30 0.26 0.22 0.18 0.14 0.11
27-Jun 0.74 0.72 0.70 0.67 0.65 0.62 0.60 0.57 0.53 0.50 0.45 0.42 0.37 0.33 0.30 0.26 0.22 0.18 0.14 0.11 0.08
26-Jun 0.72 0.70 0.67 0.65 0.62 0.60 0.57 0.53 0.50 0.45 0.42 0.37 0.33 0.30 0.26 0.22 0.18 0.14 0.11 0.08 0.04
25-Jun 0.70 0.67 0.65 0.62 0.60 0.57 0.53 0.50 0.45 0.42 0.37 0.33 0.30 0.26 0.22 0.18 0.14 0.11 0.08 0.04 NA
24-Jun 0.67 0.65 0.62 0.60 0.57 0.53 0.50 0.45 0.42 0.37 0.33 0.30 0.26 0.22 0.18 0.14 0.11 0.08 0.04 NA NA
23-Jun 0.65 0.62 0.60 0.57 0.53 0.50 0.45 0.42 0.37 0.33 0.30 0.26 0.22 0.18 0.14 0.11 0.08 0.04 NA NA NA
22-Jun 0.62 0.60 0.57 0.53 0.50 0.45 0.42 0.37 0.33 0.30 0.26 0.22 0.18 0.14 0.11 0.08 0.04 NA NA NA NA
21-Jun 0.60 0.57 0.53 0.50 0.45 0.42 0.37 0.33 0.30 0.26 0.22 0.18 0.14 0.11 0.08 0.04 NA NA NA NA NA
20-Jun 0.57 0.53 0.50 0.45 0.42 0.37 0.33 0.30 0.26 0.22 0.18 0.14 0.11 0.08 0.04 NA NA NA NA NA NA
19-Jun 0.53 0.50 0.45 0.42 0.37 0.33 0.30 0.26 0.22 0.18 0.14 0.11 0.08 0.04 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
18-Jun 0.50 0.45 0.42 0.37 0.33 0.30 0.26 0.22 0.18 0.14 0.11 0.08 0.04 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
17-Jun 0.45 0.42 0.37 0.33 0.30 0.26 0.22 0.18 0.14 0.11 0.08 0.04 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
16-Jun 0.42 0.37 0.33 0.30 0.26 0.22 0.18 0.14 0.11 0.08 0.04 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA

fall

During the fall season, we partition adult Chinook counts into bright adults, tule adults, and tule stubbies based on a visual assessment of the number of fish of each class passing the dam during two hours of the day. These visual assignments are subject to error and are a tool for inseason forecasting but not post-season run reconstruction. The predictions below are based on these visual assesments.

Tule

The cumulative fall season Tule adult Chinook passage at Bonneville Dam through September 01, 2025 is 31,209. The 10-year (2015–2024) average proportion of the count that has occurred at Bonneville Dam through September 01 is 39.7%. Based on the cumulative counts to date and this proportion, the expected total fall (Aug 1–Oct 30) season dam count would be 78,621 (95% prediction interval = 38,550 – 337,427 and 50% prediction interval = 56,160 – 121,301) adult Chinook.

Current year

Daily adult chinook salmon counts, flow, and temperature measurements taken at Bonneville Dam.

Percent complete

Percent of the run complete by date in 2010–2024. Lower and upper hinges correspond to the first and third quartiles (the 25th and 75th percentiles).The upper whisker extends from the hinge to the largest value no further than 1.5 * IQR from the hinge (where IQR is the inter-quartile range, or distance between the first and third quartiles). The lower whisker extends from the hinge to the smallest value at most 1.5 * IQR of the hinge. Data beyond the end of the whiskers are called "outlying" points and are plotted individually.

Prediction error

Mean absolute percent error (over 15 year retrospectiv) of predictions based on cumulative counts and 10-year average run timing, by day of year.

Run size predictions
Prediction table
Predictions of the fall season (Mar 1–Jun 15) total adult Chinook salmon count with prediction intervals (50% and 95%) and the mean absolute percent error (MAPE) of predictions made with counts through September 01 in a 15-year retrospective assesment.
Model Pred Lo 951 Lo 501 Hi 501 Hi 951 MAPE
DLM 120,182 52,669 90,478 159,639 274,239 40%
ARIMA 118,071 48,052 86,508 161,464 294,926 38%
Joint_Lik 114,210 64,041 91,531 145,416 241,038 —
10-year ave. timing 78,621 38,550 56,160 121,301 337,427 50%
1 Prediction intervals for different model types are calculated using different methods, which complicates comparison somewhat. See Methods Description for more detail.
Prediction plot

Daily predictions of total counts at Bonneville from different models.

Prediction interval plot

Daily predictions and prediction intervals (95% and 50%). Prediction intervals for different model types are calculated using different methods, so may not be directly comparable. See Methods Description for more details.

Covariate effects
Fitted coefficients, covariate values, and effects (coefficient * covariate) for the DLM and ARIMA models. Covariates are the log of the jack returns in the previous years, the log of the cumulative adult counts to date, and an interaction between the cumulative counts and a moving average of river discharge.
Model1
coef
covar
effect
intercept log lag jack log cum cnt cnt by flow log lag jack log cum cnt cnt by flow log lag jack log cum cnt cnt by flow
DLM −0.56 0.96 0.00 0.31 1.78 0.87 −0.52 1.71 0.00 −0.16
ARIMA 3.85 0.41 0.09 0.06 1.78 0.91 −0.64 0.73 0.08 −0.04
1 The response and the covariates are z-scored before fitting the DLM, but the response is not standardized for the ARIMA model
Fitted coefficient, covariate value, and effect (coefficient * covariate) for the log transformed and z-scaled moving average of river discharge in the linear predictor of the proportion of the run that is complete within the joint-likelihood model.
Coefficient Covariate Effect
−0.21 −0.76 0.16
Methods description

DLM

This is a penalized dynamic linear model fit with the Sibregresr package. The coefficients are the:

  1. log-transformed total count of jacks at Bonneville Dam in the previous year,
  2. log-transformed cumulative adult count at Bonneville Dam in the current year,
  3. and interaction between an exponential moving average of river discharge and the cumulative adult count.

The prediction interval is based on the standard deviation (in log-space) of forecasts from a 15-year retrospective. In other words, the root mean square error of the forecast error in log space from a 15-year retrospective is used as the standard deviation in a lognormal prediction interval.

ARIMA

This is an ensemble of ARIMA models fit with the SalmonForecasting package (see README at the linked page for details). The covariates are the same as those described above for the DLM. Prediction intervals are the weighted average of the prediction intervals provided by the forecast::forecast() function in R.

Joint likelihood

This is a version of a model that has been used for this purpose of in-season forecasting for several years. The proportion of the run that is complete on a given day is modeled with autoregressive (order 1) errors and an effect of the river discharge covariate. The pre-season forecast is generated using an age-specific sibling regression. I have not yet implemented a retrospective assessment of performance because, in this version, the pre-season forecasts and prediction uncertainty need to be provided, and I have not pulled in the past 15 years’ forecasts.

10 year average run timing

This method takes the 10-year average of the proportion of the run that was complete on a given day and uses it to expand the cumulative counts to date. Performance and prediction intervals are based on a 15-year retrospective as described above for the DLM but assuming a normal prediction distribution for the proportion complete in logit space.

Average timing info
10-year average

Prediction

Date Daily counts Cumulative count 10 Days Early 9 Days Early 8 Days Early 7 Days Early 6 Days Early 5 Days Early 4 Days Early 3 Days Early 2 Days Early 1 Days Early 10yr Average 1 Days Late 2 Days Late 3 Days Late 4 Days Late 5 Days Late 6 Days Late 7 Days Late 8 Days Late 9 Days Late 10 Days Late
01-Sep 3,433 31,209 39,781 41,821 43,746 46,288 48,644 52,343 57,213 61,194 66,971 71,858 78,621 90,724 106,791 132,814 159,552 197,688 249,340 322,398 382,321 444,769 540,435
31-Aug 4,042 27,775 37,220 38,934 41,196 43,292 46,585 50,919 54,462 59,603 63,952 69,971 80,742 95,042 118,202 141,998 175,939 221,909 286,928 340,259 395,837 480,978 570,328
30-Aug 4,632 23,733 33,268 35,201 36,992 39,805 43,509 46,536 50,929 54,645 59,789 68,992 81,211 101,001 121,333 150,335 189,615 245,172 290,742 338,232 410,982 487,329 592,447
29-Aug 4,790 19,101 28,331 29,772 32,037 35,017 37,454 40,990 43,980 48,120 55,527 65,361 81,289 97,653 120,994 152,608 197,323 233,999 272,220 330,772 392,218 476,821 591,993
28-Aug 2,617 14,311 22,306 24,002 26,236 28,061 30,710 32,951 36,052 41,602 48,970 60,903 73,164 90,652 114,337 147,839 175,317 203,953 247,822 293,859 357,245 443,534 572,937
27-Aug 683 11,694 19,613 21,437 22,929 25,094 26,925 29,459 33,994 40,014 49,765 59,783 74,072 93,426 120,800 143,253 166,652 202,498 240,115 291,908 362,416 468,152 594,983
26-Aug 756 11,011 20,186 21,590 23,629 25,353 27,739 32,009 37,678 46,859 56,293 69,748 87,972 113,748 134,890 156,923 190,676 226,097 274,867 341,259 440,822 560,248 745,697
25-Aug 1,799 10,255 20,107 22,006 23,611 25,833 29,810 35,090 43,640 52,426 64,956 81,929 105,934 125,624 146,143 177,577 210,565 255,984 317,815 410,538 521,760 694,468 824,858
24-Aug 2,954 8,456 18,146 19,470 21,302 24,582 28,935 35,986 43,231 53,563 67,559 87,354 103,590 120,510 146,431 173,633 211,086 262,072 338,533 430,247 572,663 680,183 794,598
23-Aug 2,039 5,502 12,668 13,860 15,994 18,826 23,414 28,128 34,851 43,957 56,836 67,400 78,410 95,275 112,974 137,342 170,516 220,265 279,939 372,601 442,558 517,002 632,432
22-Aug 1,007 3,463 8,724 10,067 11,850 14,738 17,704 21,936 27,668 35,774 42,424 49,353 59,968 71,109 86,447 107,327 138,641 176,201 234,525 278,558 325,415 398,069 474,733
21-Aug 380 2,456 7,141 8,405 10,453 12,558 15,559 19,625 25,375 30,091 35,006 42,536 50,438 61,317 76,128 98,339 124,980 166,350 197,583 230,819 282,353 336,731 381,543
20-Aug 747 2,077 7,106 8,838 10,617 13,155 16,592 21,453 25,441 29,596 35,962 42,642 51,841 64,362 83,140 105,664 140,640 167,046 195,145 238,715 284,688 322,574 386,398
19-Aug 442 1,330 5,660 6,800 8,425 10,627 13,740 16,294 18,955 23,033 27,311 33,202 41,222 53,249 67,675 90,076 106,988 124,985 152,890 182,335 206,600 247,477 287,378
18-Aug 210 888 4,538 5,623 7,092 9,170 10,874 12,650 15,371 18,227 22,158 27,510 35,537 45,164 60,114 71,401 83,411 102,034 121,685 137,879 165,159 191,788 228,633
17-Aug 56 678 4,292 5,413 7,000 8,301 9,656 11,733 13,913 16,914 21,000 27,127 34,476 45,887 54,503 63,671 77,887 92,887 105,248 126,072 146,399 174,524 204,485
16-Aug 24 622 4,967 6,422 7,616 8,860 10,765 12,765 15,518 19,267 24,888 31,630 42,100 50,005 58,416 71,459 85,221 96,562 115,667 134,317 160,120 187,609 226,038
15-Aug 138 598 6,174 7,322 8,517 10,350 12,272 14,919 18,523 23,927 30,409 40,475 48,074 56,161 68,700 81,931 92,834 111,202 129,131 153,939 180,366 217,312 269,823
14-Aug 36 460 5,636 6,557 7,967 9,447 11,485 14,259 18,419 23,408 31,157 37,007 43,232 52,884 63,069 71,462 85,601 99,403 118,499 138,842 167,283 207,705 273,547
13-Aug 74 424 6,042 7,341 8,705 10,583 13,139 16,972 21,570 28,710 34,100 39,836 48,730 58,115 65,849 78,878 91,595 109,192 127,937 154,144 191,392 252,062 333,746
12-Aug 146 350 6,065 7,192 8,743 10,855 14,022 17,820 23,719 28,172 32,911 40,259 48,012 54,402 65,166 75,673 90,210 105,697 127,348 158,120 208,244 275,728 455,222
11-Aug 99 204 4,188 5,091 6,321 8,165 10,376 13,811 16,404 19,164 23,442 27,957 31,678 37,945 44,063 52,528 61,546 74,153 92,071 121,258 160,553 265,070 429,691
10-Aug 37 105 2,632 3,268 4,221 5,365 7,141 8,481 9,908 12,120 14,454 16,378 19,618 22,781 27,158 31,820 38,338 47,602 62,691 83,007 137,044 222,154 NA
09-Aug 25 69 2,134 2,756 3,503 4,663 5,538 6,470 7,914 9,438 10,694 12,810 14,876 17,734 20,778 25,034 31,084 40,937 54,203 89,489 145,066 NA NA
08-Aug 23 43 1,737 2,208 2,939 3,491 4,078 4,988 5,949 6,741 8,075 9,377 11,178 13,097 15,780 19,593 25,803 34,165 56,406 91,437 NA NA NA
07-Aug 7 21 1,049 1,397 1,659 1,938 2,371 2,828 3,204 3,838 4,457 5,313 6,225 7,500 9,312 12,264 16,239 26,810 43,459 NA NA NA NA
06-Aug 6 13 899 1,068 1,247 1,526 1,820 2,062 2,470 2,868 3,419 4,006 4,826 5,993 7,892 10,450 17,252 27,967 NA NA NA NA NA
05-Aug 0 7 567 663 811 967 1,096 1,312 1,524 1,817 2,129 2,565 3,185 4,194 5,553 9,169 14,863 NA NA NA NA NA NA
04-Aug 0 7 663 811 967 1,096 1,312 1,524 1,817 2,129 2,565 3,185 4,194 5,553 9,169 14,863 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
03-Aug 0 7 811 967 1,096 1,312 1,524 1,817 2,129 2,565 3,185 4,194 5,553 9,169 14,863 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
02-Aug 0 7 967 1,096 1,312 1,524 1,817 2,129 2,565 3,185 4,194 5,553 9,169 14,863 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
01-Aug 7 7 1,096 1,312 1,524 1,817 2,129 2,565 3,185 4,194 5,553 9,169 14,863 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA

Proportion complete

Date 10 Days Early 9 Days Early 8 Days Early 7 Days Early 6 Days Early 5 Days Early 4 Days Early 3 Days Early 2 Days Early 1 Days Early 10yr Average 1 Days Late 2 Days Late 3 Days Late 4 Days Late 5 Days Late 6 Days Late 7 Days Late 8 Days Late 9 Days Late 10 Days Late
30-Nov NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
29-Nov NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
28-Nov NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
27-Nov NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
26-Nov NA NA NA NA NA NA 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
25-Nov NA NA NA NA NA 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
24-Nov NA NA NA NA 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
23-Nov NA NA NA 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
22-Nov NA NA 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
21-Nov NA 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
20-Nov 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
19-Nov 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
18-Nov 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
17-Nov 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
16-Nov 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
15-Nov 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
14-Nov 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
13-Nov 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
12-Nov 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
11-Nov 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
10-Nov 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
09-Nov 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
08-Nov 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
07-Nov 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
06-Nov 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
05-Nov 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
04-Nov 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
03-Nov 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
02-Nov 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
01-Nov 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
31-Oct 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
30-Oct 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
29-Oct 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
28-Oct 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
27-Oct 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
26-Oct 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
25-Oct 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
24-Oct 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
23-Oct 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
22-Oct 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
21-Oct 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
20-Oct 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
19-Oct 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
18-Oct 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
17-Oct 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
16-Oct 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
15-Oct 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
14-Oct 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
13-Oct 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
12-Oct 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
11-Oct 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
10-Oct 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
09-Oct 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 0.99
08-Oct 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 0.99 0.99
07-Oct 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 0.99 0.99 0.99
06-Oct 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99
05-Oct 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.98
04-Oct 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.98 0.98
03-Oct 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.98 0.98 0.98
02-Oct 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.97
01-Oct 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.97 0.96
30-Sep 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.97 0.96 0.96
29-Sep 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.97 0.96 0.96 0.95
28-Sep 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.97 0.96 0.96 0.95 0.94
27-Sep 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.97 0.96 0.96 0.95 0.94 0.92
26-Sep 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.97 0.96 0.96 0.95 0.94 0.92 0.91
25-Sep 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.97 0.96 0.96 0.95 0.94 0.92 0.91 0.89
24-Sep 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.97 0.96 0.96 0.95 0.94 0.92 0.91 0.89 0.87
23-Sep 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.97 0.96 0.96 0.95 0.94 0.92 0.91 0.89 0.87 0.85
22-Sep 1.00 1.00 1.00 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.97 0.96 0.96 0.95 0.94 0.92 0.91 0.89 0.87 0.85 0.82
21-Sep 1.00 1.00 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.97 0.96 0.96 0.95 0.94 0.92 0.91 0.89 0.87 0.85 0.82 0.78
20-Sep 1.00 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.97 0.96 0.96 0.95 0.94 0.92 0.91 0.89 0.87 0.85 0.82 0.78 0.75
19-Sep 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.97 0.96 0.96 0.95 0.94 0.92 0.91 0.89 0.87 0.85 0.82 0.78 0.75 0.71
18-Sep 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.97 0.96 0.96 0.95 0.94 0.92 0.91 0.89 0.87 0.85 0.82 0.78 0.75 0.71 0.67
17-Sep 0.99 0.99 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.97 0.96 0.96 0.95 0.94 0.92 0.91 0.89 0.87 0.85 0.82 0.78 0.75 0.71 0.67 0.64
16-Sep 0.99 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.97 0.96 0.96 0.95 0.94 0.92 0.91 0.89 0.87 0.85 0.82 0.78 0.75 0.71 0.67 0.64 0.60
15-Sep 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.97 0.96 0.96 0.95 0.94 0.92 0.91 0.89 0.87 0.85 0.82 0.78 0.75 0.71 0.67 0.64 0.60 0.55
14-Sep 0.98 0.98 0.97 0.96 0.96 0.95 0.94 0.92 0.91 0.89 0.87 0.85 0.82 0.78 0.75 0.71 0.67 0.64 0.60 0.55 0.51
13-Sep 0.98 0.97 0.96 0.96 0.95 0.94 0.92 0.91 0.89 0.87 0.85 0.82 0.78 0.75 0.71 0.67 0.64 0.60 0.55 0.51 0.47
12-Sep 0.97 0.96 0.96 0.95 0.94 0.92 0.91 0.89 0.87 0.85 0.82 0.78 0.75 0.71 0.67 0.64 0.60 0.55 0.51 0.47 0.43
11-Sep 0.96 0.96 0.95 0.94 0.92 0.91 0.89 0.87 0.85 0.82 0.78 0.75 0.71 0.67 0.64 0.60 0.55 0.51 0.47 0.43 0.40
10-Sep 0.96 0.95 0.94 0.92 0.91 0.89 0.87 0.85 0.82 0.78 0.75 0.71 0.67 0.64 0.60 0.55 0.51 0.47 0.43 0.40 0.34
09-Sep 0.95 0.94 0.92 0.91 0.89 0.87 0.85 0.82 0.78 0.75 0.71 0.67 0.64 0.60 0.55 0.51 0.47 0.43 0.40 0.34 0.29
08-Sep 0.94 0.92 0.91 0.89 0.87 0.85 0.82 0.78 0.75 0.71 0.67 0.64 0.60 0.55 0.51 0.47 0.43 0.40 0.34 0.29 0.23
07-Sep 0.92 0.91 0.89 0.87 0.85 0.82 0.78 0.75 0.71 0.67 0.64 0.60 0.55 0.51 0.47 0.43 0.40 0.34 0.29 0.23 0.20
06-Sep 0.91 0.89 0.87 0.85 0.82 0.78 0.75 0.71 0.67 0.64 0.60 0.55 0.51 0.47 0.43 0.40 0.34 0.29 0.23 0.20 0.16
05-Sep 0.89 0.87 0.85 0.82 0.78 0.75 0.71 0.67 0.64 0.60 0.55 0.51 0.47 0.43 0.40 0.34 0.29 0.23 0.20 0.16 0.13
04-Sep 0.87 0.85 0.82 0.78 0.75 0.71 0.67 0.64 0.60 0.55 0.51 0.47 0.43 0.40 0.34 0.29 0.23 0.20 0.16 0.13 0.10
03-Sep 0.85 0.82 0.78 0.75 0.71 0.67 0.64 0.60 0.55 0.51 0.47 0.43 0.40 0.34 0.29 0.23 0.20 0.16 0.13 0.10 0.08
02-Sep 0.82 0.78 0.75 0.71 0.67 0.64 0.60 0.55 0.51 0.47 0.43 0.40 0.34 0.29 0.23 0.20 0.16 0.13 0.10 0.08 0.07
01-Sep 0.78 0.75 0.71 0.67 0.64 0.60 0.55 0.51 0.47 0.43 0.40 0.34 0.29 0.23 0.20 0.16 0.13 0.10 0.08 0.07 0.06
31-Aug 0.75 0.71 0.67 0.64 0.60 0.55 0.51 0.47 0.43 0.40 0.34 0.29 0.23 0.20 0.16 0.13 0.10 0.08 0.07 0.06 0.05
30-Aug 0.71 0.67 0.64 0.60 0.55 0.51 0.47 0.43 0.40 0.34 0.29 0.23 0.20 0.16 0.13 0.10 0.08 0.07 0.06 0.05 0.04
29-Aug 0.67 0.64 0.60 0.55 0.51 0.47 0.43 0.40 0.34 0.29 0.23 0.20 0.16 0.13 0.10 0.08 0.07 0.06 0.05 0.04 0.03
28-Aug 0.64 0.60 0.55 0.51 0.47 0.43 0.40 0.34 0.29 0.23 0.20 0.16 0.13 0.10 0.08 0.07 0.06 0.05 0.04 0.03 0.02
27-Aug 0.60 0.55 0.51 0.47 0.43 0.40 0.34 0.29 0.23 0.20 0.16 0.13 0.10 0.08 0.07 0.06 0.05 0.04 0.03 0.02 0.02
26-Aug 0.55 0.51 0.47 0.43 0.40 0.34 0.29 0.23 0.20 0.16 0.13 0.10 0.08 0.07 0.06 0.05 0.04 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.01
25-Aug 0.51 0.47 0.43 0.40 0.34 0.29 0.23 0.20 0.16 0.13 0.10 0.08 0.07 0.06 0.05 0.04 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.01
24-Aug 0.47 0.43 0.40 0.34 0.29 0.23 0.20 0.16 0.13 0.10 0.08 0.07 0.06 0.05 0.04 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.01
23-Aug 0.43 0.40 0.34 0.29 0.23 0.20 0.16 0.13 0.10 0.08 0.07 0.06 0.05 0.04 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01
22-Aug 0.40 0.34 0.29 0.23 0.20 0.16 0.13 0.10 0.08 0.07 0.06 0.05 0.04 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01
21-Aug 0.34 0.29 0.23 0.20 0.16 0.13 0.10 0.08 0.07 0.06 0.05 0.04 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01
20-Aug 0.29 0.23 0.20 0.16 0.13 0.10 0.08 0.07 0.06 0.05 0.04 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01
19-Aug 0.23 0.20 0.16 0.13 0.10 0.08 0.07 0.06 0.05 0.04 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.00
18-Aug 0.20 0.16 0.13 0.10 0.08 0.07 0.06 0.05 0.04 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00
17-Aug 0.16 0.13 0.10 0.08 0.07 0.06 0.05 0.04 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00
16-Aug 0.13 0.10 0.08 0.07 0.06 0.05 0.04 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
15-Aug 0.10 0.08 0.07 0.06 0.05 0.04 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
14-Aug 0.08 0.07 0.06 0.05 0.04 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
13-Aug 0.07 0.06 0.05 0.04 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
12-Aug 0.06 0.05 0.04 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
11-Aug 0.05 0.04 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
10-Aug 0.04 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 NA
09-Aug 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 NA NA
08-Aug 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 NA NA NA
07-Aug 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 NA NA NA NA
06-Aug 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 NA NA NA NA NA
05-Aug 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 NA NA NA NA NA NA
04-Aug 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
03-Aug 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
02-Aug 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
01-Aug 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
5-year average

Prediction

Date Daily counts Cumulative count 10 Days Early 9 Days Early 8 Days Early 7 Days Early 6 Days Early 5 Days Early 4 Days Early 3 Days Early 2 Days Early 1 Days Early 5yr Average 1 Days Late 2 Days Late 3 Days Late 4 Days Late 5 Days Late 6 Days Late 7 Days Late 8 Days Late 9 Days Late 10 Days Late
01-Sep 3,433 31,209 35,877 36,918 38,151 39,837 41,695 44,373 46,723 49,197 52,856 55,772 61,050 71,469 86,234 111,622 135,501 165,579 202,470 258,524 310,939 355,476 434,819
31-Aug 4,042 27,775 32,857 33,954 35,454 37,108 39,491 41,583 43,785 47,041 49,636 54,334 63,607 76,747 99,341 120,594 147,362 180,194 230,082 276,730 316,368 386,981 455,520
30-Aug 4,632 23,733 29,013 30,295 31,708 33,744 35,531 37,413 40,195 42,413 46,426 54,350 65,578 84,884 103,044 125,917 153,971 196,598 236,458 270,327 330,665 389,229 455,730
29-Aug 4,790 19,101 24,382 25,519 27,158 28,597 30,111 32,350 34,135 37,366 43,743 52,779 68,318 82,933 101,342 123,921 158,229 190,309 217,568 266,130 313,264 366,786 465,774
28-Aug 2,617 14,311 19,120 20,348 21,425 22,560 24,238 25,575 27,995 32,773 39,543 51,185 62,135 75,928 92,844 118,548 142,584 163,007 199,390 234,704 274,804 348,968 478,307
27-Aug 683 11,694 16,626 17,507 18,434 19,805 20,897 22,875 26,779 32,311 41,824 50,771 62,041 75,864 96,867 116,507 133,195 162,924 191,779 224,546 285,145 390,829 528,402
26-Aug 756 11,011 16,485 17,358 18,649 19,677 21,540 25,216 30,425 39,382 47,807 58,419 71,435 91,212 109,705 125,419 153,412 180,583 211,437 268,499 368,013 497,555 790,164
25-Aug 1,799 10,255 16,165 17,367 18,326 20,060 23,484 28,335 36,677 44,523 54,406 66,528 84,946 102,169 116,803 142,873 168,178 196,911 250,053 342,731 463,373 735,881 955,842
24-Aug 2,954 8,456 14,321 15,111 16,542 19,365 23,365 30,244 36,714 44,864 54,859 70,047 84,249 96,316 117,814 138,680 162,374 206,196 282,618 382,101 606,812 788,193 932,414
23-Aug 2,039 5,502 9,832 10,763 12,600 15,202 19,678 23,888 29,190 35,694 45,576 54,816 62,668 76,655 90,232 105,648 134,160 183,885 248,612 394,820 512,835 606,671 762,639
22-Aug 1,007 3,463 6,774 7,930 9,569 12,386 15,036 18,373 22,467 28,687 34,503 39,445 48,249 56,794 66,498 84,444 115,742 156,483 248,510 322,792 381,855 480,025 572,597
21-Aug 380 2,456 5,625 6,787 8,785 10,665 13,032 15,936 20,348 24,473 27,978 34,223 40,285 47,167 59,897 82,096 110,995 176,270 228,958 270,852 340,485 406,147 444,468
20-Aug 747 2,077 5,738 7,428 9,017 11,018 13,473 17,203 20,691 23,654 28,934 34,058 39,877 50,640 69,408 93,840 149,027 193,572 228,991 287,862 343,376 375,774 441,615
19-Aug 442 1,330 4,757 5,775 7,057 8,629 11,018 13,252 15,150 18,531 21,813 25,540 32,433 44,454 60,102 95,447 123,977 146,662 184,367 219,922 240,673 282,842 343,356
18-Aug 210 888 3,854 4,709 5,759 7,353 8,844 10,111 12,367 14,558 17,045 21,645 29,667 40,110 63,699 82,739 97,878 123,041 146,770 160,618 188,760 229,146 303,389
17-Aug 56 678 3,595 4,396 5,613 6,751 7,718 9,440 11,112 13,011 16,522 22,646 30,618 48,624 63,158 74,714 93,922 112,035 122,606 144,088 174,916 231,588 275,229
16-Aug 24 622 4,033 5,150 6,194 7,081 8,661 10,195 11,937 15,159 20,777 28,091 44,611 57,945 68,548 86,171 102,789 112,487 132,196 160,480 212,475 252,514 284,782
15-Aug 138 598 4,951 5,955 6,807 8,327 9,802 11,476 14,574 19,975 27,006 42,889 55,708 65,901 82,844 98,820 108,144 127,093 154,284 204,272 242,765 273,787 336,822
14-Aug 36 460 4,584 5,240 6,410 7,545 8,834 11,218 15,376 20,789 33,015 42,883 50,730 63,772 76,070 83,248 97,834 118,765 157,245 186,876 210,756 259,279 323,957
13-Aug 74 424 4,829 5,906 6,953 8,140 10,337 14,169 19,156 30,422 39,515 46,745 58,763 70,095 76,709 90,150 109,437 144,895 172,199 194,203 238,915 298,512 410,056
12-Aug 146 350 4,880 5,744 6,725 8,540 11,706 15,826 25,133 32,646 38,619 48,548 57,910 63,374 74,478 90,413 119,706 142,264 160,443 197,382 246,620 338,773 586,719
11-Aug 99 204 3,345 3,916 4,973 6,816 9,215 14,635 19,009 22,487 28,269 33,720 36,902 43,368 52,646 69,703 82,838 93,424 114,933 143,603 197,263 341,639 509,844
10-Aug 37 105 2,025 2,571 3,524 4,764 7,566 9,828 11,626 14,615 17,434 19,079 22,421 27,218 36,037 42,828 48,301 59,421 74,244 101,987 176,630 263,594 NA
09-Aug 25 69 1,679 2,301 3,111 4,941 6,418 7,592 9,544 11,384 12,458 14,641 17,774 23,532 27,967 31,540 38,802 48,481 66,597 115,339 172,126 NA NA
08-Aug 23 43 1,450 1,961 3,114 4,045 4,785 6,016 7,176 7,853 9,229 11,203 14,833 17,628 19,880 24,458 30,558 41,977 72,700 108,494 NA NA NA
07-Aug 7 21 932 1,480 1,923 2,274 2,859 3,411 3,732 4,386 5,325 7,050 8,378 9,449 11,624 14,524 19,951 34,554 51,566 NA NA NA NA
06-Aug 6 13 953 1,237 1,464 1,840 2,195 2,402 2,823 3,427 4,537 5,392 6,081 7,481 9,347 12,839 22,236 33,184 NA NA NA NA NA
05-Aug 0 7 658 778 978 1,166 1,276 1,500 1,821 2,411 2,865 3,231 3,975 4,967 6,823 11,817 17,635 NA NA NA NA NA NA
04-Aug 0 7 778 978 1,166 1,276 1,500 1,821 2,411 2,865 3,231 3,975 4,967 6,823 11,817 17,635 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
03-Aug 0 7 978 1,166 1,276 1,500 1,821 2,411 2,865 3,231 3,975 4,967 6,823 11,817 17,635 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
02-Aug 0 7 1,166 1,276 1,500 1,821 2,411 2,865 3,231 3,975 4,967 6,823 11,817 17,635 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
01-Aug 7 7 1,276 1,500 1,821 2,411 2,865 3,231 3,975 4,967 6,823 11,817 17,635 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA

Proportion complete

Date 10 Days Early 9 Days Early 8 Days Early 7 Days Early 6 Days Early 5 Days Early 4 Days Early 3 Days Early 2 Days Early 1 Days Early 5yr Average 1 Days Late 2 Days Late 3 Days Late 4 Days Late 5 Days Late 6 Days Late 7 Days Late 8 Days Late 9 Days Late 10 Days Late
30-Nov NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
29-Nov NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
28-Nov NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
27-Nov NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
26-Nov NA NA NA NA NA NA 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
25-Nov NA NA NA NA NA 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
24-Nov NA NA NA NA 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
23-Nov NA NA NA 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
22-Nov NA NA 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
21-Nov NA 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
20-Nov 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
19-Nov 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
18-Nov 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
17-Nov 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
16-Nov 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
15-Nov 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
14-Nov 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
13-Nov 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
12-Nov 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
11-Nov 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
10-Nov 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
09-Nov 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
08-Nov 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
07-Nov 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
06-Nov 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
05-Nov 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
04-Nov 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
03-Nov 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
02-Nov 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
01-Nov 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
31-Oct 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
30-Oct 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
29-Oct 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
28-Oct 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
27-Oct 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
26-Oct 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
25-Oct 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
24-Oct 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
23-Oct 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
22-Oct 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
21-Oct 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
20-Oct 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
19-Oct 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
18-Oct 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
17-Oct 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
16-Oct 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
15-Oct 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
14-Oct 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
13-Oct 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
12-Oct 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
11-Oct 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
10-Oct 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
09-Oct 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
08-Oct 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
07-Oct 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 0.99
06-Oct 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 0.99 0.99
05-Oct 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 0.99 0.99 0.99
04-Oct 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99
03-Oct 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99
02-Oct 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99
01-Oct 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.98
30-Sep 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.98 0.98
29-Sep 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.98 0.98 0.98
28-Sep 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.97
27-Sep 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.97 0.96
26-Sep 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.97 0.96 0.95
25-Sep 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.97 0.96 0.95 0.94
24-Sep 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.97 0.96 0.95 0.94 0.93
23-Sep 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.97 0.96 0.95 0.94 0.93 0.91
22-Sep 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.97 0.96 0.95 0.94 0.93 0.91 0.90
21-Sep 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.97 0.96 0.95 0.94 0.93 0.91 0.90 0.87
20-Sep 1.00 1.00 1.00 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.97 0.96 0.95 0.94 0.93 0.91 0.90 0.87 0.85
19-Sep 1.00 1.00 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.97 0.96 0.95 0.94 0.93 0.91 0.90 0.87 0.85 0.82
18-Sep 1.00 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.97 0.96 0.95 0.94 0.93 0.91 0.90 0.87 0.85 0.82 0.78
17-Sep 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.97 0.96 0.95 0.94 0.93 0.91 0.90 0.87 0.85 0.82 0.78 0.75
16-Sep 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.97 0.96 0.95 0.94 0.93 0.91 0.90 0.87 0.85 0.82 0.78 0.75 0.70
15-Sep 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.97 0.96 0.95 0.94 0.93 0.91 0.90 0.87 0.85 0.82 0.78 0.75 0.70 0.67
14-Sep 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.97 0.96 0.95 0.94 0.93 0.91 0.90 0.87 0.85 0.82 0.78 0.75 0.70 0.67 0.63
13-Sep 0.99 0.99 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.97 0.96 0.95 0.94 0.93 0.91 0.90 0.87 0.85 0.82 0.78 0.75 0.70 0.67 0.63 0.59
12-Sep 0.99 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.97 0.96 0.95 0.94 0.93 0.91 0.90 0.87 0.85 0.82 0.78 0.75 0.70 0.67 0.63 0.59 0.56
11-Sep 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.97 0.96 0.95 0.94 0.93 0.91 0.90 0.87 0.85 0.82 0.78 0.75 0.70 0.67 0.63 0.59 0.56 0.51
10-Sep 0.98 0.98 0.97 0.96 0.95 0.94 0.93 0.91 0.90 0.87 0.85 0.82 0.78 0.75 0.70 0.67 0.63 0.59 0.56 0.51 0.44
09-Sep 0.98 0.97 0.96 0.95 0.94 0.93 0.91 0.90 0.87 0.85 0.82 0.78 0.75 0.70 0.67 0.63 0.59 0.56 0.51 0.44 0.36
08-Sep 0.97 0.96 0.95 0.94 0.93 0.91 0.90 0.87 0.85 0.82 0.78 0.75 0.70 0.67 0.63 0.59 0.56 0.51 0.44 0.36 0.28
07-Sep 0.96 0.95 0.94 0.93 0.91 0.90 0.87 0.85 0.82 0.78 0.75 0.70 0.67 0.63 0.59 0.56 0.51 0.44 0.36 0.28 0.23
06-Sep 0.95 0.94 0.93 0.91 0.90 0.87 0.85 0.82 0.78 0.75 0.70 0.67 0.63 0.59 0.56 0.51 0.44 0.36 0.28 0.23 0.19
05-Sep 0.94 0.93 0.91 0.90 0.87 0.85 0.82 0.78 0.75 0.70 0.67 0.63 0.59 0.56 0.51 0.44 0.36 0.28 0.23 0.19 0.15
04-Sep 0.93 0.91 0.90 0.87 0.85 0.82 0.78 0.75 0.70 0.67 0.63 0.59 0.56 0.51 0.44 0.36 0.28 0.23 0.19 0.15 0.12
03-Sep 0.91 0.90 0.87 0.85 0.82 0.78 0.75 0.70 0.67 0.63 0.59 0.56 0.51 0.44 0.36 0.28 0.23 0.19 0.15 0.12 0.10
02-Sep 0.90 0.87 0.85 0.82 0.78 0.75 0.70 0.67 0.63 0.59 0.56 0.51 0.44 0.36 0.28 0.23 0.19 0.15 0.12 0.10 0.09
01-Sep 0.87 0.85 0.82 0.78 0.75 0.70 0.67 0.63 0.59 0.56 0.51 0.44 0.36 0.28 0.23 0.19 0.15 0.12 0.10 0.09 0.07
31-Aug 0.85 0.82 0.78 0.75 0.70 0.67 0.63 0.59 0.56 0.51 0.44 0.36 0.28 0.23 0.19 0.15 0.12 0.10 0.09 0.07 0.06
30-Aug 0.82 0.78 0.75 0.70 0.67 0.63 0.59 0.56 0.51 0.44 0.36 0.28 0.23 0.19 0.15 0.12 0.10 0.09 0.07 0.06 0.05
29-Aug 0.78 0.75 0.70 0.67 0.63 0.59 0.56 0.51 0.44 0.36 0.28 0.23 0.19 0.15 0.12 0.10 0.09 0.07 0.06 0.05 0.04
28-Aug 0.75 0.70 0.67 0.63 0.59 0.56 0.51 0.44 0.36 0.28 0.23 0.19 0.15 0.12 0.10 0.09 0.07 0.06 0.05 0.04 0.03
27-Aug 0.70 0.67 0.63 0.59 0.56 0.51 0.44 0.36 0.28 0.23 0.19 0.15 0.12 0.10 0.09 0.07 0.06 0.05 0.04 0.03 0.02
26-Aug 0.67 0.63 0.59 0.56 0.51 0.44 0.36 0.28 0.23 0.19 0.15 0.12 0.10 0.09 0.07 0.06 0.05 0.04 0.03 0.02 0.01
25-Aug 0.63 0.59 0.56 0.51 0.44 0.36 0.28 0.23 0.19 0.15 0.12 0.10 0.09 0.07 0.06 0.05 0.04 0.03 0.02 0.01 0.01
24-Aug 0.59 0.56 0.51 0.44 0.36 0.28 0.23 0.19 0.15 0.12 0.10 0.09 0.07 0.06 0.05 0.04 0.03 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.01
23-Aug 0.56 0.51 0.44 0.36 0.28 0.23 0.19 0.15 0.12 0.10 0.09 0.07 0.06 0.05 0.04 0.03 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01
22-Aug 0.51 0.44 0.36 0.28 0.23 0.19 0.15 0.12 0.10 0.09 0.07 0.06 0.05 0.04 0.03 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01
21-Aug 0.44 0.36 0.28 0.23 0.19 0.15 0.12 0.10 0.09 0.07 0.06 0.05 0.04 0.03 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01
20-Aug 0.36 0.28 0.23 0.19 0.15 0.12 0.10 0.09 0.07 0.06 0.05 0.04 0.03 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.00
19-Aug 0.28 0.23 0.19 0.15 0.12 0.10 0.09 0.07 0.06 0.05 0.04 0.03 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00
18-Aug 0.23 0.19 0.15 0.12 0.10 0.09 0.07 0.06 0.05 0.04 0.03 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00
17-Aug 0.19 0.15 0.12 0.10 0.09 0.07 0.06 0.05 0.04 0.03 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
16-Aug 0.15 0.12 0.10 0.09 0.07 0.06 0.05 0.04 0.03 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
15-Aug 0.12 0.10 0.09 0.07 0.06 0.05 0.04 0.03 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
14-Aug 0.10 0.09 0.07 0.06 0.05 0.04 0.03 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
13-Aug 0.09 0.07 0.06 0.05 0.04 0.03 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
12-Aug 0.07 0.06 0.05 0.04 0.03 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
11-Aug 0.06 0.05 0.04 0.03 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
10-Aug 0.05 0.04 0.03 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 NA
09-Aug 0.04 0.03 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 NA NA
08-Aug 0.03 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 NA NA NA
07-Aug 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 NA NA NA NA
06-Aug 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 NA NA NA NA NA
05-Aug 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 NA NA NA NA NA NA
04-Aug 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
03-Aug 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
02-Aug 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
01-Aug 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA

Bright

The cumulative fall season Bright adult Chinook passage at Bonneville Dam through September 01, 2025 is 97,706. The 10-year (2015–2024) average proportion of the count that has occurred at Bonneville Dam through September 01 is 26.4%. Based on the cumulative counts to date and this proportion, the expected total fall (Aug 1–Oct 30) season dam count would be 370,480 (95% prediction interval = 210,996 – 754,474 and 50% prediction interval = 299,300 – 466,792) adult Chinook.

Current year

Daily adult chinook salmon counts, flow, and temperature measurements taken at Bonneville Dam.

Percent complete

Percent of the run complete by date in 2010–2024. Lower and upper hinges correspond to the first and third quartiles (the 25th and 75th percentiles).The upper whisker extends from the hinge to the largest value no further than 1.5 * IQR from the hinge (where IQR is the inter-quartile range, or distance between the first and third quartiles). The lower whisker extends from the hinge to the smallest value at most 1.5 * IQR of the hinge. Data beyond the end of the whiskers are called "outlying" points and are plotted individually.

Prediction error

Mean absolute percent error (over 15 year retrospectiv) of predictions based on cumulative counts and 10-year average run timing, by day of year.

Run size predictions
Prediction table
Predictions of the fall season (Mar 1–Jun 15) total adult Chinook salmon count with prediction intervals (50% and 95%) and the mean absolute percent error (MAPE) of predictions made with counts through September 01 in a 15-year retrospective assesment.
Model Pred Lo 951 Lo 501 Hi 501 Hi 951 MAPE
DLM 327,333 129,685 238,020 450,160 826,210 33%
ARIMA 374,812 203,443 303,607 462,923 693,146 23%
Joint_Lik 314,429 229,966 280,557 354,576 452,830 —
10-year ave. timing 370,480 210,996 299,300 466,792 754,474 29%
1 Prediction intervals for different model types are calculated using different methods, which complicates comparison somewhat. See Methods Description for more detail.
Prediction plot

Daily predictions of total counts at Bonneville from different models.

Prediction interval plot

Daily predictions and prediction intervals (95% and 50%). Prediction intervals for different model types are calculated using different methods, so may not be directly comparable. See Methods Description for more details.

Covariate effects
Fitted coefficients, covariate values, and effects (coefficient * covariate) for the DLM and ARIMA models. Covariates are the log of the jack returns in the previous years, the log of the cumulative adult counts to date, and an interaction between the cumulative counts and a moving average of river discharge.
Model1
coef
covar
effect
intercept log lag jack log cum cnt cnt by flow log lag jack log cum cnt cnt by flow log lag jack log cum cnt cnt by flow
DLM −0.05 −0.09 0.29 0.03 0.63 0.49 −0.85 −0.06 0.14 −0.02
ARIMA 12.69 0.17 0.12 0.04 0.63 0.52 −0.91 0.11 0.06 −0.03
1 The response and the covariates are z-scored before fitting the DLM, but the response is not standardized for the ARIMA model
Fitted coefficient, covariate value, and effect (coefficient * covariate) for the log transformed and z-scaled moving average of river discharge in the linear predictor of the proportion of the run that is complete within the joint-likelihood model.
Coefficient Covariate Effect
−0.14 −0.76 0.11
Methods description

DLM

This is a penalized dynamic linear model fit with the Sibregresr package. The coefficients are the:

  1. log-transformed total count of jacks at Bonneville Dam in the previous year,
  2. log-transformed cumulative adult count at Bonneville Dam in the current year,
  3. and interaction between an exponential moving average of river discharge and the cumulative adult count.

The prediction interval is based on the standard deviation (in log-space) of forecasts from a 15-year retrospective. In other words, the root mean square error of the forecast error in log space from a 15-year retrospective is used as the standard deviation in a lognormal prediction interval.

ARIMA

This is an ensemble of ARIMA models fit with the SalmonForecasting package (see README at the linked page for details). The covariates are the same as those described above for the DLM. Prediction intervals are the weighted average of the prediction intervals provided by the forecast::forecast() function in R.

Joint likelihood

This is a version of a model that has been used for this purpose of in-season forecasting for several years. The proportion of the run that is complete on a given day is modeled with autoregressive (order 1) errors and an effect of the river discharge covariate. The pre-season forecast is generated using an age-specific sibling regression. I have not yet implemented a retrospective assessment of performance because, in this version, the pre-season forecasts and prediction uncertainty need to be provided, and I have not pulled in the past 15 years’ forecasts.

10 year average run timing

This method takes the 10-year average of the proportion of the run that was complete on a given day and uses it to expand the cumulative counts to date. Performance and prediction intervals are based on a 15-year retrospective as described above for the DLM but assuming a normal prediction distribution for the proportion complete in logit space.

Average timing info
10-year average

Prediction

Date Daily counts Cumulative count 10 Days Early 9 Days Early 8 Days Early 7 Days Early 6 Days Early 5 Days Early 4 Days Early 3 Days Early 2 Days Early 1 Days Early 10yr Average 1 Days Late 2 Days Late 3 Days Late 4 Days Late 5 Days Late 6 Days Late 7 Days Late 8 Days Late 9 Days Late 10 Days Late
01-Sep 8,391 97,706 170,921 183,805 195,702 209,453 226,594 242,078 260,666 284,370 310,316 339,023 370,480 419,157 477,210 534,795 601,715 690,578 810,432 947,476 1,116,751 1,249,717 1,387,183
31-Aug 13,725 89,315 168,021 178,896 191,466 207,135 221,289 238,281 259,949 283,667 309,909 338,664 383,161 436,229 488,869 550,042 631,274 740,835 866,111 1,020,849 1,142,396 1,268,057 1,459,014
30-Aug 10,910 75,590 151,404 162,042 175,304 187,283 201,664 220,002 240,075 262,285 286,621 324,280 369,192 413,743 465,515 534,264 626,989 733,013 863,972 966,841 1,073,191 1,234,803 1,400,164
29-Aug 11,072 64,680 138,655 150,002 160,252 172,557 188,249 205,425 224,429 245,252 277,476 315,906 354,027 398,327 457,153 536,495 627,216 739,274 827,296 918,296 1,056,583 1,198,077 1,354,309
28-Aug 6,006 53,608 124,325 132,820 143,019 156,025 170,260 186,011 203,270 229,978 261,830 293,425 330,142 378,898 444,658 519,850 612,726 685,680 761,103 875,718 992,992 1,122,480 1,299,869
27-Aug 2,249 47,602 117,939 126,995 138,543 151,184 165,170 180,495 204,211 232,494 260,549 293,152 336,445 394,838 461,605 544,075 608,855 675,827 777,600 881,734 996,714 1,154,227 1,328,071
26-Aug 1,956 45,353 120,995 131,997 144,041 157,366 171,968 194,562 221,509 248,239 279,301 320,549 376,183 439,795 518,368 580,088 643,896 740,861 840,075 949,622 1,099,693 1,265,323 1,461,716
25-Aug 4,703 43,397 126,306 137,830 150,581 164,552 186,173 211,958 237,535 267,258 306,727 359,962 420,832 496,017 555,075 616,132 708,916 803,851 908,676 1,052,276 1,210,764 1,398,688 1,577,525
24-Aug 7,894 38,694 122,894 134,263 146,721 165,999 188,989 211,795 238,297 273,489 320,955 375,229 442,267 494,926 549,366 632,095 716,743 810,208 938,248 1,079,561 1,247,122 1,406,579 1,603,225
23-Aug 5,243 30,800 106,872 116,788 132,133 150,433 168,586 189,682 217,694 255,477 298,678 352,039 393,955 437,289 503,141 570,520 644,917 746,834 859,318 992,695 1,119,621 1,276,149 1,464,186
22-Aug 2,101 25,557 96,908 109,641 124,826 139,889 157,394 180,638 211,989 247,836 292,114 326,895 362,852 417,495 473,404 535,137 619,706 713,043 823,716 929,036 1,058,919 1,214,948 1,379,296
21-Aug 2,091 23,457 100,630 114,567 128,391 144,457 165,791 194,565 227,467 268,105 300,027 333,030 383,181 434,495 491,154 568,773 654,438 756,014 852,679 971,887 1,115,092 1,265,932 1,454,537
20-Aug 3,579 21,366 104,354 116,947 131,580 151,013 177,222 207,190 244,207 273,283 303,343 349,024 395,764 447,373 518,072 596,102 688,624 776,671 885,253 1,015,693 1,153,087 1,324,880 1,524,360
19-Aug 3,629 17,787 97,359 109,542 125,719 147,539 172,488 203,304 227,511 252,536 290,566 329,477 372,442 431,300 496,260 573,285 646,586 736,981 845,573 959,955 1,102,974 1,269,043 1,455,889
18-Aug 1,231 14,158 87,191 100,067 117,435 137,293 161,821 181,089 201,008 231,278 262,250 296,448 343,296 395,001 456,310 514,654 586,605 673,040 764,083 877,920 1,010,104 1,158,825 1,304,120
17-Aug 757 12,927 91,365 107,222 125,353 147,749 165,340 183,527 211,165 239,443 270,667 313,442 360,650 416,628 469,898 535,591 614,509 697,635 801,572 922,261 1,058,049 1,190,709 1,367,096
16-Aug 562 12,170 100,943 118,013 139,097 155,658 172,780 198,799 225,422 254,817 295,087 339,531 392,230 442,381 504,228 578,524 656,782 754,633 868,254 996,091 1,120,982 1,287,040 1,550,518
15-Aug 379 11,607 112,558 132,667 148,464 164,794 189,611 215,003 243,039 281,448 323,838 374,101 421,934 480,922 551,784 626,425 719,753 828,122 950,050 1,069,169 1,227,552 1,478,851 1,845,464
14-Aug 895 11,228 128,334 143,614 159,411 183,417 207,980 235,101 272,254 313,260 361,881 408,152 465,213 533,761 605,963 696,243 801,072 919,017 1,034,245 1,187,455 1,430,545 1,785,184 2,223,068
13-Aug 1,079 10,333 132,172 146,710 168,803 191,409 216,369 250,563 288,301 333,049 375,632 428,147 491,234 557,684 640,770 737,248 845,795 951,843 1,092,845 1,316,567 1,642,950 2,045,947 2,745,098
12-Aug 1,386 9,254 131,387 151,173 171,417 193,770 224,392 258,189 298,263 336,399 383,429 439,926 499,436 573,844 660,245 757,455 852,426 978,702 1,179,057 1,471,350 1,832,256 2,458,383 3,708,420
11-Aug 1,548 7,868 128,524 145,735 164,739 190,773 219,507 253,576 285,999 325,983 374,015 424,609 487,870 561,325 643,971 724,714 832,070 1,002,408 1,250,909 1,557,743 2,090,062 3,152,816 6,458,287
10-Aug 1,499 6,319 117,053 132,318 153,228 176,306 203,671 229,713 261,827 300,407 341,043 391,854 450,853 517,234 582,086 668,314 805,128 1,004,723 1,251,170 1,678,726 2,532,323 5,187,259 NA
09-Aug 1,225 4,820 100,924 116,873 134,476 155,348 175,211 199,706 229,132 260,127 298,882 343,883 394,515 443,980 509,749 614,103 766,341 954,316 1,280,430 1,931,502 3,956,525 NA NA
08-Aug 943 3,595 87,172 100,301 115,869 130,684 148,954 170,902 194,020 222,926 256,491 294,255 331,150 380,205 458,039 571,589 711,793 955,030 1,440,643 2,951,041 NA NA NA
07-Aug 725 2,652 73,996 85,481 96,411 109,889 126,081 143,136 164,461 189,224 217,084 244,302 280,492 337,913 421,683 525,117 704,563 1,062,818 2,177,097 NA NA NA NA
06-Aug 331 1,928 62,126 70,069 79,865 91,633 104,028 119,527 137,523 157,771 177,553 203,855 245,587 306,469 381,643 512,059 772,431 1,582,263 NA NA NA NA NA
05-Aug 210 1,597 58,045 66,160 75,908 86,176 99,015 113,923 130,697 147,084 168,872 203,443 253,877 316,151 424,187 639,878 1,310,738 NA NA NA NA NA NA
04-Aug 198 1,387 57,459 65,925 74,843 85,993 98,941 113,508 127,740 146,663 176,687 220,489 274,572 368,401 555,725 1,138,357 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
03-Aug 325 1,189 56,513 64,157 73,716 84,814 97,302 109,502 125,723 151,461 189,008 235,370 315,802 476,380 975,826 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
02-Aug 442 864 46,617 53,563 61,627 70,701 79,565 91,352 110,053 137,336 171,022 229,465 346,143 709,047 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
01-Aug 422 422 26,154 30,092 34,523 38,852 44,607 53,739 67,061 83,510 112,047 169,021 346,226 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA

Proportion complete

Date 10 Days Early 9 Days Early 8 Days Early 7 Days Early 6 Days Early 5 Days Early 4 Days Early 3 Days Early 2 Days Early 1 Days Early 10yr Average 1 Days Late 2 Days Late 3 Days Late 4 Days Late 5 Days Late 6 Days Late 7 Days Late 8 Days Late 9 Days Late 10 Days Late
30-Nov NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
29-Nov NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
28-Nov NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
27-Nov NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
26-Nov NA NA NA NA NA NA 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
25-Nov NA NA NA NA NA 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
24-Nov NA NA NA NA 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
23-Nov NA NA NA 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
22-Nov NA NA 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
21-Nov NA 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
20-Nov 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
19-Nov 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
18-Nov 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
17-Nov 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
16-Nov 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
15-Nov 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
14-Nov 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
13-Nov 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
12-Nov 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
11-Nov 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 0.99
10-Nov 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 0.99 0.99
09-Nov 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 0.99 0.99 0.99
08-Nov 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99
07-Nov 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99
06-Nov 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99
05-Nov 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99
04-Nov 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99
03-Nov 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99
02-Nov 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99
01-Nov 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99
31-Oct 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99
30-Oct 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99
29-Oct 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.98
28-Oct 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.98 0.98
27-Oct 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.98 0.98 0.98
26-Oct 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.98
25-Oct 1.00 1.00 1.00 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.98
24-Oct 1.00 1.00 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.98
23-Oct 1.00 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.97
22-Oct 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.97 0.97
21-Oct 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.97 0.97 0.97
20-Oct 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.97 0.97 0.97 0.97
19-Oct 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.97 0.97 0.97 0.97 0.96
18-Oct 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.97 0.97 0.97 0.97 0.96 0.96
17-Oct 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.97 0.97 0.97 0.97 0.96 0.96 0.95
16-Oct 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.97 0.97 0.97 0.97 0.96 0.96 0.95 0.95
15-Oct 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.97 0.97 0.97 0.97 0.96 0.96 0.95 0.95 0.95
14-Oct 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.97 0.97 0.97 0.97 0.96 0.96 0.95 0.95 0.95 0.94
13-Oct 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.97 0.97 0.97 0.97 0.96 0.96 0.95 0.95 0.95 0.94 0.94
12-Oct 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.97 0.97 0.97 0.97 0.96 0.96 0.95 0.95 0.95 0.94 0.94 0.93
11-Oct 0.99 0.99 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.97 0.97 0.97 0.97 0.96 0.96 0.95 0.95 0.95 0.94 0.94 0.93 0.92
10-Oct 0.99 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.97 0.97 0.97 0.97 0.96 0.96 0.95 0.95 0.95 0.94 0.94 0.93 0.92 0.92
09-Oct 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.97 0.97 0.97 0.97 0.96 0.96 0.95 0.95 0.95 0.94 0.94 0.93 0.92 0.92 0.91
08-Oct 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.97 0.97 0.97 0.97 0.96 0.96 0.95 0.95 0.95 0.94 0.94 0.93 0.92 0.92 0.91 0.90
07-Oct 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.97 0.97 0.97 0.97 0.96 0.96 0.95 0.95 0.95 0.94 0.94 0.93 0.92 0.92 0.91 0.90 0.89
06-Oct 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.97 0.97 0.97 0.97 0.96 0.96 0.95 0.95 0.95 0.94 0.94 0.93 0.92 0.92 0.91 0.90 0.89 0.88
05-Oct 0.98 0.98 0.97 0.97 0.97 0.97 0.96 0.96 0.95 0.95 0.95 0.94 0.94 0.93 0.92 0.92 0.91 0.90 0.89 0.88 0.87
04-Oct 0.98 0.97 0.97 0.97 0.97 0.96 0.96 0.95 0.95 0.95 0.94 0.94 0.93 0.92 0.92 0.91 0.90 0.89 0.88 0.87 0.86
03-Oct 0.97 0.97 0.97 0.97 0.96 0.96 0.95 0.95 0.95 0.94 0.94 0.93 0.92 0.92 0.91 0.90 0.89 0.88 0.87 0.86 0.84
02-Oct 0.97 0.97 0.97 0.96 0.96 0.95 0.95 0.95 0.94 0.94 0.93 0.92 0.92 0.91 0.90 0.89 0.88 0.87 0.86 0.84 0.83
01-Oct 0.97 0.97 0.96 0.96 0.95 0.95 0.95 0.94 0.94 0.93 0.92 0.92 0.91 0.90 0.89 0.88 0.87 0.86 0.84 0.83 0.81
30-Sep 0.97 0.96 0.96 0.95 0.95 0.95 0.94 0.94 0.93 0.92 0.92 0.91 0.90 0.89 0.88 0.87 0.86 0.84 0.83 0.81 0.79
29-Sep 0.96 0.96 0.95 0.95 0.95 0.94 0.94 0.93 0.92 0.92 0.91 0.90 0.89 0.88 0.87 0.86 0.84 0.83 0.81 0.79 0.77
28-Sep 0.96 0.95 0.95 0.95 0.94 0.94 0.93 0.92 0.92 0.91 0.90 0.89 0.88 0.87 0.86 0.84 0.83 0.81 0.79 0.77 0.76
27-Sep 0.95 0.95 0.95 0.94 0.94 0.93 0.92 0.92 0.91 0.90 0.89 0.88 0.87 0.86 0.84 0.83 0.81 0.79 0.77 0.76 0.74
26-Sep 0.95 0.95 0.94 0.94 0.93 0.92 0.92 0.91 0.90 0.89 0.88 0.87 0.86 0.84 0.83 0.81 0.79 0.77 0.76 0.74 0.71
25-Sep 0.95 0.94 0.94 0.93 0.92 0.92 0.91 0.90 0.89 0.88 0.87 0.86 0.84 0.83 0.81 0.79 0.77 0.76 0.74 0.71 0.69
24-Sep 0.94 0.94 0.93 0.92 0.92 0.91 0.90 0.89 0.88 0.87 0.86 0.84 0.83 0.81 0.79 0.77 0.76 0.74 0.71 0.69 0.66
23-Sep 0.94 0.93 0.92 0.92 0.91 0.90 0.89 0.88 0.87 0.86 0.84 0.83 0.81 0.79 0.77 0.76 0.74 0.71 0.69 0.66 0.64
22-Sep 0.93 0.92 0.92 0.91 0.90 0.89 0.88 0.87 0.86 0.84 0.83 0.81 0.79 0.77 0.76 0.74 0.71 0.69 0.66 0.64 0.61
21-Sep 0.92 0.92 0.91 0.90 0.89 0.88 0.87 0.86 0.84 0.83 0.81 0.79 0.77 0.76 0.74 0.71 0.69 0.66 0.64 0.61 0.57
20-Sep 0.92 0.91 0.90 0.89 0.88 0.87 0.86 0.84 0.83 0.81 0.79 0.77 0.76 0.74 0.71 0.69 0.66 0.64 0.61 0.57 0.53
19-Sep 0.91 0.90 0.89 0.88 0.87 0.86 0.84 0.83 0.81 0.79 0.77 0.76 0.74 0.71 0.69 0.66 0.64 0.61 0.57 0.53 0.50
18-Sep 0.90 0.89 0.88 0.87 0.86 0.84 0.83 0.81 0.79 0.77 0.76 0.74 0.71 0.69 0.66 0.64 0.61 0.57 0.53 0.50 0.47
17-Sep 0.89 0.88 0.87 0.86 0.84 0.83 0.81 0.79 0.77 0.76 0.74 0.71 0.69 0.66 0.64 0.61 0.57 0.53 0.50 0.47 0.43
16-Sep 0.88 0.87 0.86 0.84 0.83 0.81 0.79 0.77 0.76 0.74 0.71 0.69 0.66 0.64 0.61 0.57 0.53 0.50 0.47 0.43 0.40
15-Sep 0.87 0.86 0.84 0.83 0.81 0.79 0.77 0.76 0.74 0.71 0.69 0.66 0.64 0.61 0.57 0.53 0.50 0.47 0.43 0.40 0.37
14-Sep 0.86 0.84 0.83 0.81 0.79 0.77 0.76 0.74 0.71 0.69 0.66 0.64 0.61 0.57 0.53 0.50 0.47 0.43 0.40 0.37 0.34
13-Sep 0.84 0.83 0.81 0.79 0.77 0.76 0.74 0.71 0.69 0.66 0.64 0.61 0.57 0.53 0.50 0.47 0.43 0.40 0.37 0.34 0.31
12-Sep 0.83 0.81 0.79 0.77 0.76 0.74 0.71 0.69 0.66 0.64 0.61 0.57 0.53 0.50 0.47 0.43 0.40 0.37 0.34 0.31 0.29
11-Sep 0.81 0.79 0.77 0.76 0.74 0.71 0.69 0.66 0.64 0.61 0.57 0.53 0.50 0.47 0.43 0.40 0.37 0.34 0.31 0.29 0.26
10-Sep 0.79 0.77 0.76 0.74 0.71 0.69 0.66 0.64 0.61 0.57 0.53 0.50 0.47 0.43 0.40 0.37 0.34 0.31 0.29 0.26 0.23
09-Sep 0.77 0.76 0.74 0.71 0.69 0.66 0.64 0.61 0.57 0.53 0.50 0.47 0.43 0.40 0.37 0.34 0.31 0.29 0.26 0.23 0.20
08-Sep 0.76 0.74 0.71 0.69 0.66 0.64 0.61 0.57 0.53 0.50 0.47 0.43 0.40 0.37 0.34 0.31 0.29 0.26 0.23 0.20 0.18
07-Sep 0.74 0.71 0.69 0.66 0.64 0.61 0.57 0.53 0.50 0.47 0.43 0.40 0.37 0.34 0.31 0.29 0.26 0.23 0.20 0.18 0.16
06-Sep 0.71 0.69 0.66 0.64 0.61 0.57 0.53 0.50 0.47 0.43 0.40 0.37 0.34 0.31 0.29 0.26 0.23 0.20 0.18 0.16 0.14
05-Sep 0.69 0.66 0.64 0.61 0.57 0.53 0.50 0.47 0.43 0.40 0.37 0.34 0.31 0.29 0.26 0.23 0.20 0.18 0.16 0.14 0.12
04-Sep 0.66 0.64 0.61 0.57 0.53 0.50 0.47 0.43 0.40 0.37 0.34 0.31 0.29 0.26 0.23 0.20 0.18 0.16 0.14 0.12 0.10
03-Sep 0.64 0.61 0.57 0.53 0.50 0.47 0.43 0.40 0.37 0.34 0.31 0.29 0.26 0.23 0.20 0.18 0.16 0.14 0.12 0.10 0.09
02-Sep 0.61 0.57 0.53 0.50 0.47 0.43 0.40 0.37 0.34 0.31 0.29 0.26 0.23 0.20 0.18 0.16 0.14 0.12 0.10 0.09 0.08
01-Sep 0.57 0.53 0.50 0.47 0.43 0.40 0.37 0.34 0.31 0.29 0.26 0.23 0.20 0.18 0.16 0.14 0.12 0.10 0.09 0.08 0.07
31-Aug 0.53 0.50 0.47 0.43 0.40 0.37 0.34 0.31 0.29 0.26 0.23 0.20 0.18 0.16 0.14 0.12 0.10 0.09 0.08 0.07 0.06
30-Aug 0.50 0.47 0.43 0.40 0.37 0.34 0.31 0.29 0.26 0.23 0.20 0.18 0.16 0.14 0.12 0.10 0.09 0.08 0.07 0.06 0.05
29-Aug 0.47 0.43 0.40 0.37 0.34 0.31 0.29 0.26 0.23 0.20 0.18 0.16 0.14 0.12 0.10 0.09 0.08 0.07 0.06 0.05 0.05
28-Aug 0.43 0.40 0.37 0.34 0.31 0.29 0.26 0.23 0.20 0.18 0.16 0.14 0.12 0.10 0.09 0.08 0.07 0.06 0.05 0.05 0.04
27-Aug 0.40 0.37 0.34 0.31 0.29 0.26 0.23 0.20 0.18 0.16 0.14 0.12 0.10 0.09 0.08 0.07 0.06 0.05 0.05 0.04 0.04
26-Aug 0.37 0.34 0.31 0.29 0.26 0.23 0.20 0.18 0.16 0.14 0.12 0.10 0.09 0.08 0.07 0.06 0.05 0.05 0.04 0.04 0.03
25-Aug 0.34 0.31 0.29 0.26 0.23 0.20 0.18 0.16 0.14 0.12 0.10 0.09 0.08 0.07 0.06 0.05 0.05 0.04 0.04 0.03 0.03
24-Aug 0.31 0.29 0.26 0.23 0.20 0.18 0.16 0.14 0.12 0.10 0.09 0.08 0.07 0.06 0.05 0.05 0.04 0.04 0.03 0.03 0.02
23-Aug 0.29 0.26 0.23 0.20 0.18 0.16 0.14 0.12 0.10 0.09 0.08 0.07 0.06 0.05 0.05 0.04 0.04 0.03 0.03 0.02 0.02
22-Aug 0.26 0.23 0.20 0.18 0.16 0.14 0.12 0.10 0.09 0.08 0.07 0.06 0.05 0.05 0.04 0.04 0.03 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.02
21-Aug 0.23 0.20 0.18 0.16 0.14 0.12 0.10 0.09 0.08 0.07 0.06 0.05 0.05 0.04 0.04 0.03 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02
20-Aug 0.20 0.18 0.16 0.14 0.12 0.10 0.09 0.08 0.07 0.06 0.05 0.05 0.04 0.04 0.03 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.01
19-Aug 0.18 0.16 0.14 0.12 0.10 0.09 0.08 0.07 0.06 0.05 0.05 0.04 0.04 0.03 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.01
18-Aug 0.16 0.14 0.12 0.10 0.09 0.08 0.07 0.06 0.05 0.05 0.04 0.04 0.03 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.01
17-Aug 0.14 0.12 0.10 0.09 0.08 0.07 0.06 0.05 0.05 0.04 0.04 0.03 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01
16-Aug 0.12 0.10 0.09 0.08 0.07 0.06 0.05 0.05 0.04 0.04 0.03 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01
15-Aug 0.10 0.09 0.08 0.07 0.06 0.05 0.05 0.04 0.04 0.03 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01
14-Aug 0.09 0.08 0.07 0.06 0.05 0.05 0.04 0.04 0.03 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01
13-Aug 0.08 0.07 0.06 0.05 0.05 0.04 0.04 0.03 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.00
12-Aug 0.07 0.06 0.05 0.05 0.04 0.04 0.03 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00
11-Aug 0.06 0.05 0.05 0.04 0.04 0.03 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00
10-Aug 0.05 0.05 0.04 0.04 0.03 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 NA
09-Aug 0.05 0.04 0.04 0.03 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 NA NA
08-Aug 0.04 0.04 0.03 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 NA NA NA
07-Aug 0.04 0.03 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 NA NA NA NA
06-Aug 0.03 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 NA NA NA NA NA
05-Aug 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 NA NA NA NA NA NA
04-Aug 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
03-Aug 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
02-Aug 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
01-Aug 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
5-year average

Prediction

Date Daily counts Cumulative count 10 Days Early 9 Days Early 8 Days Early 7 Days Early 6 Days Early 5 Days Early 4 Days Early 3 Days Early 2 Days Early 1 Days Early 5yr Average 1 Days Late 2 Days Late 3 Days Late 4 Days Late 5 Days Late 6 Days Late 7 Days Late 8 Days Late 9 Days Late 10 Days Late
01-Sep 8,391 97,706 153,796 162,435 171,207 183,054 199,715 213,553 227,686 247,548 270,331 290,572 319,316 363,771 413,709 465,901 533,706 612,980 719,253 838,016 1,000,928 1,121,802 1,259,556
31-Aug 13,725 89,315 148,486 156,504 167,334 182,564 195,214 208,133 226,289 247,116 265,619 291,894 332,532 378,182 425,892 487,873 560,339 657,486 766,050 914,972 1,025,466 1,151,391 1,347,674
30-Aug 10,910 75,590 132,454 141,619 154,509 165,215 176,148 191,515 209,141 224,800 247,038 281,431 320,065 360,444 412,901 474,230 556,449 648,329 774,366 867,880 974,453 1,140,573 1,298,674
29-Aug 11,072 64,680 121,179 132,208 141,369 150,725 163,873 178,955 192,355 211,383 240,812 273,870 308,420 353,306 405,784 476,136 554,755 662,601 742,618 833,809 975,953 1,111,235 1,255,442
28-Aug 6,006 53,608 109,577 117,170 124,924 135,822 148,322 159,428 175,199 199,590 226,989 255,625 292,828 336,323 394,631 459,793 549,177 615,498 691,079 808,891 921,016 1,040,537 1,193,466
27-Aug 2,249 47,602 104,042 110,927 120,604 131,703 141,565 155,569 177,227 201,557 226,984 260,018 298,640 350,416 408,276 487,646 546,535 613,648 718,260 817,822 923,952 1,059,746 1,201,538
26-Aug 1,956 45,353 105,686 114,906 125,481 134,876 148,219 168,854 192,034 216,260 247,733 284,530 333,860 388,986 464,606 520,713 584,655 684,324 779,182 880,298 1,009,676 1,144,769 1,360,082
25-Aug 4,703 43,397 109,951 120,070 129,061 141,828 161,573 183,753 206,935 237,051 272,261 319,464 372,214 444,573 498,261 559,445 654,817 745,585 842,340 966,140 1,095,408 1,301,437 1,494,974
24-Aug 7,894 38,694 107,059 115,075 126,459 144,064 163,841 184,511 211,364 242,758 284,846 331,879 396,397 444,267 498,822 583,859 664,791 751,062 861,446 976,706 1,160,409 1,332,974 1,563,830
23-Aug 5,243 30,800 91,599 100,660 114,674 130,416 146,869 168,243 193,233 226,734 264,172 315,528 353,632 397,057 464,745 529,166 597,836 685,701 777,447 923,672 1,061,032 1,244,791 1,460,561
22-Aug 2,101 25,557 83,525 95,153 108,216 121,868 139,604 160,340 188,139 219,204 261,818 293,436 329,469 385,635 439,090 496,071 568,979 645,107 766,442 880,420 1,032,899 1,211,940 1,364,318
21-Aug 2,091 23,457 87,333 99,322 111,852 128,130 147,162 172,676 201,188 240,299 269,318 302,390 353,939 403,001 455,299 522,215 592,086 703,448 808,059 948,005 1,112,331 1,252,185 1,399,194
20-Aug 3,579 21,366 90,468 101,881 116,709 134,044 157,283 183,254 218,879 245,311 275,435 322,389 367,078 414,714 475,665 539,308 640,743 736,029 863,500 1,013,178 1,140,566 1,274,470 1,453,087
19-Aug 3,629 17,787 84,817 97,161 111,593 130,940 152,560 182,219 204,224 229,302 268,392 305,595 345,253 395,995 448,979 533,424 612,750 718,872 843,480 949,531 1,061,008 1,209,708 1,400,625
18-Aug 1,231 14,158 77,336 88,823 104,222 121,432 145,038 162,553 182,514 213,628 243,241 274,806 315,195 357,368 424,583 487,723 572,191 671,374 755,786 844,516 962,875 1,114,837 1,259,365
17-Aug 757 12,927 81,099 95,159 110,871 132,425 148,417 166,642 195,050 222,088 250,908 287,784 326,289 387,659 445,308 522,431 612,988 690,059 771,074 879,140 1,017,886 1,149,846 1,328,948
16-Aug 562 12,170 89,586 104,379 124,670 139,726 156,884 183,629 209,082 236,215 270,932 307,182 364,958 419,232 491,838 577,092 649,650 725,921 827,658 958,280 1,082,512 1,251,126 1,525,604
15-Aug 379 11,607 99,554 118,908 133,268 149,632 175,141 199,418 225,297 258,409 292,984 348,090 399,854 469,104 550,418 619,623 692,368 789,403 913,987 1,032,477 1,193,298 1,455,089 1,787,239
14-Aug 895 11,228 115,024 128,914 144,745 169,420 192,904 217,938 249,968 283,414 336,719 386,793 453,782 532,439 599,383 669,752 763,618 884,132 998,752 1,154,319 1,407,559 1,728,860 2,151,784
13-Aug 1,079 10,333 118,643 133,212 155,922 177,535 200,574 230,052 260,833 309,892 355,976 417,627 490,018 551,628 616,390 702,777 813,690 919,177 1,062,350 1,295,413 1,591,115 1,980,342 2,696,416
12-Aug 1,386 9,254 119,299 139,636 158,992 179,625 206,024 233,590 277,525 318,795 374,007 438,837 494,012 552,010 629,375 728,703 823,173 951,391 1,160,112 1,424,929 1,773,503 2,414,785 3,782,058
11-Aug 1,548 7,868 118,716 135,172 152,713 175,157 198,593 235,945 271,033 317,973 373,089 419,998 469,307 535,080 619,527 699,843 808,852 986,301 1,211,442 1,507,792 2,052,996 3,215,421 6,965,511
10-Aug 1,499 6,319 108,569 122,658 140,685 159,509 189,510 217,692 255,394 299,663 337,340 376,945 429,773 497,600 562,110 649,665 792,191 973,024 1,211,050 1,648,955 2,582,607 5,594,658 NA
09-Aug 1,225 4,820 93,556 107,306 121,664 144,547 166,042 194,799 228,565 257,302 287,510 327,805 379,539 428,743 495,525 604,235 742,163 923,715 1,257,722 1,969,855 4,267,263 NA NA
08-Aug 943 3,595 80,036 90,745 107,812 123,845 145,294 170,479 191,913 214,444 244,499 283,086 319,785 369,596 450,679 553,555 688,969 938,093 1,469,250 3,182,811 NA NA NA
07-Aug 725 2,652 66,946 79,537 91,365 107,189 125,769 141,582 158,204 180,376 208,843 235,918 272,665 332,483 408,379 508,279 692,068 1,083,923 2,348,083 NA NA NA NA
06-Aug 331 1,928 57,806 66,402 77,902 91,406 102,898 114,979 131,093 151,782 171,460 198,166 241,641 296,800 369,405 502,978 787,769 1,706,531 NA NA NA NA NA
05-Aug 210 1,597 55,007 64,534 75,720 85,240 95,248 108,597 125,736 142,036 164,160 200,174 245,868 306,013 416,665 652,584 1,413,681 NA NA NA NA NA NA
04-Aug 198 1,387 56,047 65,762 74,030 82,721 94,315 109,200 123,356 142,571 173,848 213,532 265,768 361,867 566,760 1,227,762 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
03-Aug 325 1,189 56,373 63,460 70,911 80,849 93,609 105,744 122,215 149,027 183,045 227,823 310,201 485,840 1,052,466 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
02-Aug 442 864 46,111 51,525 58,746 68,017 76,835 88,803 108,285 133,003 165,538 225,396 353,017 764,734 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
01-Aug 422 422 25,159 28,685 33,213 37,518 43,362 52,875 64,945 80,832 110,060 172,377 373,418 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA

Proportion complete

Date 10 Days Early 9 Days Early 8 Days Early 7 Days Early 6 Days Early 5 Days Early 4 Days Early 3 Days Early 2 Days Early 1 Days Early 5yr Average 1 Days Late 2 Days Late 3 Days Late 4 Days Late 5 Days Late 6 Days Late 7 Days Late 8 Days Late 9 Days Late 10 Days Late
30-Nov NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
29-Nov NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
28-Nov NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
27-Nov NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
26-Nov NA NA NA NA NA NA 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
25-Nov NA NA NA NA NA 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
24-Nov NA NA NA NA 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
23-Nov NA NA NA 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
22-Nov NA NA 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
21-Nov NA 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
20-Nov 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
19-Nov 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
18-Nov 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
17-Nov 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
16-Nov 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
15-Nov 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
14-Nov 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
13-Nov 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
12-Nov 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
11-Nov 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
10-Nov 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
09-Nov 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
08-Nov 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
07-Nov 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
06-Nov 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
05-Nov 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
04-Nov 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
03-Nov 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
02-Nov 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
01-Nov 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 0.99
31-Oct 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 0.99 0.99
30-Oct 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 0.99 0.99 0.99
29-Oct 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99
28-Oct 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99
27-Oct 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99
26-Oct 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99
25-Oct 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99
24-Oct 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99
23-Oct 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.98
22-Oct 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.98 0.98
21-Oct 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.98 0.98 0.98
20-Oct 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.98
19-Oct 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.97
18-Oct 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.97 0.97
17-Oct 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.97 0.97 0.97
16-Oct 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.97 0.97 0.97 0.96
15-Oct 1.00 1.00 1.00 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.97 0.97 0.97 0.96 0.96
14-Oct 1.00 1.00 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.97 0.97 0.97 0.96 0.96 0.95
13-Oct 1.00 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.97 0.97 0.97 0.96 0.96 0.95 0.95
12-Oct 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.97 0.97 0.97 0.96 0.96 0.95 0.95 0.94
11-Oct 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.97 0.97 0.97 0.96 0.96 0.95 0.95 0.94 0.94
10-Oct 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.97 0.97 0.97 0.96 0.96 0.95 0.95 0.94 0.94 0.93
09-Oct 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.97 0.97 0.97 0.96 0.96 0.95 0.95 0.94 0.94 0.93 0.93
08-Oct 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.97 0.97 0.97 0.96 0.96 0.95 0.95 0.94 0.94 0.93 0.93 0.92
07-Oct 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.97 0.97 0.97 0.96 0.96 0.95 0.95 0.94 0.94 0.93 0.93 0.92 0.91
06-Oct 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.97 0.97 0.97 0.96 0.96 0.95 0.95 0.94 0.94 0.93 0.93 0.92 0.91 0.90
05-Oct 0.99 0.99 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.97 0.97 0.97 0.96 0.96 0.95 0.95 0.94 0.94 0.93 0.93 0.92 0.91 0.90 0.89
04-Oct 0.99 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.97 0.97 0.97 0.96 0.96 0.95 0.95 0.94 0.94 0.93 0.93 0.92 0.91 0.90 0.89 0.88
03-Oct 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.97 0.97 0.97 0.96 0.96 0.95 0.95 0.94 0.94 0.93 0.93 0.92 0.91 0.90 0.89 0.88 0.87
02-Oct 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.97 0.97 0.97 0.96 0.96 0.95 0.95 0.94 0.94 0.93 0.93 0.92 0.91 0.90 0.89 0.88 0.87 0.85
01-Oct 0.98 0.98 0.97 0.97 0.97 0.96 0.96 0.95 0.95 0.94 0.94 0.93 0.93 0.92 0.91 0.90 0.89 0.88 0.87 0.85 0.84
30-Sep 0.98 0.97 0.97 0.97 0.96 0.96 0.95 0.95 0.94 0.94 0.93 0.93 0.92 0.91 0.90 0.89 0.88 0.87 0.85 0.84 0.83
29-Sep 0.97 0.97 0.97 0.96 0.96 0.95 0.95 0.94 0.94 0.93 0.93 0.92 0.91 0.90 0.89 0.88 0.87 0.85 0.84 0.83 0.81
28-Sep 0.97 0.97 0.96 0.96 0.95 0.95 0.94 0.94 0.93 0.93 0.92 0.91 0.90 0.89 0.88 0.87 0.85 0.84 0.83 0.81 0.80
27-Sep 0.97 0.96 0.96 0.95 0.95 0.94 0.94 0.93 0.93 0.92 0.91 0.90 0.89 0.88 0.87 0.85 0.84 0.83 0.81 0.80 0.78
26-Sep 0.96 0.96 0.95 0.95 0.94 0.94 0.93 0.93 0.92 0.91 0.90 0.89 0.88 0.87 0.85 0.84 0.83 0.81 0.80 0.78 0.76
25-Sep 0.96 0.95 0.95 0.94 0.94 0.93 0.93 0.92 0.91 0.90 0.89 0.88 0.87 0.85 0.84 0.83 0.81 0.80 0.78 0.76 0.74
24-Sep 0.95 0.95 0.94 0.94 0.93 0.93 0.92 0.91 0.90 0.89 0.88 0.87 0.85 0.84 0.83 0.81 0.80 0.78 0.76 0.74 0.71
23-Sep 0.95 0.94 0.94 0.93 0.93 0.92 0.91 0.90 0.89 0.88 0.87 0.85 0.84 0.83 0.81 0.80 0.78 0.76 0.74 0.71 0.69
22-Sep 0.94 0.94 0.93 0.93 0.92 0.91 0.90 0.89 0.88 0.87 0.85 0.84 0.83 0.81 0.80 0.78 0.76 0.74 0.71 0.69 0.66
21-Sep 0.94 0.93 0.93 0.92 0.91 0.90 0.89 0.88 0.87 0.85 0.84 0.83 0.81 0.80 0.78 0.76 0.74 0.71 0.69 0.66 0.64
20-Sep 0.93 0.93 0.92 0.91 0.90 0.89 0.88 0.87 0.85 0.84 0.83 0.81 0.80 0.78 0.76 0.74 0.71 0.69 0.66 0.64 0.60
19-Sep 0.93 0.92 0.91 0.90 0.89 0.88 0.87 0.85 0.84 0.83 0.81 0.80 0.78 0.76 0.74 0.71 0.69 0.66 0.64 0.60 0.57
18-Sep 0.92 0.91 0.90 0.89 0.88 0.87 0.85 0.84 0.83 0.81 0.80 0.78 0.76 0.74 0.71 0.69 0.66 0.64 0.60 0.57 0.53
17-Sep 0.91 0.90 0.89 0.88 0.87 0.85 0.84 0.83 0.81 0.80 0.78 0.76 0.74 0.71 0.69 0.66 0.64 0.60 0.57 0.53 0.49
16-Sep 0.90 0.89 0.88 0.87 0.85 0.84 0.83 0.81 0.80 0.78 0.76 0.74 0.71 0.69 0.66 0.64 0.60 0.57 0.53 0.49 0.46
15-Sep 0.89 0.88 0.87 0.85 0.84 0.83 0.81 0.80 0.78 0.76 0.74 0.71 0.69 0.66 0.64 0.60 0.57 0.53 0.49 0.46 0.43
14-Sep 0.88 0.87 0.85 0.84 0.83 0.81 0.80 0.78 0.76 0.74 0.71 0.69 0.66 0.64 0.60 0.57 0.53 0.49 0.46 0.43 0.39
13-Sep 0.87 0.85 0.84 0.83 0.81 0.80 0.78 0.76 0.74 0.71 0.69 0.66 0.64 0.60 0.57 0.53 0.49 0.46 0.43 0.39 0.36
12-Sep 0.85 0.84 0.83 0.81 0.80 0.78 0.76 0.74 0.71 0.69 0.66 0.64 0.60 0.57 0.53 0.49 0.46 0.43 0.39 0.36 0.34
11-Sep 0.84 0.83 0.81 0.80 0.78 0.76 0.74 0.71 0.69 0.66 0.64 0.60 0.57 0.53 0.49 0.46 0.43 0.39 0.36 0.34 0.31
10-Sep 0.83 0.81 0.80 0.78 0.76 0.74 0.71 0.69 0.66 0.64 0.60 0.57 0.53 0.49 0.46 0.43 0.39 0.36 0.34 0.31 0.27
09-Sep 0.81 0.80 0.78 0.76 0.74 0.71 0.69 0.66 0.64 0.60 0.57 0.53 0.49 0.46 0.43 0.39 0.36 0.34 0.31 0.27 0.24
08-Sep 0.80 0.78 0.76 0.74 0.71 0.69 0.66 0.64 0.60 0.57 0.53 0.49 0.46 0.43 0.39 0.36 0.34 0.31 0.27 0.24 0.21
07-Sep 0.78 0.76 0.74 0.71 0.69 0.66 0.64 0.60 0.57 0.53 0.49 0.46 0.43 0.39 0.36 0.34 0.31 0.27 0.24 0.21 0.18
06-Sep 0.76 0.74 0.71 0.69 0.66 0.64 0.60 0.57 0.53 0.49 0.46 0.43 0.39 0.36 0.34 0.31 0.27 0.24 0.21 0.18 0.16
05-Sep 0.74 0.71 0.69 0.66 0.64 0.60 0.57 0.53 0.49 0.46 0.43 0.39 0.36 0.34 0.31 0.27 0.24 0.21 0.18 0.16 0.14
04-Sep 0.71 0.69 0.66 0.64 0.60 0.57 0.53 0.49 0.46 0.43 0.39 0.36 0.34 0.31 0.27 0.24 0.21 0.18 0.16 0.14 0.12
03-Sep 0.69 0.66 0.64 0.60 0.57 0.53 0.49 0.46 0.43 0.39 0.36 0.34 0.31 0.27 0.24 0.21 0.18 0.16 0.14 0.12 0.10
02-Sep 0.66 0.64 0.60 0.57 0.53 0.49 0.46 0.43 0.39 0.36 0.34 0.31 0.27 0.24 0.21 0.18 0.16 0.14 0.12 0.10 0.09
01-Sep 0.64 0.60 0.57 0.53 0.49 0.46 0.43 0.39 0.36 0.34 0.31 0.27 0.24 0.21 0.18 0.16 0.14 0.12 0.10 0.09 0.08
31-Aug 0.60 0.57 0.53 0.49 0.46 0.43 0.39 0.36 0.34 0.31 0.27 0.24 0.21 0.18 0.16 0.14 0.12 0.10 0.09 0.08 0.07
30-Aug 0.57 0.53 0.49 0.46 0.43 0.39 0.36 0.34 0.31 0.27 0.24 0.21 0.18 0.16 0.14 0.12 0.10 0.09 0.08 0.07 0.06
29-Aug 0.53 0.49 0.46 0.43 0.39 0.36 0.34 0.31 0.27 0.24 0.21 0.18 0.16 0.14 0.12 0.10 0.09 0.08 0.07 0.06 0.05
28-Aug 0.49 0.46 0.43 0.39 0.36 0.34 0.31 0.27 0.24 0.21 0.18 0.16 0.14 0.12 0.10 0.09 0.08 0.07 0.06 0.05 0.04
27-Aug 0.46 0.43 0.39 0.36 0.34 0.31 0.27 0.24 0.21 0.18 0.16 0.14 0.12 0.10 0.09 0.08 0.07 0.06 0.05 0.04 0.04
26-Aug 0.43 0.39 0.36 0.34 0.31 0.27 0.24 0.21 0.18 0.16 0.14 0.12 0.10 0.09 0.08 0.07 0.06 0.05 0.04 0.04 0.03
25-Aug 0.39 0.36 0.34 0.31 0.27 0.24 0.21 0.18 0.16 0.14 0.12 0.10 0.09 0.08 0.07 0.06 0.05 0.04 0.04 0.03 0.03
24-Aug 0.36 0.34 0.31 0.27 0.24 0.21 0.18 0.16 0.14 0.12 0.10 0.09 0.08 0.07 0.06 0.05 0.04 0.04 0.03 0.03 0.02
23-Aug 0.34 0.31 0.27 0.24 0.21 0.18 0.16 0.14 0.12 0.10 0.09 0.08 0.07 0.06 0.05 0.04 0.04 0.03 0.03 0.02 0.02
22-Aug 0.31 0.27 0.24 0.21 0.18 0.16 0.14 0.12 0.10 0.09 0.08 0.07 0.06 0.05 0.04 0.04 0.03 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.02
21-Aug 0.27 0.24 0.21 0.18 0.16 0.14 0.12 0.10 0.09 0.08 0.07 0.06 0.05 0.04 0.04 0.03 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02
20-Aug 0.24 0.21 0.18 0.16 0.14 0.12 0.10 0.09 0.08 0.07 0.06 0.05 0.04 0.04 0.03 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.01
19-Aug 0.21 0.18 0.16 0.14 0.12 0.10 0.09 0.08 0.07 0.06 0.05 0.04 0.04 0.03 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.01
18-Aug 0.18 0.16 0.14 0.12 0.10 0.09 0.08 0.07 0.06 0.05 0.04 0.04 0.03 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.01
17-Aug 0.16 0.14 0.12 0.10 0.09 0.08 0.07 0.06 0.05 0.04 0.04 0.03 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01
16-Aug 0.14 0.12 0.10 0.09 0.08 0.07 0.06 0.05 0.04 0.04 0.03 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01
15-Aug 0.12 0.10 0.09 0.08 0.07 0.06 0.05 0.04 0.04 0.03 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01
14-Aug 0.10 0.09 0.08 0.07 0.06 0.05 0.04 0.04 0.03 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01
13-Aug 0.09 0.08 0.07 0.06 0.05 0.04 0.04 0.03 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.00
12-Aug 0.08 0.07 0.06 0.05 0.04 0.04 0.03 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00
11-Aug 0.07 0.06 0.05 0.04 0.04 0.03 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00
10-Aug 0.06 0.05 0.04 0.04 0.03 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 NA
09-Aug 0.05 0.04 0.04 0.03 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 NA NA
08-Aug 0.04 0.04 0.03 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 NA NA NA
07-Aug 0.04 0.03 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 NA NA NA NA
06-Aug 0.03 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 NA NA NA NA NA
05-Aug 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 NA NA NA NA NA NA
04-Aug 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
03-Aug 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
02-Aug 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
01-Aug 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA

Data sources

Fish counts are accessed from the Fish Passage Center and river environment data from the US Army Corps of Engineers Northwest District

Fall season visual estimates of tule and bright passage are available from data.wa.gov

Additional resources

Columbia Basin Research produces spring and fall Chinook run size predictions available here.

This site shows spring Chinook run size predictions from ODFW based on a log-linear regression between end-of-season dam counts and 2 predictors: 1) the total jack dam counts from the previous year, and 2) the cumulative adult counts to date.

This site shows sockeye run size predictions from ODFW.

Data from test fishing is available here

A plethora of information including pre-season forecasts and fact sheet with catch updates is available here. Note that pre-season forecasts are generally of an index of abundance that includes the Bonneville Dam counts and harvest below Bonneville Dam, so a greater number than what is being predicted here.

Code used to generate predictions and render website is available here